/market-analyzer

name: market-analyzer
description: 'Structured market analysis with TAM/SAM/SOM sizing, trends, and competitive landscape via WebSearch, producing investor-grade cited reports. Triggers on: "market size", "TAM SAM SOM", "market opportunity", "industry analysis", "how big is the market", "market trends". NOT for financial modeling or pricing.'
metadata:
  version: 1.0.1
  category: research
  tags: [market-sizing, tam-sam-som, trends, industry]
  difficulty: intermediate
  phase: define

Market Analyzer

Produces structured market analysis reports: sizes the addressable market using top-down and bottom-up methods, identifies growth trajectories and adoption stages, segments customers, and assesses timing. Every estimate cites a data source or states its assumption explicitly.

Reference Files

| File | Contents | Load When | | ------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------ | --------- | | `references/tam-sam-som.md` | TAM/SAM/SOM definitions, calculation formulas, common mistakes | Always | | `references/trend-analysis.md` | Trend categorization framework, adoption lifecycle, timing signals | Always | | `references/market-sizing.md` | Data sources, estimation techniques, confidence framework | Always |

Prerequisites

• Product, feature, or business idea description
• Target geography (default: global)
• Target customer segment (if known)

Workflow

Phase 1: Input Understanding

1. **Classify the input** — Determine whether the subject is a product idea, feature, market category, or industry vertical. 2. **Extract key attributes:**

• Target customer profile
• Value proposition or core problem solved
• Geography and regulatory jurisdiction
• Price range or monetization model (if known)
• Competitive alternatives

3. **Clarify gaps** — If critical context is missing (target customer, geography, or value proposition), ask 3-5 targeted clarifying questions before proceeding.

Phase 2: Market Research

Use WebSearch to gather quantitative market data:

1. **Industry reports** — Search for market size reports from Statista, Grand View Research, Fortune Business Insights, IBISWorld, and similar aggregators. 2. **Growth rates** — Identify CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) for the relevant market and adjacent segments. 3. **Funding signals** — Search Crunchbase, PitchBook coverage, and venture capital trends in the space. 4. **Consumer trends** — Google Trends data, social media volume, and news sentiment. 5. **Academic research** — Search Semantic Scholar for relevant market studies, adoption research, and behavioral economics papers. 6. **Government/public data** — Census Bureau, BLS, World Bank, OECD datasets for demographic and economic baselines.

For each data point, record the source, publication date, and methodology (if available).

Phase 3: TAM/SAM/SOM Calculation

Apply both estimation approaches and cross-validate:

**Top-down (from total industry):**

TAM = Total industry revenue or total potential buyers x average revenue per buyer
SAM = TAM x % addressable by geography, segment, and channel
SOM = SAM x realistic capture rate (year 1-3)

**Bottom-up (from unit economics):**

Reachable customers = Identified target accounts or users in reachable channels
SOM = Reachable customers x conversion rate x average revenue per customer
SAM = SOM scaled to full serviceable segment (remove channel constraints)
TAM = SAM scaled to total market (remove geographic/segment constraints)

Cross-validate the two approaches. If they diverge by more than 3x, investigate the discrepancy and document the reason.

Phase 4: Trend and Timing Assessment

Evaluate four dimensions:

1. **Market growth trajectory** — Classify as emerging (pre-revenue), growing (CAGR > 10%), mature (CAGR 0-5%), or declining (negative CAGR). 2. **Technology adoption stage** — Map to Rogers curve: innovators (< 2.5%), early adopters (2.5-16%), early majority (16-50%), late majority (50-84%), laggards (> 84%). 3. **Regulatory environment** — Identify tailwinds (subsidies, mandates) and headwinds (restrictions, compliance costs). 4. **Macro trends** — Economic conditions, demographic shifts, technological enablers that accelerate or hinder the market.

Phase 5: Customer Segmentation

Identify 2-5 distinct customer segments:

• **Demographics** — Age, income, geography, company size (B2B)
• **Behavioral** — Usage patterns, purchase triggers, switching costs
• **Willingness to pay** — Price sensitivity signals, competitive pricing data
• **Segment sizing** — Estimated size and growth rate per segment

Phase 6: Report Generation

Produce the structured output below.

Output Format

## Market Analysis: {Subject}

### Executive Summary
**Market Opportunity Score: {1-5}/5**
{2-3 sentence summary of the opportunity, key market size, and timing assessment.}

### TAM / SAM / SOM

| Level | Value | Methodology | Confidence |
|-------|-------|-------------|------------|
| TAM | ${amount} | {Top-down / Bottom-up / Both} | {High/Medium/Low} |
| SAM | ${amount} | {methodology summary} | {High/Medium/Low} |
| SOM (Year 1) | ${amount} | {methodology summary} | {High/Medium/Low} |
| SOM (Year 3) | ${amount} | {methodology summary} | {High/Medium/Low} |

**Top-down calculation:**
{Step-by-step derivation with sources}

**Bottom-up calculation:**
{Step-by-step derivation with sources}

**Cross-validation:**
{Comparison of approaches, explanation of any divergence}

### Market Trends

| Dimension | Assessment | Evidence |
|-----------|-----------|----------|
| Growth trajectory | {Emerging/Growing/Mature/Declining} | {CAGR, data source} |
| Adoption stage | {Innovators/Early Adopters/Early Majority/Late Majority} | {penetration %, signal} |
| Regulatory | {Tailwind/Neutral/Head