/evaluate-scenario-impact

name: evaluate-scenario-impact
description: "Evaluate a fixed candidate, research path, or portfolio under one explicit scenario using stable criteria and return impact, tradeoffs, and failure triggers."

evaluate-scenario-impact

Purpose

Evaluate one fixed candidate, path, or portfolio under one explicit scenario.

Input contract

required: [candidate, scenario, evaluation_criteria]
optional: [baseline, metric_definitions, vulnerability_rules]
constraints: [criteria, units, and scenario assumptions remain fixed during evaluation]

Procedure

1. Instantiate the candidate under scenario assumptions. 2. Compute or qualitatively assess each declared criterion. 3. Identify tradeoffs, vulnerabilities, and failure triggers. 4. Return impact evidence and unresolved uncertainties.

If the impact estimate depends on uncertain drivers or parameter choices, consider `assess-sensitivity` as the next tactic.

Output contract

produces: [impact_assessment, metric_results, tradeoffs, vulnerabilities, failure_triggers]
delta_fields: [findings, uncertainties, decisions]

Quality gates

• All declared criteria are addressed with units or explicit qualitative scales.
• Vulnerable or failing members are named, not hidden in aggregate scores.
• Scenario assumptions and baseline are cited for every comparison.

Parameterization

Caller supplies candidate schema, scenario schema, criteria, metric formulas, baseline, and vulnerability thresholds.

Failure and counterexamples

Reject evaluations that change scenario assumptions midstream or report aggregate impact without member-level checks.

Provenance map

• concept: convergence/portfolio-evaluation-per-scenario
• concept: experiment-execution/scenario-impact-assessment
• intermediate: Pass3/evaluate-scenario
• intermediate: Pass3/assess-scenario-impact