/market-scenario-modeler

name: market-scenario-modeler
description: Toolkit for building TAM/SAM/SOM models, sensitivity analyses, and narrative-ready
  visuals.

Market Scenario Modeler Skill

When to Use

• Translating research findings into financial models and strategic scenarios.
• Stress-testing revenue or adoption assumptions for planning cycles.
• Packaging insights for finance, product, and executive stakeholders.

Framework

1. **Assumption Library** – document data sources, CAGR, penetration, pricing, channel mix. 2. **Scenario Matrix** – base, upside, downside cases with drivers (pricing, win rate, expansion, macro). 3. **Sensitivity Analysis** – tornado charts, Monte Carlo snippets, or sliders for key variables. 4. **Visualization Layer** – waterfall, area, and heat maps tying numbers to narratives. 5. **Decision Hooks** – highlight trigger points, required investments, and guardrails.

Templates

• Spreadsheet/notebook skeleton with clearly named inputs/outputs.
• Slide templates for TAM/SAM/SOM, share shifts, and investment asks.
• One-pager summary translating scenarios into actions and risks.

Tips

• Keep assumptions auditable with source links and timestamps.
• Align with finance on currency, inflation, and exchange assumptions before publishing.
• Pair with `run-market-landscape-study` for turnkey modeling assets.

---