/technical-analyst

name: technical-analyst
description: This skill should be used when analyzing weekly price charts for stocks, stock indices, cryptocurrencies, or forex pairs. Use this skill when the user provides chart images and requests technical analysis, trend identification, support/resistance levels, scenario planning, or probability assessments based purely on chart data without consideration of news or fundamental factors.

Technical Analyst

Overview

This skill enables comprehensive technical analysis of weekly price charts. Analyze chart images to identify trends, support and resistance levels, moving average relationships, volume patterns, and develop probabilistic scenarios for future price movement. All analysis is conducted objectively using only chart data, without influence from news, fundamentals, or market sentiment.

When to Use

• User provides weekly chart images (stocks, indices, crypto, forex) and requests technical analysis
• Need to identify trend direction, strength, and potential reversal points
• Looking for support/resistance levels and key price zones
• Want probabilistic scenario planning with specific price targets
• Require objective chart-based analysis without fundamental or news considerations

Prerequisites

• **Chart Images**: User must provide weekly timeframe chart images for analysis
• **No API Keys Required**: This skill analyzes user-provided images; no external data fetches

Output

This skill generates markdown analysis reports saved to the `reports/` directory:

• **File format**: `[SYMBOL]_technical_analysis_[YYYY-MM-DD].md`
• **Content**: Comprehensive analysis including trend, S/R levels, MA analysis, volume, patterns, and 2-4 probabilistic scenarios with targets and invalidation levels

Core Principles

1. **Pure Chart Analysis**: Base all conclusions exclusively on technical data visible in the chart 2. **Systematic Approach**: Follow a structured methodology for each chart analysis 3. **Objective Assessment**: Avoid subjective bias; focus on observable patterns and data 4. **Probabilistic Scenarios**: Express future possibilities as probability-weighted scenarios 5. **Sequential Processing**: Analyze each chart individually and document findings immediately

Analysis Workflow

Step 1: Receive Chart Images

When the user provides one or more weekly chart images for analysis:

1. Confirm receipt of all chart images 2. Identify the number of charts to analyze 3. Note any specific focus areas requested by the user 4. Proceed to analyze charts sequentially, one at a time

Step 2: Load Technical Analysis Framework

Before beginning analysis, read the comprehensive technical analysis methodology:

Read: references/technical_analysis_framework.md

This reference contains detailed guidance on:

• Trend analysis and classification
• Support and resistance identification
• Moving average interpretation
• Volume analysis
• Chart patterns and candlestick analysis
• Scenario development and probability assignment
• Analysis discipline and objectivity

Step 3: Analyze Each Chart Systematically

For each chart image, conduct a systematic analysis following this sequence:

3.1 Trend Analysis

• Identify trend direction (uptrend, downtrend, sideways)
• Assess trend strength (strong, moderate, weak)
• Note trend duration and potential exhaustion signals
• Examine higher highs/lows or lower highs/lows pattern

3.2 Support and Resistance Analysis

• Mark significant horizontal support levels
• Mark significant horizontal resistance levels
• Identify trendline support/resistance
• Note any support-resistance role reversals
• Assess confluence zones where multiple S/R levels align

3.3 Moving Average Analysis

• Determine price position relative to 20-week, 50-week, and 200-week MAs
• Assess MA alignment (bullish, bearish, or neutral configuration)
• Note MA slope (rising, falling, flat)
• Identify any recent or pending MA crossovers
• Observe MAs acting as dynamic support or resistance

3.4 Volume Analysis

• Assess overall volume trend (increasing, decreasing, stable)
• Identify volume spikes and their context (at support/resistance, on breakouts)
• Check for volume confirmation or divergence with price
• Note any volume climax or exhaustion patterns

3.5 Chart Patterns and Price Action

• Identify any reversal patterns (hammers, shooting stars, engulfing patterns, etc.)
• Identify any continuation patterns (flags, triangles, etc.)
• Note significant candlestick formations
• Observe recent breakouts or breakdowns

3.6 Synthesize Observations

• Integrate all technical elements into coherent current assessment
• Identify the most significant factors influencing the chart
• Note any conflicting signals or ambiguity
• Establish key levels that will determine future direction

Step 4: Develop Probabilistic Scenarios

For each analyzed chart, create 2-4 distinct scenarios for future price movement:

Scenario Structure

Each scenario must include: 1. **Scenario Name**: Clear, descriptive title (e.g., "Bull Case: Breakout Above Resistance") 2. **Probability Estimate**: Percentage likelihood based on technical factors (must sum to 100% across all scenarios) 3. **Description**: What this scenario entails and how it would unfold 4. **Supporting Factors**: Technical evidence supporting this scenario (minimum 2-3 factors) 5. **Target Levels**: Expected price levels if scenario plays out 6. **Invalidation Level**: Specific price level that would negate this scenario

Typical Scenario Framework

• **Base Case Scenario (40-60%)**: Most likely outcome based on current structure
• **Bull Case Scenario (20-40%)**: Optimistic scenario requiring upside breakout
• **Bear Case Scenario (20-40%)**: Pessimistic scenario requiring downside breakdown
• **Alternative Scenario (5-15%)**: Lower probability but technically plausible outcome

Adjust probabilities based on strength of supporting technical factors. Ensure