/10-tinh-kpi-nguoc

name: 10-tinh-kpi-nguoc
description: "Dung khi can tinh nguoc tu muc tieu doanh thu ra so lead can, CPL toi da va ngan sach phai chi — kem 3 kich ban va nguong healthy tung buoc pheu. Kich hoat khi user nhac 'tinh KPI nguoc', 'CPL toi da la bao nhieu', 'can bao nhieu ngan sach', 'tinh nguoc tu doanh thu', 'muc tieu bao nhieu don', 'break-even ROAS'. Khong dung cho — phan bo ngan sach da co ra tung kenh va thang thi dung skill 61-budget-planning; lap media plan chi tiet theo funnel thi dung skill 54-media-plan; ROAS hoa von tren san TMDT sau phi san thi dung skill 76-van-hanh-san-tmdt."
metadata:
  version: 2.2.1
  category: performance
license: MIT
triggers:
  - "tinh KPI"
  - "can bao nhieu ngan sach"
  - "tinh nguoc tu doanh thu"
  - "ngan sach de dat X don"
  - "budget calculator"
  - "KPI calculator"
  - "CPL toi da bao nhieu"
  - "break-even ROAS"
  - "LTV CAC"
output: File .md gom bang tinh 3 kich ban, phan tich do nhay, break-even, phan bo ngan sach theo giai doan + kenh, va timeline ROI
related:
  - 00-ke-hoach-mkt
  - 07-bao-cao-marketing
  - 03-danh-gia-hieu-suat
  - 08-nghien-cuu-doi-thu
  - 54-media-plan
  - 61-budget-planning
  - 21-audit-ads-performance

Tinh KPI Nguoc

Thu thap thong tin

Hoi user toi da 4 cau sau truoc khi bat dau:

1. **Muc tieu la gi?** (Doanh thu X trieu/thang? Hay ngan sach co san X trieu va muon biet duoc bao nhieu don?) 2. **San pham / dich vu va gia ban?** (Gia trung binh 1 don hang — AOV) 3. **Nganh hang va kenh hien tai?** (Nganh gi? Dang chay kenh nao? Co du lieu CPMess/CPL hien tai khong?) 4. **Thoi gian chien dich?** (1 thang? 3 thang? 6 thang? Co pha theo giai doan khong?)

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2 huong tinh

Huong 1 — Tinh nguoc (Reverse): Tu doanh thu → Ngan sach

Dung khi: "Toi muon dat 200 trieu/thang — can bao nhieu tien ads?"

Doanh thu muc tieu
  / AOV (gia tri don trung binh)
  = SO DON CAN
  / Ti le Booking→Customer
  = SO BOOKING CAN
  / Ti le Lead→Booking
  = SO LEAD CAN
  / Ti le Mess→Lead
  = SO TIN NHAN CAN
  x CPMess
  = NGAN SACH ADS CAN

Huong 2 — Tinh xuoi (Forward): Tu ngan sach → Doanh thu

Dung khi: "Toi co 50 trieu — chay duoc bao nhieu don?"

Ngan sach
  / CPMess
  = SO TIN NHAN DU KIEN
  x Ti le Mess→Lead
  = SO LEAD DU KIEN
  x Ti le Lead→Booking
  = SO BOOKING DU KIEN
  x Ti le Booking→Customer
  = SO DON DU KIEN
  x AOV
  = DOANH THU DU KIEN

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Unit economics — tinh TRUOC khi chay dong ads dau tien

Hai huong tinh o tren cho biet **can bao nhieu tien**. Phan nay cho biet **bao nhieu la lo**. Phai thuoc long truoc khi bat bat ky campaign nao.

