/deal-risk-scoring

name: deal-risk-scoring
description: Assess deal health and identify at-risk opportunities using engagement signals, stakeholder mapping, and velocity analysis
license: MIT
metadata:
  author: ClawFu
  version: 1.0.0
  mcp-server: "@clawfu/mcp-skills"

Deal Risk Scoring

> Evaluate individual deal health through multi-signal analysis to prioritize coaching, intervention, and resource allocation.

When to Use This Skill

• Weekly deal reviews and pipeline scrubs
• Before QBRs to identify problem deals
• When deals stall or push close dates
• Prioritizing manager coaching time
• Allocating SE/executive resources

Methodology Foundation

Based on **Gong's Deal Intelligence research** and **Winning by Design's Revenue Architecture**, analyzing:

• Engagement velocity (email, meeting frequency)
• Stakeholder breadth (multi-threading)
• Competitive signals
• Timeline alignment
• Champion strength

What Claude Does vs What You Decide

| Claude Does | You Decide | |-------------|------------| | Scores deals on risk factors | Which deals to save vs. let go | | Identifies missing elements | Resource allocation priorities | | Suggests intervention actions | Executive sponsor assignments | | Tracks velocity trends | Final stage/probability updates | | Flags competitive threats | Win strategy adjustments |

What This Skill Does

1. **Multi-signal analysis** - Engagement, stakeholders, timeline, competition 2. **Risk scoring** - Green/Yellow/Red health status with reasons 3. **Gap identification** - Missing stakeholders, stalled stages, unclear next steps 4. **Action recommendations** - Specific interventions to reduce risk 5. **Trend tracking** - Velocity changes over time

How to Use

Assess the risk for this deal:

Deal: [Company Name]
Value: $X
Stage: [Current Stage]
Close Date: [Target Date]
Days in Stage: X

Recent Activity:
- [List emails, meetings, calls with dates]

Stakeholders:
- [Name, Title, Role in deal, Engagement level]

Competition: [Known competitors]
Champion: [Name and strength assessment]

Instructions

Step 1: Engagement Velocity Score (0-25 points)

| Criteria | Points | |----------|--------| | Meeting in last 7 days | +10 | | Email response in last 3 days | +5 | | Multiple contacts engaged | +5 | | Prospect initiating contact | +5 | | No activity 14+ days | -15 |

Step 2: Stakeholder Coverage Score (0-25 points)

| Criteria | Points | |----------|--------| | Economic Buyer identified | +10 | | Champion confirmed | +10 | | Technical evaluator engaged | +5 | | Only 1 contact | -10 | | No C-level access | -5 |

Step 3: Process Alignment Score (0-25 points)

| Criteria | Points | |----------|--------| | Clear next step scheduled | +10 | | Mutual action plan agreed | +10 | | Decision timeline confirmed | +5 | | Close date pushed 2+ times | -15 | | No defined process | -10 |

Step 4: Competitive Position Score (0-25 points)

| Criteria | Points | |----------|--------| | No competition | +15 | | Differentiation clear | +10 | | Incumbent advantage | -10 | | Price pressure | -5 | | Unknown competitive status | -5 |

Step 5: Calculate Total Risk Score

| Score | Health | Action | |-------|--------|--------| | 75-100 | 🟢 Green | Monitor, standard process | | 50-74 | 🟡 Yellow | Intervention needed | | 25-49 | 🟠 Orange | Escalate, major action | | 0-24 | 🔴 Red | Rescue or disqualify |

Examples

Example 1: At-Risk Enterprise Deal

**Input:**

Deal: TechCorp Global
Value: $250K ARR
Stage: 3 - Proposal
Close Date: Feb 28 (pushed from Jan 31)
Days in Stage: 28

Recent Activity:
- Jan 15: Proposal sent to John (Dir of Ops)
- Jan 22: Follow-up email (no response)
- Jan 29: Called, voicemail
- Feb 5: Email asking for update (no response)

Stakeholders:
- John Smith, Director of Ops, Champion (was engaged)
- No other contacts

Competition: Competitor X mentioned in discovery
Champion: John - went silent

**Output:**

## Deal Risk Assessment: TechCorp Global

### Overall Score: 28/100 🔴 RED - HIGH RISK

### Score Breakdown

| Factor | Score | Issues |
|--------|-------|--------|
| Engagement | 0/25 | No response in 14+ days |
| Stakeholders | 5/25 | Single-threaded, no EB |
| Process | 5/25 | Pushed once, no clear next step |
| Competition | 18/25 | Competitor known but not blocking |
| **Total** | **28/100** | |

### Critical Risks

1. **🔴 Champion Gone Dark** - John hasn't responded in 14 days
   - Possible: Left company, lost internal support, chose competitor

2. **🔴 Single-Threaded** - No other relationships
   - If John is out, deal is dead

3. **🟠 No Economic Buyer** - Never met decision maker
   - John may not have authority to close

### Recommended Actions

**This Week:**
1. Research John on LinkedIn - still at company?
2. Find another contact via LinkedIn/referral
3. Send "breakup email" to force response
4. Check if Competitor X is in active eval

**If No Response by Friday:**
- Move to Stage 2 or Closed-Lost
- Free up forecast slot

### Red Flags to Watch
- If proposal was forwarded to competitor
- If budget was reallocated
- If project was deprioritized

### Save Probability: 25%
Without new contact access, this deal is likely lost.

Example 2: Healthy Deal Review

**Input:**

Deal: GrowthCo Inc
Value: $85K ARR
Stage: 4 - Negotiation
Close Date: Feb 15
Days in Stage: 7

Recent Activity:
- Feb 1: Demo to full team (8 attendees)
- Feb 3: Pricing discussion with CFO
- Feb 5: Legal reviewing MSA
- Feb 7: Call scheduled for Feb 10

Stakeholders:
- Maria Lopez, VP Sales (Champion, highly engaged)
- Tom Chen, CFO (Economic Buyer, positive)
- Legal team (reviewing contract)
- 8 end users attended demo

Competition: None identified
Champion: Maria - actively selling internally

**Output:**

## Deal Risk Assessment: GrowthCo Inc

### Overall Score: 88/100 🟢 GREEN - HEALTHY

### Score Breakdown

| Factor | Score | Status |
|--------|-------|--------|
| Engagement | 25/25 | Daily activity, prospect-