/scenario-analyzer

name: scenario-analyzer
description: |
  Skill that analyzes 18-month scenarios from a news headline.
  Runs the primary analysis with the scenario-analyst agent and obtains a
  second opinion with the strategy-reviewer agent.
  Generates a comprehensive English report covering 1st/2nd/3rd-order
  impacts, recommended stocks, and a critical review.
  Example: /scenario-analyzer "Fed raises rates by 50bp"
  Triggers: news analysis, scenario analysis, 18-month outlook,
  medium-to-long-term investment strategy

Scenario Analyzer

Overview

This skill analyzes medium-to-long-term (18-month) investment scenarios starting from a news headline. It invokes two specialized agents in sequence (`scenario-analyst` and `strategy-reviewer`) and integrates multi-angle analysis with a critical review into a comprehensive report.

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when:

• You want to analyze the medium-to-long-term investment impact of a news headline
• You want to construct multiple 18-month scenarios
• You want sector/stock impacts organized into 1st/2nd/3rd-order effects
• You need a comprehensive analysis that includes a second opinion

**Examples:**

/scenario-analyzer "Fed raises interest rates by 50bp, signals more hikes ahead"
/scenario-analyzer "China announces new tariffs on US semiconductors"
/scenario-analyzer "OPEC+ agrees to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day"

Prerequisites

• **API Keys**: None (uses only WebSearch/WebFetch)
• **MCP Servers**: None
• **Dependencies**: The scenario-analyst and strategy-reviewer agents must be available via the Task tool

Architecture

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                    Skill (orchestrator)                              │
│                                                                      │
│  Phase 1: Preparation                                                │
│  ├─ Headline parsing                                                 │
│  ├─ Event type classification                                        │
│  └─ Reference loading                                                │
│                                                                      │
│  Phase 2: Agent invocation                                           │
│  ├─ scenario-analyst (primary analysis)                              │
│  └─ strategy-reviewer (second opinion)                               │
│                                                                      │
│  Phase 3: Integration & report generation                            │
│  └─ reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md                   │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Workflow

Phase 1: Preparation

Step 1.1: Headline Parsing

Parse the headline provided by the user.

1. **Headline check**

• Confirm a headline was passed as an argument
• If not provided, ask the user for input

2. **Keyword extraction**

• Key entities (company names, country names, institution names)
• Numeric data (rates, prices, quantities)
• Actions (raise, cut, announce, agree, etc.)

Step 1.2: Event Type Classification

Classify the headline into one of the following categories:

| Category | Examples | |----------|----------| | Monetary Policy | FOMC, ECB, BOJ, rate hike, rate cut, QE/QT | | Geopolitics | War, sanctions, tariffs, trade friction | | Regulation & Policy | Environmental regulation, financial regulation, antitrust | | Technology | AI, EV, renewables, semiconductors | | Commodities | Crude oil, gold, copper, agricultural products | | Corporate & M&A | Acquisitions, bankruptcies, earnings, industry restructuring |

Step 1.3: Reference Loading

Based on the event type, load the relevant references:

Read references/headline_event_patterns.md
Read references/sector_sensitivity_matrix.md
Read references/scenario_playbooks.md

**Reference contents:**

• `headline_event_patterns.md`: Historical event patterns and market reactions
• `sector_sensitivity_matrix.md`: Event × sector impact-magnitude matrix
• `scenario_playbooks.md`: Scenario-construction templates and best practices

---

Phase 2: Agent Invocation

Step 2.1: Invoke scenario-analyst

Use the Agent tool to invoke the primary analysis agent.

Agent tool:
- subagent_type: "scenario-analyst"
- prompt: |
    Perform an 18-month scenario analysis for the following headline.

    ## Target Headline
    [the input headline]

    ## Event Type
    [classification result]

    ## Reference Information
    [summary of the loaded references]

    ## Analysis Requirements
    1. Use WebSearch to collect related news from the past 2 weeks
    2. Construct 3 scenarios — Base/Bull/Bear (probabilities sum to 100%)
    3. Analyze 1st/2nd/3rd-order impacts by sector
    4. Select 3-5 positive- and 3-5 negative-impact stocks (US market only)
    5. Output everything in English

**Expected output:**

• List of related news articles
• Details of the 3 scenarios (Base/Bull/Bear)
• Sector impact analysis (1st/2nd/3rd-order)
• Stock recommendation list

Step 2.2: Invoke strategy-reviewer

Using the scenario-analyst's results, invoke the review agent.

Agent tool:
- subagent_type: "strategy-reviewer"
- prompt: |
    Review the following scenario analysis.

    ## Target Headline
    [the input headline]

    ## Analysis Result
    [the full scenario-analyst output]

    ## Review Requirements
    Review from the following angles:
    1. Overlooked sectors/stocks
    2. Validity of the scenario probability allocation
    3. Logical consistency of the impact analysis
    4. Detection of optimism/pessimism bias
    5. Proposal of alternative scenarios
    6. Realism of the timeline

    Output constructive and specific feedback in English.

**Expected output:**

• Pointing out blind spots
• Opinion on the scenario probabilities
• Pointing out bias
• Proposal of alternative scenari