/subscription-lifecycle

name: subscription-lifecycle
description: When the user wants to optimize their subscription business end-to-end — from trial start through renewal, cancellation, and win-back. Use when the user mentions "subscription lifecycle", "trial conversion", "churn", "cancellation", "win-back", "lapsed subscribers", "dunning", "billing retry", "grace period", "renewal rate", "subscriber LTV", or "resubscribe". For paywall design and pricing strategy, see monetization-strategy. For subscription analytics dashboards, see app-analytics.
metadata:
  version: 1.0.0

Subscription Lifecycle

You optimize every stage of the subscription journey: trial → paid → renewal → cancellation recovery → win-back.

The Subscription Lifecycle

Install → Trial start → [Trial period] → Conversion → Renewal → ... → Cancel → Win-back
            ↓                               ↓              ↓           ↓
         No convert                    Voluntary       Involuntary   Lapsed
         (nurture)                     (exit survey)   (dunning)     (campaign)

Key Metrics at Each Stage

| Stage | Metric | Formula | Benchmark | |-------|--------|---------|-----------| | Trial | Trial start rate | Trials / Downloads | > 20% | | Trial | Trial-to-paid | Conversions / Trials | 25–40% strong | | Retention | Month 1 renewal | M1 renewals / Subscribers | > 70% | | Retention | Month 6 renewal | M6 renewals / Subscribers | > 50% | | Churn | Monthly churn | Lost subs / Start subs | < 5% good; < 2% excellent | | Revenue | MRR | Active subs × monthly price | — | | Revenue | LTV | ARPU / Monthly churn rate | — | | Recovery | Dunning recovery | Recovered / Failed payments | > 30% | | Win-back | Resubscribe rate | Returns / Lapsed | 5–15% |

Stage 1 — Trial Optimization

Trial Length

| App Type | Recommended trial | Notes | |----------|------------------|-------| | Simple utility | 3–7 days | Value obvious quickly | | Health/fitness | 7–14 days | Habit formation needs time | | Productivity | 7–14 days | Workflow integration | | Education | 7–14 days | First lesson completion | | Entertainment | 7 days | Binge behavior |

**Test:** Monthly apps with a 7-day trial vs. 14-day trial — conversion rate may drop slightly but LTV often increases.

Trial Nurture Sequence

Send in-app (or push) messages during the trial to drive activation:

Day 0: Welcome — "Your trial has started. Here's how to get the most from it."
Day 1: Core feature highlight — "Try [key feature] today"
Day 3: Progress / social proof — "Users who do X get 3× better results"
Day 5 (7-day trial): Urgency — "2 days left in your trial"
Day 6: Value recap — "Here's what you've done / could do with premium"
Day 7: Last day — "Your trial ends today"

**Rule:** Messages should show value, not just create pressure.

Trial End — Conversion Moment

At trial end, show a paywall that:

• Recaps what the user achieved during the trial
• Shows the most-used premium features
• Offers 3 plan options (monthly / annual / lifetime if applicable)
• Highlights savings on annual ("Save 40%")

See `monetization-strategy` for paywall design details.

Stage 2 — Reducing Voluntary Churn

Why Users Cancel (and How to Fix It)

| Reason | Signal | Fix | |--------|--------|-----| | Forgot they subscribed | Low sessions, no activation | Improve onboarding + notification strategy | | Not enough value | Low feature usage | Push underused high-value features | | Too expensive | Price sensitivity | Introduce lower-tier or pause option | | Problem with app | 1-star reviews | Fix the bug, reply to reviews | | Found alternative | — | Monitor competitor installs | | Seasonal use | Churns at same time yearly | Offer a pause option |

The Cancellation Flow

When a user initiates cancellation (iOS — `ManagedSubscriptionGroup`):

1. **Offer a pause** before full cancel: "Pause for 1–3 months instead of cancelling" 2. **Show value recap**: "You've used [feature] X times this month" 3. **Offer a discount**: Only as last resort — 20–30% off for 3 months 4. **Exit survey**: Always ask "Why are you cancelling?" (1 tap, not an essay)

**Cancellation exit survey options:**

• Too expensive
• Not using it enough
• Missing a feature I need
• Switching to a competitor
• Technical issues
• Just taking a break

Engagement Signals to Watch

Users at high churn risk:

• Sessions < 1 per week (down from higher baseline)
• Core feature not used in 14+ days
• Push notifications disabled
• Last session > 7 days ago

Trigger a re-engagement push or in-app message before they cancel.

Stage 3 — Involuntary Churn (Failed Payments)

Involuntary churn accounts for **20–40%** of all subscription cancellations.

Dunning Strategy

| Day | Action | |-----|--------| | 0 | Payment fails silently — Apple/Google retry | | 3 | Apple/Google retry #2 | | 7 | Apple/Google retry #3 — show in-app "Update payment method" banner | | 10 | Send push: "Your subscription couldn't be renewed — tap to update" | | 14 | Grace period ends — subscription suspended | | 15 | Final in-app message: "Reactivate to keep access" |

**Grace period:**

• iOS: 6 days (configurable up to 16 in App Store Connect)
• Android: 3 days (configurable)

Maximize grace period length — every extra day recovers more subscribers.

RevenueCat Integration

RevenueCat handles dunning automatically. Key settings:

• Enable Billing Retry (iOS) / Account Hold (Android)
• Configure grace period to maximum allowed
• Use RevenueCat webhooks to trigger in-app messaging at each failure event

See `revenuecat.md` integration guide.

Stage 4 — Win-Back Campaigns

Target lapsed subscribers (cancelled or expired in last 30–90 days).

Win-Back Offer Ladder

Start with the softest offer; escalate only if no response:

Week 1 after lapse:  "We miss you" — highlight new features added since they left
Week 3:              "Come back for 30% off your first month back"
Week 6:              "3 months at 50% off — best offer we'll m