/stanley-druckenmiller-investment

name: stanley-druckenmiller-investment
description: Druckenmiller Strategy Synthesizer - Integrates 8 upstream skill outputs (Market Breadth, Uptrend Analysis, Market Top, Macro Regime, FTD Detector, VCP Screener, Theme Detector, CANSLIM Screener) into a unified conviction score (0-100), pattern classification, and allocation recommendation. Use when user asks about overall market conviction, portfolio positioning, asset allocation, strategy synthesis, or Druckenmiller-style analysis. Triggers on queries like "What is my conviction level?", "How should I position?", "Run the strategy synthesizer", "Druckenmiller analysis", "総合的な市場判断", "確信度スコア", "ポートフォリオ配分", "ドラッケンミラー分析".

Druckenmiller Strategy Synthesizer

Purpose

Synthesize outputs from 8 upstream analysis skills (5 required + 3 optional) into a single composite conviction score (0-100), classify the market into one of 4 Druckenmiller patterns, and generate actionable allocation recommendations. This is a **meta-skill** that consumes structured JSON outputs from other skills — it requires no API keys of its own.

When to Use This Skill

**English:**

• User asks "What's my overall conviction?" or "How should I be positioned?"
• User wants a unified view synthesizing breadth, uptrend, top risk, macro, and FTD signals
• User asks about Druckenmiller-style portfolio positioning
• User requests strategy synthesis after running individual analysis skills
• User asks "Should I increase or decrease exposure?"
• User wants pattern classification (policy pivot, distortion, contrarian, wait)

**Japanese:**

• 「総合的な市場判断は？」「今のポジショニングは？」
• ブレッドス、アップトレンド、天井リスク、マクロの統合判断
• 「エクスポージャーを増やすべき？減らすべき？」
• 「ドラッケンミラー分析を実行して」
• 個別スキル実行後の戦略統合レポート

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Input Requirements

Required Skills (5)

| # | Skill | JSON Prefix | Role | |---|-------|-------------|------| | 1 | Market Breadth Analyzer | `market_breadth_` | Market participation breadth | | 2 | Uptrend Analyzer | `uptrend_analysis_` | Sector uptrend ratios | | 3 | Market Top Detector | `market_top_` | Distribution / top risk (defense) | | 4 | Macro Regime Detector | `macro_regime_` | Macro regime transition (1-2Y structure) | | 5 | FTD Detector | `ftd_detector_` | Bottom confirmation / re-entry (offense) |

Optional Skills (3)

| # | Skill | JSON Prefix | Role | |---|-------|-------------|------| | 6 | VCP Screener | `vcp_screener_` | Momentum stock setups (VCP) | | 7 | Theme Detector | `theme_detector_` | Theme / sector momentum | | 8 | CANSLIM Screener | `canslim_screener_` | Growth stock setups + M(Market Direction) |

Run the required skills first. The synthesizer reads their JSON output from `reports/`.

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Execution Workflow

Phase 1: Verify Prerequisites

Check that the 5 required skill JSON reports exist in `reports/` and are recent (< 72 hours). If any are missing, run the corresponding skill first.

Phase 2: Execute Strategy Synthesizer

python3 skills/stanley-druckenmiller-investment/scripts/strategy_synthesizer.py \
  --reports-dir reports/ \
  --output-dir reports/ \
  --max-age 72

The script will: 1. Load and validate all upstream skill JSON reports 2. Extract normalized signals from each skill 3. Calculate 7 component scores (weighted 0-100) 4. Compute composite conviction score 5. Classify into one of 4 Druckenmiller patterns 6. Generate target allocation and position sizing 7. Output JSON and Markdown reports

Phase 3: Present Results

Present the generated Markdown report, highlighting:

• Conviction score and zone
• Detected pattern and match strength
• Strongest and weakest components
• Target allocation (equity/bonds/alternatives/cash)
• Position sizing parameters
• Relevant Druckenmiller principle

Phase 4: Provide Druckenmiller Context

Load appropriate reference documents to provide philosophical context:

• **High conviction:** Emphasize concentration and "fat pitch" principles
• **Low conviction:** Emphasize capital preservation and patience
• **Pattern-specific:** Apply relevant case study from `references/case-studies.md`

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7-Component Scoring System

| # | Component | Weight | Source Skill(s) | Key Signal | |---|-----------|--------|----------------|------------| | 1 | Market Structure | **18%** | Breadth + Uptrend | Market participation health | | 2 | Distribution Risk | **18%** | Market Top (inverted) | Institutional selling risk | | 3 | Bottom Confirmation | **12%** | FTD Detector | Re-entry signal after correction | | 4 | Macro Alignment | **18%** | Macro Regime | Regime favorability | | 5 | Theme Quality | **12%** | Theme Detector | Sector momentum health | | 6 | Setup Availability | **10%** | VCP + CANSLIM | Quality stock setups | | 7 | Signal Convergence | **12%** | All 5 required | Cross-skill agreement |

4 Pattern Classifications

| Pattern | Trigger Conditions | Druckenmiller Principle | |---------|-------------------|----------------------| | Policy Pivot Anticipation | Transitional regime + high transition probability | "Focus on central banks and liquidity" | | Unsustainable Distortion | Top risk >= 60 + contraction/inflationary regime | "How much you lose when wrong matters most" | | Extreme Sentiment Contrarian | FTD confirmed + high top risk + bearish breadth | "Most money made in bear markets" | | Wait & Observe | Low conviction + mixed signals (default) | "When you don't see it, don't swing" |

Conviction Zone Mapping

| Score | Zone | Exposure | Guidance | |-------|------|----------|----------| | 80-100 | Maximum Conviction | 90-100% | Fat pitch - swing hard | | 60-79 | High Conviction | 70-90% | Standard risk management | | 40-59 | Moderate Conviction | 50-70% | Reduce position sizes | | 20-39 | Low Conviction | 20-50% | Preserve capital, minimal risk | | 0-19 | Capital Preservation | 0-20% | Maximum defense |

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Output Files

• `druckenmiller_strategy_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.json` — Structured analysis data
• `druckenmiller_strategy_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.md` — Human-readable report

API Re