/scenario-analyzer

description: "Analyze 18-month scenarios from a news headline. Generate a comprehensive English report including 1st/2nd/3rd-order impacts, recommended stocks, and a second opinion."
argument-hint: "<headline>"

Scenario Analyzer

Analyze 18-month scenarios from a news headline and assess the impact on sectors and stocks.

Arguments

$ARGUMENTS

**Argument interpretation**:

• If a headline is included: analyze that headline
• If the argument is empty: ask the user to enter a headline

**Usage examples**:

• `/scenario-analyzer Fed raises rates by 50bp` → analyze the Fed rate-hike scenario
• `/scenario-analyzer China announces new tariffs on US semiconductors` → analyze the tariff scenario
• `/scenario-analyzer OPEC+ agrees to cut oil production` → analyze the oil production-cut scenario
• `/scenario-analyzer` → ask for a headline, then analyze

Analysis Contents

| Item | Description | |------|-------------| | **Related news** | Collect related articles from the past 2 weeks via WebSearch | | **Scenarios** | 3 scenarios (Base/Bull/Bear) with probabilities | | **Impact analysis** | 1st-/2nd-/3rd-order sector impact | | **Stock selection** | 3-5 positive and 3-5 negative stocks (US market) | | **Review** | Second opinion (points out blind spots / biases) |

Execution Procedure

1. **Headline parsing**:

• Extract the headline from the argument
• If the argument is empty, ask the user for input
• Classify the event type (Monetary Policy / Geopolitics / Regulation / Technology / Commodities / Corporate)

2. **Load references**:

   Read skills/scenario-analyzer/references/headline_event_patterns.md
   Read skills/scenario-analyzer/references/sector_sensitivity_matrix.md
   Read skills/scenario-analyzer/references/scenario_playbooks.md

3. **Main analysis (scenario-analyst agent)**:

   Agent tool:
   - subagent_type: "scenario-analyst"
   - prompt: headline + event type + reference information

Output:

• List of related news articles
• 3 scenarios (Base/Bull/Bear)
• Sector impact analysis (1st/2nd/3rd-order)
• List of recommended stocks

4. **Second opinion (strategy-reviewer agent)**:

   Agent tool:
   - subagent_type: "strategy-reviewer"
   - prompt: full text of the Step 3 analysis result

Output:

• Blind spots identified
• Opinion on scenario probabilities
• Bias detection
• Alternative scenario proposals

5. **Report generation**:

• Integrate the results of both agents
• Append the final investment judgment
• Save to `reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md`

Reference Resources

• `skills/scenario-analyzer/references/headline_event_patterns.md` - event patterns
• `skills/scenario-analyzer/references/sector_sensitivity_matrix.md` - sector sensitivity
• `skills/scenario-analyzer/references/scenario_playbooks.md` - scenario templates

Important Instructions

• **Language**: Conduct all analysis and output in **English**
• **Target market**: Stock selection is limited to **US-listed equities only**
• **Time horizon**: Scenarios target **18 months**
• **Probability**: Base + Bull + Bear = **100%**
• **Second opinion**: Run it **mandatorily** (always invoke strategy-reviewer)

Output

Finally, generate a `Headline Scenario Analysis Report` that includes:

• Related news articles
• Scenario overview (through 18 months out)
• Impact on sectors / industries (1st/2nd/3rd-order)
• Positive-impact stocks (3-5 tickers)
• Negative-impact stocks (3-5 tickers)
• Second opinion / review
• Final investment judgment / implications