/breadth-chart-analyst

name: breadth-chart-analyst
description: This skill should be used when analyzing market breadth charts, specifically the S&P 500 Breadth Index (200-Day MA based) and the US Stock Market Uptrend Stock Ratio charts. Use this skill when the user provides breadth chart images for analysis, requests market breadth assessment, positioning strategy recommendations, or wants to understand medium-term strategic and short-term tactical market outlook based on breadth indicators. Also works WITHOUT chart images by fetching CSV data directly from public sources. All analysis and output are conducted in English.

Breadth Chart Analyst

Overview

This skill enables specialized analysis of two complementary market breadth charts that provide strategic (medium to long-term) and tactical (short-term) market perspectives. Analyze breadth chart images to assess market health, identify trading signals based on backtested strategies, and develop positioning recommendations. All thinking and output are conducted exclusively in English.

When to Use

Use this skill when:

• User provides S&P 500 Breadth Index (200-Day MA based) chart images for analysis
• User provides US Stock Market Uptrend Stock Ratio chart images for analysis
• User requests market breadth assessment or market health evaluation
• User asks about medium-term strategic positioning based on breadth indicators
• User needs short-term tactical timing signals for swing trading
• User wants combined strategic and tactical market outlook
• **User requests breadth analysis WITHOUT providing chart images** (CSV data mode)

Do NOT use this skill when:

• User asks about individual stock analysis (use `us-stock-analysis` skill instead)
• User needs sector rotation analysis without breadth charts (use `sector-analyst` skill instead)
• User wants news-based market analysis (use `market-news-analyst` skill instead)

Prerequisites

• **Chart Images Optional**: CSV data from public sources is the PRIMARY data source; chart images provide supplementary visual context
• **No API Keys Required**: CSV data is fetched from public GitHub Pages; no external API subscriptions needed
• **Language**: All analysis and output conducted in English

Output

This skill generates markdown analysis reports saved to the `reports/` directory:

• Chart 1 only: `breadth_200ma_analysis_[YYYY-MM-DD].md`
• Chart 2 only: `uptrend_ratio_analysis_[YYYY-MM-DD].md`
• Both charts: `breadth_combined_analysis_[YYYY-MM-DD].md`

Reports include executive summaries, current readings, signal identification, scenario analysis with probabilities, and actionable positioning recommendations for different trader types.

Core Principles

1. **Dual-Timeframe Analysis**: Combine strategic (Chart 1: 200MA Breadth) and tactical (Chart 2: Uptrend Ratio) perspectives 2. **Backtested Strategy Focus**: Apply proven systematic strategies based on historical patterns 3. **Objective Signal Identification**: Focus on clearly defined thresholds, transitions, and markers 4. **English Communication**: Conduct all analysis and generate all reports in English 5. **Actionable Recommendations**: Provide specific positioning guidance for different investor types

Chart Types and Purposes

Chart 1: S&P 500 Breadth Index (200-Day MA Based)

**Purpose**: Medium to long-term strategic market positioning

**Key Elements**:

• **8-Day MA (Orange Line)**: Short-term breadth trend, primary entry signal generator
• **200-Day MA (Green Line)**: Long-term breadth trend, primary exit signal generator
• **Red Dashed Line (73%)**: Average peak level - market overheating threshold
• **Blue Dashed Line (23%)**: Average 8MA trough level - extreme oversold, excellent buying opportunity
• **Triangles**:
• Purple ▼ = 8MA troughs (buy signal when reverses)
• Blue ▼ = 200MA troughs (major cycle lows)
• Red ▲ = 200MA peaks (sell signal)
• **Pink Background**: Downtrend periods

**Backtested Strategy**:

• **BUY**: When 8MA reverses from a trough (especially below 23%)
• **SELL**: When 200MA forms a peak (typically near/above 73%)
• **Result**: Historically high performance, avoids bear markets

Chart 2: US Stock Market - Uptrend Stock Ratio

**Purpose**: Short-term tactical timing and swing trading

**Key Elements**:

• **Uptrend Stock Definition**: Stocks above 200MA/50MA/20MA with positive 1-month performance
• **Green Regions**: Market in uptrend phase
• **Red Regions**: Market in downtrend phase
• **~10% Level (Lower Orange Dashed)**: Short-term bottom, extreme oversold
• **~40% Level (Upper Orange Dashed)**: Short-term top, market overheating

**Swing Trading Strategy**:

• **ENTER LONG**: When color changes from red to green (especially from <10-15% levels)
• **EXIT LONG**: When color changes from green to red (especially from >35-40% levels)
• **Timeframe**: Days to weeks

Analysis Workflow

Step 0: Fetch CSV Data (PRIMARY SOURCE - MANDATORY)

**CRITICAL**: CSV data is the PRIMARY source for all Breadth values. This step MUST be executed BEFORE any image analysis.

python3 skills/breadth-chart-analyst/scripts/fetch_breadth_csv.py

**Why CSV is PRIMARY**:

• OpenCV image detection is fragile -- chart format changes cause catastrophic failures (Issue #7)
• CSV provides exact numerical values directly from the data source
• Image analysis is SUPPLEMENTARY only (for visual trend context)

**Data Sources**: 1. **Market Breadth**: `tradermonty.github.io/market-breadth-analysis/market_breadth_data.csv`

• Provides: 200-Day MA, 8-Day MA, Trend, Dead Cross status

2. **Uptrend Ratio**: `tradermonty/uptrend-dashboard/data/uptrend_ratio_timeseries.csv`

• Provides: Current ratio, 10MA, slope, trend (UP/DOWN), color (GREEN/RED)

3. **Sector Summary**: `tradermonty/uptrend-dashboard/data/sector_summary.csv`

• Provides: Per-sector ratio, trend, status (overbought/oversold)

**Data Source Priority**: | Priority | Source | Use For | Reliability | |----------|--------|---------|-------------