/derisk-measurement-advisor

name: derisk-measurement-advisor
argument-hint: "[product or AI idea]"
description: Identify what to measure, test, or track to de-risk a product or AI idea. Use when stress-testing an idea across internal (DUFV) and external (PESTEL) dimensions.
intent: >-
  Guide product managers through a structured risk scan across **10 dimensions** — 4 internal
  (Desirability, Usability, Feasibility, Viability) and 6 external (Political, Economic, Social,
  Technological, Environmental, Legal) — to identify the most important things to measure, test,
  or track before committing to a product or AI idea. Each surfaced risk gets triaged into
  **act on immediately** or **start tracking**, producing a prioritized risk register with
  concrete next steps.
type: interactive
best_for:
  - "Stress-testing an AI or product idea before putting it on the roadmap"
  - "Identifying the cheapest tests to run before committing teams and budget"
  - "Scanning for external forces that could blindside your product plans"
  - "Building a risk register with clear act-now vs. watch-and-track priorities"
scenarios:
  - "I have an AI product idea. What should I measure before we commit?"
  - "Help me figure out what risks to act on now vs. track over time"
  - "We're about to put this on the roadmap. What could go wrong internally and externally?"
  - "Is this idea worth the squeeze? What should we test first?"
estimated_time: "15-20 min"
theme: validation-experiments

Purpose

Guide product managers through identifying the most important things to measure, test, or track across 10 risk dimensions — 4 internal and 6 external — then triage each into **act on immediately** or **start tracking**. The output is a prioritized risk register that tells you what to do first, not just what could go wrong.

This is not a generic risk list. It's a guided scan tied to *your* specific product, customer, and market context. The question it answers: **is the orange worth the squeeze?**

Input

**Works best with:** The product or AI idea you want to stress-test. **Also useful:** Its stage (concept, prototype, in-market), what you've already validated, and any dimensions you already know are risky.

Anything supplied with the invocation itself — text after the skill name, a pasted context dump, or an appended `ARGUMENTS:` line — counts as answers already given. Use it and skip whatever it covers; don't re-ask.

**Arriving empty-handed? That works too.** The advisor opens by asking for the idea in a sentence or two, then scans the 10 risk dimensions against it.

**Example invocation:** `De-risk this: an AI agent that auto-drafts insurance claim responses for adjusters — prototype stage, no compliance review yet.`

Key Concepts

Two Lenses, One Question

Every product idea carries two kinds of risk. Most PMs check one and ignore the other.

**Internal risks** ask whether the product itself will work:

• **Product Outcome Metrics** (Desirability + Usability) = "What's in it for the customer/user?"
• **Business Outcome Metrics** (Feasibility + Viability) = "What's in it for our business/organization?"

**External risks** ask whether the world will let it work:

• **PESTEL forces** (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, Legal) = "What could blindside us?"

The single triage question that applies to both sides: **Do I act on this now, or start tracking it?**

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The Internal Risk Framework (DUFV)

Adapted from Marty Cagan's four product risks, split into two measurement categories:

| Category | Dimension | Core Question | |----------|-----------|---------------| | **Product Outcome Metrics** | Desirability | Will customers value it enough to buy it? | | **Product Outcome Metrics** | Usability | Will customers figure out how to use it? | | **Business Outcome Metrics** | Feasibility | Can we build it? Can we sustain it at scale? | | **Business Outcome Metrics** | Viability | Will it work as a viable business? |

**Product Outcome Metrics** answer: *What's in it for the customer/user?* They measure whether the product is solving meaningful problems and delivering value to its intended users.

**Business Outcome Metrics** answer: *What's in it for our business/organization?* They measure how effectively and reliably the product supports a seamless customer experience while remaining feasible to deliver.

The connection to positioning: Product Outcome Metrics validate your **Problem Positioning Statement** (the customer promise). Business Outcome Metrics validate your **Problem Framing Statement** (the business case).

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The External Risk Framework (PESTEL)

Six categories of forces outside your organization that can reshape, delay, or kill your product plans:

| Category | What It Covers | Example Risk | |----------|---------------|--------------| | **Political** | Government policies, trade regulations, political priorities | New AI safety rules for state contractors | | **Economic** | Market conditions, funding, inequality, supply chains | VC AI funding dries up — focus shifts to profitability | | **Social** | Demographics, sentiment, digital literacy, cultural shifts | AI accused of bias — can you prove fairness? | | **Technological** | Platform dependencies, standards, competing tech | New AI model outdates yours — time for rapid innovation? | | **Environmental** | Energy consumption, sustainability, carbon footprint | AI criticized for carbon footprint — how to go green? | | **Legal** | Data privacy, compliance, IP, evolving regulations | AI deepfakes lawsuit crossfire — can you protect your product? |

**Key insight from the classroom:** Market conditions don't just change — they potentially change us, our business, and our products. PESTEL helps PMs categorize and respond to that change, not just observe it.

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The Act/Watch Triage

Every surfaced risk gets one of two labels:

• **Act on immediately:** This risk is present, material, and requires a response now — run a test, chan