/trade-hypothesis-ideator

name: trade-hypothesis-ideator
description: >
  Generate falsifiable trade strategy hypotheses from market data, trade logs,
  and journal snippets. Use when you have a structured input bundle and want
  ranked hypothesis cards with experiment designs, kill criteria, and optional
  strategy.yaml export compatible with edge-finder-candidate/v1.

Trade Hypothesis Ideator

Generate 1-5 structured hypothesis cards from a normalized input bundle, critique and rank them, then optionally export `pursue` cards into `strategy.yaml` + `metadata.json` artifacts.

When to Use

• After gathering trade logs, journal entries, or market observations that suggest a potential edge
• When you have a structured input bundle (JSON) with evidence snippets and want falsifiable hypotheses
• To bridge qualitative observations into quantitative experiment designs
• Before committing capital to validate a new strategy idea with kill criteria

Prerequisites

• Input JSON bundle with one or more of: `trade_log`, `journal_snippets`, `market_data`, `observations`
• Python 3.9+ with `pyyaml` installed
• No external API keys required (pure calculation skill)

Workflow

1. Receive input JSON bundle. 2. Run pass 1 normalization + evidence extraction. 3. Generate hypotheses with prompts:

• `prompts/system_prompt.md`
• `prompts/developer_prompt_template.md` (inject `{{evidence_summary}}`)

4. Critique hypotheses with `prompts/critique_prompt_template.md`. 5. Run pass 2 ranking + output formatting + guardrails. 6. Optionally export `pursue` hypotheses via Step H strategy exporter.

Scripts

• Pass 1 (evidence summary):

python3 skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/scripts/run_hypothesis_ideator.py \
  --input skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/examples/example_input.json \
  --output-dir reports/

• Pass 2 (rank + output + optional export):

python3 skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/scripts/run_hypothesis_ideator.py \
  --input skills/trade-hypothesis-ideator/examples/example_input.json \
  --hypotheses reports/raw_hypotheses.json \
  --output-dir reports/ \
  --export-strategies

Output

• `hypothesis_cards_<date>.json` — Ranked hypothesis cards with verdicts (`pursue`, `revise`, `discard`)
• `hypothesis_cards_<date>.md` — Human-readable summary with experiment designs and kill criteria
• `strategy_<hypothesis_id>.yaml` — (Optional) Edge-finder-compatible strategy export for `pursue` cards
• `metadata_<hypothesis_id>.json` — (Optional) Provenance metadata for exported strategies

Resources

• `references/hypothesis_types.md` — Taxonomy of hypothesis patterns (mean-reversion, momentum, event-driven, etc.)
• `references/evidence_quality_guide.md` — Criteria for rating evidence strength and sample size requirements