/finance-based-pricing-advisor

name: finance-based-pricing-advisor
argument-hint: "[pricing change to evaluate]"
description: Evaluate pricing changes using ARPU, conversion, churn risk, NRR, and payback. Use when deciding whether a pricing move should ship.
intent: >-
  Evaluate the **financial impact** of pricing changes (price increases, new tiers, add-ons, discounts) using ARPU/ARPA analysis, conversion impact, churn risk, NRR effects, and CAC payback implications. Use this to make data-driven go/no-go decisions on proposed pricing changes with supporting math and risk assessment.
type: interactive
best_for:
  - "Evaluating price increases, discounts, or new packaging"
  - "Estimating churn and conversion risk before a pricing change"
  - "Making a go/no-go call on monetization changes"
scenarios:
  - "Should we raise prices 15% for new customers next quarter?"
  - "Evaluate a new premium tier for our SaaS product"
  - "Help me assess whether an annual discount will improve revenue"
theme: finance-metrics
estimated_time: "20-30 min"

Purpose

Evaluate the **financial impact** of pricing changes (price increases, new tiers, add-ons, discounts) using ARPU/ARPA analysis, conversion impact, churn risk, NRR effects, and CAC payback implications. Use this to make data-driven go/no-go decisions on proposed pricing changes with supporting math and risk assessment.

**What this is:** Financial impact evaluation for pricing decisions you're already considering.

**What this is NOT:** Comprehensive pricing strategy design, value-based pricing frameworks, willingness-to-pay research, competitive positioning, psychological pricing, packaging architecture, or monetization model selection. For those topics, see the future `pricing-strategy-suite` skills.

This skill assumes you have a specific pricing change in mind and need to evaluate its financial viability.

Input

**Works best with:** The pricing change on the table — increase, new tier, add-on, or discount — and current pricing. **Also useful:** Current ARPU/ARPA, conversion and churn baselines, NRR, and who's pushing for the change.

Anything supplied with the invocation itself — text after the skill name, a pasted context dump, or an appended `ARGUMENTS:` line — counts as answers already given. Use it and skip whatever it covers; don't re-ask.

**Arriving empty-handed? That works too.** The advisor opens by asking what change is proposed and what today's pricing looks like.

**Example invocation:** `Evaluate raising our Pro plan from $49 to $59/seat; ARPU $52, monthly logo churn 1.8%, NRR 108%.`

Key Concepts

The Pricing Impact Framework

A systematic approach to evaluate pricing changes financially:

1. **Revenue Impact** — How does this change ARPU/ARPA?

• Direct revenue lift from price increase
• Revenue loss from reduced conversion or increased churn
• Net revenue impact

2. **Conversion Impact** — How does this affect trial-to-paid or sales conversion?

• Higher prices may reduce conversion rate
• Better packaging may improve conversion
• Test assumptions

3. **Churn Risk** — Will existing customers leave due to price change?

• Grandfathering strategy (protect existing customers)
• Churn risk by segment (SMB vs. enterprise)
• Churn elasticity (how sensitive are customers to price?)

4. **Expansion Impact** — Does this create or block expansion opportunities?

• New premium tier = upsell path
• Usage-based pricing = expansion as customers grow
• Add-ons = cross-sell opportunities

5. **CAC Payback Impact** — Does pricing change affect unit economics?

• Higher ARPU = faster payback
• Lower conversion = higher effective CAC
• Net effect on LTV:CAC ratio

Pricing Change Types

**Direct monetization changes:**

• Price increase (raise prices for all customers or new customers only)
• New premium tier (create upsell path)
• Paid add-on (monetize previously free feature)
• Usage-based pricing (charge for consumption)

**Discount strategies:**

• Annual prepay discount (improve cash flow)
• Volume discounts (larger deals)
• Promotional pricing (temporary price reduction)

**Packaging changes:**

• Feature bundling (combine features into tiers)
• Unbundling (separate features into add-ons)
• Pricing metric change (seats → usage, or vice versa)

Anti-Patterns (What This Is NOT)

• **Not value-based pricing:** This evaluates a proposed change, not "what should we charge?"
• **Not WTP research:** This analyzes impact, not "what will customers pay?"
• **Not competitive positioning:** This is financial analysis, not market positioning
• **Not packaging architecture:** This evaluates one change, not redesigning all tiers

When to Use This Framework

**Use this when:**

• You have a specific pricing change to evaluate (e.g., "Should we raise prices 20%?")
• You need to quantify revenue, churn, and conversion trade-offs
• You're deciding between pricing change options (test A vs. B)
• You need to present pricing change impact to leadership or board

**Don't use this when:**

• You're designing pricing strategy from scratch (use value-based pricing frameworks)
• You haven't validated willingness-to-pay (do customer research first)
• You don't have baseline metrics (ARPU, churn, conversion rates)
• Change is too small to matter (<5% price change, <10% of customers affected)

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Facilitation Source of Truth

Use [`workshop-facilitation`](../workshop-facilitation/SKILL.md) as the default interaction protocol for this skill.

It defines:

• session heads-up + entry mode (Guided, Context dump, Best guess)
• one-question turns with plain-language prompts
• progress labels (for example, Context Qx/8 and Scoring Qx/5)
• interruption handling and pause/resume behavior
• numbered recommendations at decision points
• quick-select numbered response options for regular questions (include `Other (specify)` when useful)

This file defines the domain-specific assessment content. If there is a conflict, follow this file's d