/analyze-future-scenarios

name: analyze-future-scenarios
description: "Construct and compare plausible future/competitive/temporal/stress scenarios and test whether the research path remains robust across them."

analyze-future-scenarios

Purpose

Construct and compare plausible future/competitive/temporal/stress scenarios and test whether the research path remains robust across them.

Input contract

required: [research_path, scenario_axes, uncertainty_drivers]
optional: [assumptions, prior_findings, evidence_updates]
constraints: [consume named scientific objects; preserve provenance; keep unresolved uncertainty visible]

Execution protocol

Do not perform called SOP operations inline; each loaded SOP owns its contract and thresholds.

1. You MUST load skill `identify-scenario-drivers` to rank the horizon's high-impact uncertainties. 2. You MUST load skill `enumerate-dimension-values` to enumerate representative, boundary, and adversarial driver values. 3. You MUST load skill `evaluate-compatibility` to prune incompatible combinations while retaining near-boundary cases. 4. You MUST load skill `construct-scenario` to assemble distinct baseline, counterfactual, and extreme-but-plausible worlds. 5. You MUST load skill `evaluate-scenario-impact` to score the research path inside each fixed world and record failure triggers. 6. You MUST load skill `evaluate-scenario-robustness` to aggregate per-world results and expose fragile assumptions. 7. You MUST load skill `predict-competitive-move` to forecast credible competitor moves and preemption risk. 8. You MUST load skill `analyze-temporal-trajectory` to order outcomes through time and reveal regime changes.

Deviation: reorder only when a dependency is already satisfied or unavailable; record the reason and confidence effect.

Output contract

produces: [scenario_set, impact_comparison, robustness_assessment]
delta_fields: [findings, decisions]

Thresholds and quality gates

• Each output is traceable to an input object, operation, and evidence reference.
• Scope, assumptions, and unresolved alternatives remain explicit.
• Retain $\alpha$ 0.05 and power 0.8 wherever the predeclared statistical design requires them.

Failure and counterexamples

Stop synthesis when a required object is absent, a precondition is violated, or a counterexample invalidates the proposed conclusion; return the partial delta with the failure recorded.

Provenance map

• intermediate: experiment-execution/scenario-planning [campaign]
• resolved: morphological-scenario
• resolved: narrative-scenario
• resolved: stress-scenario
• resolved: competitive-scenario
• resolved: temporal-scenario
• resolved: parameter-space-construction
• resolved: cross-consistency-filtering
• resolved: strategy-robustness-testing

Preserved source criteria ledger

| source | criterion | treatment | |---|---|---| | resolved v3 entries above | node-specific criteria | retained and specialized to the v4 object contract | | experiment-execution/statistical-testing | $\alpha$ = 0.05 | fixed value retained where applicable | | experiment-execution/sample-size-estimation | power = 0.8 | fixed value retained where applicable |

Context checkpoint / Delta notes

Return the node-specific research-state delta and preserve findings, evidence updates, uncertainties, decisions, open questions, and recommended jumps as applicable.