/61-budget-planning

name: 61-budget-planning
description: "Lap va quan ly ngan sach marketing: phan bo theo kenh / funnel / thang, ti le test vs scale, nguong tang - cat budget (nguong cat lo), quy du phong, budget tracker va review cadence. Dung khi nhac 'phan bo ngan sach', 'budget marketing', 'budget planning', 'chi bao nhieu cho ads'."
metadata:
  version: 1.0.0
  category: strategy
license: MIT
triggers:
  - "phan bo ngan sach"
  - "budget planning"
  - "budget marketing"
  - "ngan sach campaign"
  - "budget quy"
  - "chi bao nhieu cho ads"
  - "budget allocation"
  - "nguong cat lo"
output: "File .md — budget plan: overview, phan bo theo kenh / funnel / campaign / thang, ti le test vs scale, nguyen tac dieu chinh + nguong cat lo, tracker, review cadence"
related:
  - 10-tinh-kpi-nguoc
  - 00-ke-hoach-mkt
  - 54-media-plan
  - 55-scaling-ads
  - 21-audit-ads-performance
  - 07-bao-cao-marketing

Budget Planning — Ngan Sach Marketing

> Budget khong phai con so co dinh — la cong cu ra quyet dinh: dat cuoc vao dau, rut ve khi nao. Leader phai biet: tong dang tieu bao nhieu, ROI tung kenh la gi, cai nao can tang, cai nao can cat. Goi `10-tinh-kpi-nguoc` de tinh budget toi thieu tu revenue target truoc khi phan bo.

Thu thap thong tin

Doc `.agents/product-marketing-context.md`, ke hoach marketing va report ky truoc neu co. Neu thieu, hoi toi da 4 cau:

1. **Budget tong va ky ke hoach?** Tong bao nhieu, cho thang / quy / nam? 2. **Revenue target ky nay?** De tinh marketing % of revenue va budget toi thieu. 3. **Kenh dang chay va ROI ky truoc?** Meta / TikTok / Google / Zalo / Email / Agency — kenh nao ROAS/CPL tot nhat? 4. **Co campaign lon nao can reserve budget khong?** Launch, Tet, seasonal peak?

Nguyen tac

1. **Budget follow performance** — khong cung nhac theo plan ban dau. Kenh work → tang; kenh khong work → cat. 2. **Luon giu 10-15% reserve** — khong allocate het ngay dau ky. Reserve dung cho co hoi bat ngo hoac su co. 3. **Moi dong chi ra phai co KPI do duoc** — khong co "branding khong do duoc". 4. **Khong phan bo deu** — tap trung vao kenh work nhat; kenh moi chi cap budget test toi thieu (10-15%) truoc. 5. **Tinh nguoc tu doanh thu, khong tu kenh** — budget la ket qua cua bai toan revenue, khong phai con so tuy hung.

Quy trinh

Buoc 1 — Chon phuong phap thiet lap budget

| Phuong phap | Cach tinh | Uu diem | Nhuoc diem | |-------------|-----------|---------|------------| | % Doanh thu | Budget = X% doanh thu ky vong | Don gian | Khong phan anh giai doan tang truong | | Tinh nguoc tu muc tieu (khuyen dung) | Dat doanh thu → tinh nguoc CAC/CPL | Logic, co can cu | Can biet CAC/CPL lich su | | Theo doi thu | Benchmark ngan sach nganh | Tranh under-invest | Khong phan anh dieu kien rieng |

Cong thuc tinh nguoc 7 buoc (chi tiet dung `10-tinh-kpi-nguoc`):

1. Doanh thu muc tieu
2. / AOV                      = So don can
3. / CVR chot (30-50%)        = So hot lead can
4. / CVR nurture (50-60%)     = So warm lead can
5. / CVR thu lead (20-40%)    = Tong reach can
6. Tong lead x CPL            = Budget ads toi thieu
7. + Content + Tool + Agency  = Total marketing budget

Lap 3 scenario: Conservative (CVR thap hon TB nganh, CPL cao hon) · Base case (bang TB nganh) · Optimistic (sau khi toi uu). Ke hoach chinh dung Base, chuan bi tam ly bang Conservative.

Buoc 2 — Phan bo tong quan theo bucket

| Bucket | % goi y | Muc dich | |--------|---------|----------| | Paid Ads (Performance) | 50-65% | Meta, TikTok, Google, Zalo | | Content Production | 10-15% | Video, design, copywriting | | KOL / KOC / Seeding | 5-10% | Social proof, UGC | | Agency / Freelancer | Theo scope | Neu co | | Tools / Software | 2-5% | Ads tools, design tools, email/CRM | | Campaign Reserve (du phong) | 10-15% | Co hoi bat ngo / su co — KHONG allocate truoc |

Buoc 3 — Phan bo theo kenh

Benchmark SME Vietnam (dieu chinh theo nganh va data rieng):

| Kenh | % ngan sach ads | Objective | Expected CPL/ROAS | |------|-----------------|-----------|-------------------| | Meta Ads (FB + IG) | 50-60% | Lead / Purchase | | | TikTok Ads | 15-20% | Awareness / Lead | | | Google Ads / SEO | 10-15% | Search intent | | | Zalo Ads / OA | 5-10% | Retarget / Local / Nurture | | | Kenh moi (test) | 10-15% | Validate | |

Logic phan bo: kenh dang co ROAS/CPL tot → tang ti trong; kenh moi → budget test toi thieu truoc; khong phan bo deu.

Buoc 4 — Phan bo theo funnel va ti le test vs scale

Budget split chuan performance trong tung kenh:

| Muc dich | % | Ghi chu | |----------|---|---------| | Testing (creative + audience moi) | 30% | Luon co dong test — creative fatigue den nhanh | | Scale (winner da xac nhan) | 50% | Chi scale campaign co data thang | | Retargeting | 15% | Warm audience — CPL re nhat funnel | | Lookalike | 5% | Mo rong tu tep converter |

Theo funnel: TOFU (reach/awareness) — MOFU (lead/nurture) — BOFU (conversion/retarget) — ti le tuy giai doan: launch nghieng TOFU, mature nghieng BOFU + retention.

Buoc 5 — Phan bo theo campaign va thang

| Campaign | Thang | Budget | Objective | KPI | |----------|-------|--------|-----------|-----| | Always-on (retarget + nurture) | Ca ky | | | | | Campaign A (launch/seasonal) | | | | | | Testing budget | Ca ky | | Thu kenh / angle moi | | | Reserve | — | 10-15% | | |

Buoc 6 — Nguong tang / cat budget (decision rules)

**Tang budget khi (du CA 2 dieu kien):**

• ROAS > target x 1.5 trong >= 7 ngay lien tiep, HOAC CPL < target x 0.7 va volume du
• Audience chua bao hoa (frequency < 2.5)
• Muc tang: +20-30% moi lan, khong gap doi dot ngot

**Cat / pause budget khi (nguong cat lo):**

| Dieu kien | Hanh dong | |-----------|-----------| | ROAS < break-even sau 14 ngay | Cat kenh/campaign, chuyen budget sang kenh work | | CPL > target x 2 sau 7 ngay test | Pause, thay creative/audience truoc khi bat lai | | Frequency > 4 | Audience saturation — dung scale, refresh creative | | Spend > 110% ke hoach thang | Cap daily budget, review lai phan bo |

Vi d