/pmf

name: pmf-strategy
description: When the user wants to validate product-market fit, measure PMF, or plan before scaling. Also use when the user mentions "PMF," "product-market fit," "product market fit," "Sean Ellis test," "very disappointed," "vitamin vs painkiller," "PMF validation," "premature scaling," or "validate before scale." For GTM after validation, use gtm-strategy.
metadata:
  version: 1.1.1

Strategies: Product-Market Fit

Guides product-market fit (PMF) validation and measurement. PMF occurs when a product precisely meets market needs, creating widespread demand. ~99% of startups fail primarily due to PMF issues (vitamin problems, premature scaling). Use this skill when validating before scaling, measuring PMF, or diagnosing traction problems.

**When invoking**: On **first use**, if helpful, open with 1–2 sentences on what this skill covers and why it matters, then provide the main output. On **subsequent use** or when the user asks to skip, go directly to the main output.

Definition

**Product-market fit** (Marc Andreessen): "Being in a good market with a product that can satisfy that market."

**Signals**: Customers buying rapidly; usage growing; word-of-mouth spreading organically; high retention, low churn.

Sean Ellis 40% Test

**Question**: "How would you feel if you could no longer use [product]?"

| Response | Meaning | |----------|---------| | **Very disappointed** | Strong PMF signal | | Somewhat disappointed | — | | Not disappointed | — | | N/A – I no longer use | — |

**Threshold**: 40%+ answering "very disappointed" = PMF achieved. Below 40% = iterate.

| Score | Action | |-------|--------| | **Below 25%** | Significant changes needed | | **25–39%** | Close to PMF; iterate and improve | | **40%+** | PMF achieved |

**Best practice**: Survey 40–50 active users (used product 2+ times in last 14 days). Segment by user type—some segments may have PMF while others don't.

**Limitation**: Combine with retention curves, engagement, organic growth; avoid false positives in early stages.

Vitamin vs Painkiller

| Type | Definition | Adoption | |------|-------------|----------| | **Painkiller** | Solves urgent, acute problems; users actively seek solutions | Fast adoption; high retention; willing to pay | | **Vitamin** | Nice-to-have; incremental benefit; users can live without | Slow adoption; expensive marketing to succeed |

**~99% of failures**: Solving vitamin problems instead of real pain. Validate: Would users be genuinely inconvenienced if your product vanished?

**Validation**: Talk to users; listen for frustration; run pre-sells; check frequency and time-sensitivity of the problem.

Key Indicators

| Indicator | Strong PMF | |-----------|------------| | **Retention** | High; low churn | | **CAC vs CLTV** | CAC decreasing relative to CLTV | | **Activation** | Strong conversion to paying customers | | **Growth** | Organic; word-of-mouth | | **NPS** | High; enthusiastic advocacy |

Common Failures

| Failure | Avoid | |--------|-------| | **Vitamin problems** | Solve urgent pain, not nice-to-have | | **Vanity feedback** | Use retention data, not polite opinions | | **Premature scaling** | Validate PMF before scaling acquisition | | **Misalignment** | Customer-problem fit before product-build |

Product Research & SaaS Context

| Area | Notes | |------|-------| | **Product positioning** | Target audience; core value; competitive differentiation | | **Market research** | Competitor analysis; surveys; interviews to validate assumptions | | **SaaS form** | Cloud delivery; subscription; ease of use; dependency on industry standardization | | **Enterprise / ACV** | Customization; data security/private deployment; procurement cycles; buy vs SaaS trade-offs |

**Use**: When discussing PMF for SaaS or enterprise—factor in product research rigor and ACV-specific challenges. See **gtm-strategy** for enterprise GTM.

PMF as Continuous Process

PMF is increasingly a **continuous validation**—markets evolve; re-measure as you expand. Target "PMF for a niche" first (40%+ in one segment) before broadening.

Output Format

• **PMF assessment** (current signals, Sean Ellis score if available)
• **Vitamin vs Painkiller** diagnosis
• **Validation** approach (interviews, pre-sells, metrics)
• **Next steps** (iterate vs scale)

Related Skills

• **cold-start-strategy**: First users; avoid large-scale paid before PMF
• **indie-hacker-strategy**: Indie hacker PMF; monetize day one; Ramen profitability
• **paid-ads-strategy**: PMF testing (small budget) vs conversion-driven (post-PMF)
• **google-ads**: PMF testing with landing page + $47–500
• **gtm-strategy**: GTM framework; PMF validation before scaling GTM
• **product-launch**: Launch execution; validate PMF before scaling
• **retention-strategy**: Retention as PMF signal; churn as anti-signal