/10-tinh-kpi-nguoc

name: 10-tinh-kpi-nguoc
description: Tinh KPI nguoc tu doanh thu ve ngan sach va tinh xuoi tu ngan sach ra doanh thu — 3 kich ban, sensitivity analysis, break-even, phan bo ngan sach theo giai doan va kenh
metadata:
  version: 2.1.0
  category: performance
triggers:
  - "tinh KPI"
  - "can bao nhieu ngan sach"
  - "tinh nguoc tu doanh thu"
  - "ngan sach de dat X don"
  - "budget calculator"
  - "KPI calculator"
  - "CPL toi da bao nhieu"
  - "break-even ROAS"
  - "LTV CAC"
output: File .md gom bang tinh 3 kich ban, phan tich do nhay, break-even, phan bo ngan sach theo giai doan + kenh, va timeline ROI
related:
  - 00-ke-hoach-mkt
  - 07-bao-cao-marketing
  - 03-danh-gia-hieu-suat
  - 08-nghien-cuu-doi-thu
  - 54-media-plan
  - 61-budget-planning
  - 21-audit-ads-performance

Tinh KPI Nguoc

Thu thap thong tin

Hoi user toi da 4 cau sau truoc khi bat dau:

1. **Muc tieu la gi?** (Doanh thu X trieu/thang? Hay ngan sach co san X trieu va muon biet duoc bao nhieu don?) 2. **San pham / dich vu va gia ban?** (Gia trung binh 1 don hang — AOV) 3. **Nganh hang va kenh hien tai?** (Nganh gi? Dang chay kenh nao? Co du lieu CPMess/CPL hien tai khong?) 4. **Thoi gian chien dich?** (1 thang? 3 thang? 6 thang? Co pha theo giai doan khong?)

---

2 huong tinh

Huong 1 — Tinh nguoc (Reverse): Tu doanh thu → Ngan sach

Dung khi: "Toi muon dat 200 trieu/thang — can bao nhieu tien ads?"

Doanh thu muc tieu
  / AOV (gia tri don trung binh)
  = SO DON CAN
  / Ti le Booking→Customer
  = SO BOOKING CAN
  / Ti le Lead→Booking
  = SO LEAD CAN
  / Ti le Mess→Lead
  = SO TIN NHAN CAN
  x CPMess
  = NGAN SACH ADS CAN

Huong 2 — Tinh xuoi (Forward): Tu ngan sach → Doanh thu

Dung khi: "Toi co 50 trieu — chay duoc bao nhieu don?"

Ngan sach
  / CPMess
  = SO TIN NHAN DU KIEN
  x Ti le Mess→Lead
  = SO LEAD DU KIEN
  x Ti le Lead→Booking
  = SO BOOKING DU KIEN
  x Ti le Booking→Customer
  = SO DON DU KIEN
  x AOV
  = DOANH THU DU KIEN

---

Unit economics — tinh TRUOC khi chay dong ads dau tien

Hai huong tinh o tren cho biet **can bao nhieu tien**. Phan nay cho biet **bao nhieu la lo**. Phai thuoc long truoc khi bat bat ky campaign nao.

Bo cong thuc day du

So don can          = Doanh thu muc tieu / AOV
So lead can         = So don can / Close rate (Lead -> Mua)
Max CPL (hoa von)   = (Doanh thu muc tieu x Gross margin %) / So lead can
CPL target (co lai) = Max CPL / 1.5
Break-even ROAS     = 1 / Gross margin %
Target ROAS         = Break-even ROAS x 1.5   (bien an toan)
Ngan sach ads can   = So lead can x CPL target
CAC                 = Tong chi phi ads / So khach hang moi
LTV                 = AOV x Tan suat mua/nam x So nam giu chan
LTV : CAC           = LTV / CAC          (nguong khoe: >= 3:1)
Payback period      = CAC / (Loi nhuan gop moi khach moi thang)