Bo cong thuc day du

So don can          = Doanh thu muc tieu / AOV
So lead can         = So don can / Close rate (Lead -> Mua)
Max CPL (hoa von)   = (Doanh thu muc tieu x Bien dong gop %) / So lead can
CPL target (co lai) = Max CPL / 1.5
Break-even ROAS     = 1 / Bien dong gop %
Target ROAS         = Break-even ROAS x 1.5   (bien an toan)
(Ban tren san TMDT: bien dong gop phai tru phi san → skill 76-van-hanh-san-tmdt)
Ngan sach ads can   = So lead can x CPL target
CAC                 = Tong chi phi ads / So khach hang moi
LTV                 = AOV x Tan suat mua/nam x So nam giu chan
LTV : CAC           = LTV / CAC          (nguong khoe: >= 3:1)
Payback period      = CAC / (Loi nhuan gop moi khach moi thang)

**Bien dong gop truoc ads** = (Gia ban - gia von - phi bien doi) / Gia ban, phi bien doi gom van chuyen, thanh toan, hoan hang, phi san (cach tinh giong `76-van-hanh-san-tmdt`). Dung gross margin thuan (chi tru gia von) se danh gia Max CPL va Break-even ROAS qua lac quan. Khong biet bien dong gop thi khong tinh duoc gi ca — hoi user truoc.

Vi du so cu the — khoa hoc online

Gia dinh: AOV 3,000,000d · Bien dong gop truoc ads 70% · Close rate Lead->Mua 30% · Muc tieu 300,000,000d/thang.

| Buoc | Cong thuc | Ket qua | |------|----------|---------| | So don can | 300,000,000 / 3,000,000 | **100 don** | | So lead can | 100 / 30% | **334 lead** | | Max CPL (hoa von) | (300,000,000 x 70%) / 334 | **~628,000d** | | CPL target (co lai) | 628,000 / 1.5 | **~419,000d** | | Break-even ROAS | 1 / 0.7 | **1.43x** | | Target ROAS | 1.43 x 1.5 | **2.14x** | | Ngan sach ads | 334 x 419,000 | **~140,000,000d** | | Kiem tra lai | 300,000,000 / 140,000,000 | ROAS 2.14x — khop |

**Doc so nay the nao:** CPL cham 628K la hoa von, cham 419K la co lai. Neu thi truong dang cho CPL 700K → khong chay, phai sua offer, sua AOV, hoac sua bien dong gop truoc.

LTV : CAC — quyet dinh co duoc scale khong

| Ti le LTV:CAC | Y nghia | Hanh dong | |--------------|---------|----------| | < 1:1 | Lo tren moi khach hang | DUNG scale. Sua san pham hoac gia truoc | | 1:1 - 3:1 | Hoa von den kha thi | Toi uu conversion, tang AOV — chua scale | | > 3:1 | Khoe — co the tang truong | Bat dau scale co kiem soat | | > 5:1 | Rat tot | Tang ngan sach ads manh |

**Payback period** (thoi gian hoan von CAC) nen < 6 thang voi SME Viet Nam. Payback dai hon = dong tien bi ket, du ROAS dep van chet.

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Nguong healthy tung buoc — canh bao va dung

Moi buoc trong pheu co nguong rieng. Kiem hang ngay khi ads dang chay; buoc nao vuot nguong DUNG thi xu ly buoc do truoc, khong do them tien.

| Chi so | Khoe | Canh bao | DUNG | Hanh dong khi cham nguong dung | |--------|------|---------|------|-------------------------------| | CPL / CPMess | <= 1.0x target | 1.0-1.5x target; > 1.5x lien tuc 7 ngay = doi creative/audience | > 3.0x target sau khi du data (Buoc 0), hoac 0 chuyen doi khi spend >= 3x | De xuat pause qua quy tac 7 (draft block); tim nguyen nhan → `03-danh-gia-hieu-suat`. Nguong goc: `skills/vi/references/quality-gates-vn.md` Gate 1 | | ROAS | >= Target ROAS | < Break-even x 0.8 | < Break-even | Review offer va gia truoc khi doi creative | | CTR (Meta) | >= 1.5% | < 0.8% | < 0.5% | Thay creative — van de o hook, khong phai o target | | Frequency (heuristic, traffic lanh, 7 ngay) | <= 2.5 | > 2.5 kem CTR giam = chuan bi / doi creative | Retargeting chiu duoc cao hon