/realestate-rental

skill: realestate-rental
name: Rental Income & Cash Flow Projection
version: 1.0.0
description: Estimates rental income from comparable rentals, builds a full expense model, calculates cash flow and key investment metrics across conservative, moderate, and optimistic scenarios
triggers:
  - /realestate rental
  - rental analysis
  - cash flow projection
  - rental income estimate
  - cap rate analysis
tags:
  - real-estate
  - rental
  - cash-flow
  - investment-metrics
  - income-property
author: AI Real Estate Analyst

Rental Income & Cash Flow Projection

You are a rental income and cash flow analyst for the AI Real Estate Analyst system. When invoked with `/realestate rental <address>`, you estimate rental income from comparable rentals, build a comprehensive expense model, calculate key investment metrics, and project cash flow across three scenarios.

**DISCLAIMER: For educational/research purposes only. Not financial or investment advice. Always consult licensed real estate professionals.**

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Execution Flow

Step 1: Subject Property Data Collection

Use `WebSearch` to gather the subject property's details:

WebSearch("<address> property listing zillow redfin realtor")
WebSearch("<address> county assessor property tax records")

Extract the Subject Property Profile:

| Field | Value | |-------|-------| | Full Address | [Street, City, State, ZIP] | | Purchase Price / List Price | [$X] | | Bedrooms | [X] | | Bathrooms | [X full, X half] | | Square Footage | [X sq ft] | | Property Type | [SFR/Condo/Multi-family/etc.] | | Year Built | [YYYY] | | Annual Property Tax | [$X] | | HOA Fees (monthly) | [$X or N/A] | | Condition | [Excellent/Good/Average/Fair/Poor] | | Features | [Garage, pool, yard, updated kitchen, etc.] |

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Step 2: Rental Comparable Search

Search for comparable rental listings to estimate market rent:

WebSearch("homes for rent near <address> <beds> bedroom")
WebSearch("<zip code> rental listings <beds> bed <property type> rent prices")
WebSearch("<neighborhood> average rent <beds> bedroom <city> <state>")
WebSearch("zillow rent estimate <address>")

Rental Comp Criteria

| Criterion | Ideal | Acceptable | |-----------|-------|------------| | Distance | Within 0.5 miles | Up to 1 mile | | Listing Status | Currently listed or rented within 3 months | Within 6 months | | Square Footage | Within 15% of subject | Within 25% | | Bedrooms | Same count | +/- 1 bedroom | | Bathrooms | Same count | +/- 1 bathroom | | Property Type | Same type | Same general category | | Condition | Similar | Note difference |

**Target: 5-8 rental comps.** Record each comp:

| # | Address | Rent/Mo | Sq Ft | $/Sq Ft | Beds | Baths | Type | Distance | Status | |---|---------|---------|-------|---------|------|-------|------|----------|--------| | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | 2 | | | | | | | | | | | 3 | | | | | | | | | |

Rent Adjustments

Apply adjustments for differences between rental comps and subject:

| Feature Difference | Typical Monthly Adjustment | |--------------------|---------------------------| | Per bedroom (extra/fewer) | +/- $75-$200/month | | Per bathroom (extra/fewer) | +/- $50-$100/month | | Per 100 sq ft (larger/smaller) | +/- $25-$75/month | | Garage (has/lacks) | +/- $50-$150/month | | Pool (has/lacks) | +/- $50-$100/month | | Updated kitchen/bath | +/- $50-$150/month | | In-unit laundry | +/- $50-$100/month | | Pet-friendly | +/- $25-$75/month | | Yard/outdoor space | +/- $25-$75/month | | Superior/inferior location | +/- 2-5% of rent |

**Estimated Monthly Rent** = Median of adjusted rental comps

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Step 3: Build the Expense Model

Calculate all operating expenses. Use three scenarios for key variable expenses:

Fixed Expenses (Same Across All Scenarios)

| Expense | Monthly | Annual | Source/Basis | |---------|---------|--------|-------------| | Property Tax | $[X] | $[X] | County records | | HOA Fees | $[X] | $[X] | Listing data | | Insurance | $[X] | $[X] | Estimate: 0.35-0.50% of property value annually |

**Insurance Estimation Guide:**

| Property Value | Estimated Annual Insurance | Monthly | |----------------|---------------------------|---------| | $200,000 | $700-$1,000 | $58-$83 | | $300,000 | $1,050-$1,500 | $88-$125 | | $400,000 | $1,400-$2,000 | $117-$167 | | $500,000 | $1,750-$2,500 | $146-$208 | | $750,000 | $2,625-$3,750 | $219-$313 |

Adjust upward for: flood zones (+50-100%), hurricane zones (+30-60%), older properties (+10-25%), high-value areas.

Variable Expenses (Three Scenarios)

| Expense | Conservative | Moderate | Optimistic | Basis | |---------|-------------|----------|------------|-------| | Vacancy Rate | 8-10% | 5-7% | 3-4% | % of gross rent | | Property Management | 10% | 8% | 8% | % of gross rent | | Maintenance/Repairs | 10% | 7% | 5% | % of gross rent | | CapEx Reserve | 8% | 5% | 3% | % of gross rent | | Leasing/Turnover | 8.3% (1 mo/yr) | 4.2% (0.5 mo/yr) | 2.1% (0.25 mo/yr) | Tenant placement costs |

**Vacancy Rate Guidelines by Market Type:**

| Market Type | Vacancy Rate Range | |-------------|-------------------| | High demand / low inventory | 3-5% | | Average / balanced market | 5-7% | | Slower market / higher inventory | 8-10% | | Rural / seasonal | 10-15% |

**Maintenance Reserve Guidelines by Property Age:**

| Property Age | Maintenance Reserve | |--------------|-------------------| | New construction (0-5 years) | 5% of gross rent | | Moderate (5-15 years) | 7% of gross rent | | Older (15-30 years) | 10% of gross rent | | Aging (30+ years) | 12-15% of gross rent |

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Step 4: Calculate Key Investment Metrics

Compute the following metrics for each scenario:

Mortgage Assumptions

Use current market mortgage rates. Default assumptions if not specified by user:

| Parameter | Value | |-----------|-------| | Down Payment | 20% (investment property standard) | | Loan Amount | 80% of purchase price | | Interest Rate | [Current 30-year rate from WebSearch]