/game-market-research

name: game-market-research
description: >
  Researches the market for a game concept as a forked analyst: genre health, comparable titles with
  sourced numbers, market sizing, audience, 2026 store conditions, positioning and a go/no-go call,
  saved to design/market-research/. Use for "market research", "competitive analysis", "is this game
  viable", "will this sell". Not for generating ideas (use game-brainstorm).
argument-hint: "[game concept, genre, or path to a concept doc]"
effort: high
context: fork
allowed-tools: Read, Glob, Grep, Write, WebSearch, WebFetch

AlterLab GameForge -- Market Research Workflow

Making a game nobody wants is easy. Finding the audience requires knowing where those players are, what they already play, what they wish existed, and how crowded the space is, in the market as it is now rather than as it was when the last famous indie hit launched. Market research is not about copying what sells; it is about the gap between what players want and what exists, and whether this team can reach those players through a channel it can actually win.

**How this skill runs.** It runs as a forked background analyst: no access to the conversation that launched it, and no way to ask questions. It works from the argument, the project's files and the web, states every assumption it had to make, and writes a sourced brief to disk. The person who launched it reads the brief and re-runs with corrections if an assumption was wrong.

When NOT to use me

| The user wants... | Route to | |---|---| | New game ideas, or turning "a game like X" into an original concept | `/gameforge:game-brainstorm` | | Currency design, store pricing inside the game, monetization ethics | `/gameforge:game-economy-designer` | | Store page, launch checklist, platform submission | `/gameforge:game-launch` (Steam, consoles, mobile) or `/gameforge:game-web-publish` (web) | | Whether the scope fits the deadline | `/gameforge:game-scope-check` | | Analytics and KPIs after launch | `/gameforge:game-analytics-setup` |

Critical Rules

1. **Truth over validation.** The goal is an accurate picture, not confirmation that the idea is brilliant. "Saturated", "tiny audience" and "no-go" are valid findings. 2. **Every number has a source and a date,** or is labeled as an estimate or a rule of thumb. Never invent sales figures, revenues, conversion rates, eCPMs or player counts. If a number cannot be found, say so and give a labeled range or leave the cell empty. 3. **Research, do not recall.** Use WebSearch and WebFetch for current data. The baseline in `${CLAUDE_SKILL_DIR}/references/market-context-2026.md` is dated 2026-11-05; refresh any line the recommendation depends on. 4. **Recency.** Prefer data from the last 12 months. 2025-2026 changed the market: record-high Steam release volume, AI-content flooding, crowded festivals and a wave of layoffs. 5. **Indie scale.** Size the market for this team's budget, price and reach, not for a 200-person studio. 6. **Positioning is not a feature list.** "A Metroidvania with combat" is not positioning; "a Metroidvania where every ability is a musical instrument" is. 7. **State assumptions; never ask.** This skill cannot ask questions. When information is missing, pick a sensible default, write it in the Assumptions table, and say how the conclusion would change if it were wrong. 8. **Channel is part of the market.** Steam, itch.io, web portals, Discord and others have different audiences, gates and money models. Research the channels this game can realistically use.

Step 0: Inputs and assumptions

Read, in this order, whatever exists:

1. The argument (concept text, genre, or a path to a concept document). 2. `.gameforge/project.json` (name, engine, phase, pillars). 3. `design/concept.md`, `design/concepts/`, `design/gdd/`, and earlier briefs in `design/market-research/`. 4. `production/session-state/active.md` for the current focus.

Then fill the Assumptions table. Defaults when nothing says otherwise:

| Assumption | Default | Why it matters | |---|---|---| | Team | Solo developer or 2-5 people, possibly with coding agents | Break-even and reach | | Budget | Self-funded, near-zero marketing spend | Realistic share of the market | | Primary channel | PC on Steam for premium games; web portals plus itch.io for short web games | Audience and money model | | Price | Premium PC: within the range of the closest comparables found; web: free with ads | Revenue model | | Timeline | 12-18 months to launch (premium); weeks (web) | Which trends will still matter | | Languages | English at launch | Addressable market | | Generative AI in shipped content | None unless the concept says so | Disclosure and audience sentiment |

If the concept is too vague to research (no genre, no platform, no player), say so in the brief, research the most likely interpretation, and list the two or three alternatives that should be run separately.

Phase 1: Genre analysis

Questions:

• Primary and secondary genres; the defining expectations players bring.
• Lifecycle stage: emerging, growing, mature, oversaturated. Evidence, not vibes.
• Sub-genres and hybrids forming in the space.
• The last notable commercial success in the genre, and how recent it is.

Method: search "[genre] games 2026" and "[genre] steam 2026"; read the Steam tag page and SteamDB tag data (count of games, recent releases, review distribution); check itch.io tags and, for short games, portal categories; check whether creators and press cover the genre now.

GENRE ANALYSIS
---------------------------------------------------------------
Primary genre: [genre]          Secondary: [genre, genre]
Lifecycle stage: [emerging | growing | mature | oversaturated]  Evidence: [source, date]
Player expectations: [what the game must have to be taken seriously]
Recent notable releases: [title (year, source for performance)] x3
Health signals: [release volume, review distribution, crea