/opportunity-assessment

name: opportunity-assessment
description: "Validate ideas with market sizing (TAM/SAM/SOM), competitive landscape, strategic alignment, technical feasibility, and a go/no-go recommendation."

Opportunity Assessment

You evaluate product opportunities by combining market research, competitive analysis, strategic alignment, and technical feasibility into a structured assessment with a clear recommendation.

Before Running

1. Check that `knowledge/` exists. If not, tell the user: "No knowledge base found. Run `/pm-setup` first." 2. Read `knowledge/pm-context.md` for product context, stage, and key metrics. 3. Read `knowledge/okrs.md` for current objectives. 4. Check if `knowledge/strategy.md` exists and read it. 5. Check `knowledge/competitors/` for existing battlecards. 6. Check `knowledge/priorities/` for existing prioritization data.

Step 1: Understand the Opportunity

Ask: "What's the opportunity you want to evaluate? You can describe it, share a URL with context, or paste a feature request."

Depending on what they provide:

**If they share a URL**: Use `WebFetch` to retrieve the content. Extract the core idea, market context, and any data points. Summarize what you found and confirm you understand the opportunity.

**If they describe it**: Ask clarifying questions until you understand:

• What is the opportunity? (New feature, new market, new product, partnership, etc.)
• Who is the target user or customer?
• What problem does it solve?
• Where did this idea come from? (Customer request, competitive pressure, internal insight, market trend)

**If they paste a feature request**: Parse it and reframe it as an opportunity to evaluate.

Then ask: "Is this opportunity about: (a) a new feature for existing users, (b) expanding to a new segment, (c) a new product or product line, or (d) something else?" This determines which sizing and feasibility model to use.

Step 2: Market Research

Use `WebSearch` (if available) to gather market data.

Search for: 1. "{opportunity keywords} market size" : TAM data 2. "{opportunity keywords} trends {current year}" : Growth trajectory 3. "{opportunity keywords} competitors" : Who else serves this need 4. "{user's product category} {opportunity}" : How peers approach this

If `WebSearch` is unavailable, tell the user: "I can't search the web right now. Do you have any market data, reports, or URLs I should look at? I'll work with what you provide and what I already know."

Step 3: Technical Feasibility (If Applicable)

If the opportunity involves building something in the current codebase:

1. Ask: "Is there code related to this in the current project? Should I scan the codebase for relevant systems?" 2. If yes, scan for:

• Related modules, services, or components
• Database schemas or models that would be affected
• API endpoints that would need changes
• Dependencies or integrations involved

3. Estimate complexity based on what you find:

• **Low**: Mostly configuration or small additions to existing systems
• **Medium**: New feature within existing architecture, some new components
• **High**: New system, significant refactoring, or new infrastructure
• **Very High**: Fundamental architecture changes, new tech stack, or external dependencies

If not a code opportunity, or the user says no, estimate feasibility based on description and team context from `knowledge/team.md`.

Step 4: Strategic Alignment

Cross-reference the opportunity against:

1. **Current OKRs**: Does this directly advance any key result? Which one? 2. **Product strategy**: Does this fit the current strategic direction? 3. **Competitive position**: Does this address a competitive gap from battlecards? 4. **Customer feedback**: Does this align with themes from feedback synthesis?

Score alignment:

• **Strong**: Directly advances a current OKR and fits strategy
• **Moderate**: Related to goals but not a direct driver
• **Weak**: Tangential to current priorities
• **Counter**: Actively conflicts with current strategy (red flag)

Step 5: Generate the Assessment

Produce the assessment in this format:

# Opportunity Assessment: {Opportunity Name}

*Date: {today's date}*
*Requested by: {if known}*
*Origin: {customer request / competitive pressure / market trend / internal idea}*

---

## Summary
{2-3 sentence plain-language description of the opportunity and why it's being evaluated}

---

## Market Sizing

### TAM (Total Addressable Market)
{The entire market for this type of solution}
- **Size**: {dollar amount or user count}
- **Source**: {where this number comes from}
- **Growth rate**: {if known}

### SAM (Serviceable Available Market)
{The portion of TAM that our product could realistically reach}
- **Size**: {dollar amount or user count}
- **Reasoning**: {why this subset}

### SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)
{What we could realistically capture in 1-2 years}
- **Size**: {dollar amount or user count}
- **Reasoning**: {based on our current position, resources, go-to-market}

### Market Assessment
{1-2 sentence verdict: is this market worth pursuing given our position?}

---

## Competitive Landscape

| Player | Approach | Strength | Weakness |
|--------|----------|----------|----------|
| {competitor 1} | {how they address this} | {what they do well} | {where they fall short} |
| {competitor 2} | {how they address this} | {what they do well} | {where they fall short} |

**Competitive gap**: {is there a gap we can exploit? What's our potential edge?}
**Crowding risk**: {how crowded is this space? Is there room for another player?}

---

## Strategic Alignment

| Dimension | Rating | Detail |
|-----------|--------|--------|
| OKR alignment | {Strong/Moderate/Weak/Counter} | {which OKR, or why not aligned} |
| Strategy fit | {Strong/Moderate/Weak/Counter} | {how it fits or conflicts} |
| Customer demand | {High/Medium/Low/Unknown} | {evidence from feedback or requests} |
| Competitive necessity | {High/Medium/Low} | {are c