**Gross margin** = (Doanh thu - COGS) / Doanh thu. Khong biet gross margin thi khong tinh duoc gi ca — hoi user truoc.

Vi du so cu the — khoa hoc online

Gia dinh: AOV 3,000,000d · Gross margin 70% · Close rate Lead->Mua 30% · Muc tieu 300,000,000d/thang.

| Buoc | Cong thuc | Ket qua | |------|----------|---------| | So don can | 300,000,000 / 3,000,000 | **100 don** | | So lead can | 100 / 30% | **334 lead** | | Max CPL (hoa von) | (300,000,000 x 70%) / 334 | **~628,000d** | | CPL target (co lai) | 628,000 / 1.5 | **~419,000d** | | Break-even ROAS | 1 / 0.7 | **1.43x** | | Target ROAS | 1.43 x 1.5 | **2.14x** | | Ngan sach ads | 334 x 419,000 | **~140,000,000d** | | Kiem tra lai | 300,000,000 / 140,000,000 | ROAS 2.14x — khop |

**Doc so nay the nao:** CPL cham 628K la hoa von, cham 419K la co lai. Neu thi truong dang cho CPL 700K → khong chay, phai sua offer, sua AOV, hoac sua gross margin truoc.

LTV : CAC — quyet dinh co duoc scale khong

| Ti le LTV:CAC | Y nghia | Hanh dong | |--------------|---------|----------| | < 1:1 | Lo tren moi khach hang | DUNG scale. Sua san pham hoac gia truoc | | 1:1 - 3:1 | Hoa von den kha thi | Toi uu conversion, tang AOV — chua scale | | > 3:1 | Khoe — co the tang truong | Bat dau scale co kiem soat | | > 5:1 | Rat tot | Tang ngan sach ads manh |

**Payback period** (thoi gian hoan von CAC) nen < 6 thang voi SME Viet Nam. Payback dai hon = dong tien bi ket, du ROAS dep van chet.

---

Nguong healthy tung buoc — canh bao va dung

Moi buoc trong pheu co nguong rieng. Kiem hang ngay khi ads dang chay; buoc nao vuot nguong DUNG thi xu ly buoc do truoc, khong do them tien.

| Chi so | Khoe | Canh bao | DUNG | Hanh dong khi cham nguong dung | |--------|------|---------|------|-------------------------------| | CPL / CPMess | <= target | > 1.5x target | > 2x target | Pause adset, chay `21-audit-ads-performance` | | ROAS | >= Target ROAS | < Break-even x 0.8 | < Break-even | Review offer va gia truoc khi doi creative | | CTR (Meta) | >= 1.5% | < 0.8% | < 0.5% | Thay creative — van de o hook, khong phai o target | | Frequency | < 2.0 | 2.0 - 2.5 | > 3.0 | Thay creative va mo rong tep | | Mess -> Lead | >= benchmark nganh | thap hon benchmark 15% | thap hon benchmark 30% | Van de o sale/tu van, khong phai o ads | | Lead -> Booking | 60-75% | 40-60% | < 40% | Sua quy trinh follow-up, toc do reply | | Booking -> Customer | 40-55% | 25-40% | < 25% | Van de o trai nghiem va gia, khong phai o marketing |

**Luat doc nguong:** khi nhieu buoc cung do, sua **buoc gan tien nhat truoc** (Booking->Customer), roi lui dan ve dau pheu. Sua CPL truoc khi sua close rate la dot tien nhanh hon.

KPI theo tang pheu — do o dau

| Tang | KPI chinh | Nguong tham chieu | Do o dau | |------|----------|------------------|---------| | Awareness | CPM, Reach, Video view | CPM theo nganh va mua vu | Ads Manager | | Consideration | CTR, CPC, Landing view | CTR >= 1.5% (Meta) | Ads Manager | | Conversion | CPMess, CPL, CPA | Theo bang benchmark ben duoi | Ads Manager + CRM | | Revenue | ROAS, Doanh thu | >= Target ROAS da tinh | CRM / so ban hang |

---

Benchmark Vietnam 2025–2026

T