/essays-in-persuasion-keynes

name: essays-in-persuasion-keynes
description: 'Apply Keynes policy reasoning. Trigger on: "will austerity work?", "inflation or deflation?", "analyze this economic crisis".'
license: 'Skill distillation for personal/educational use. Do not reproduce source passages verbatim.'

Essays in Persuasion: Keynes Policy Reasoning Orchestrator

Skill Purpose

Apply John Maynard Keynes's policy reasoning from *Essays in Persuasion* to contemporary macroeconomic questions. This is a modular skill because users may ask separate, independently triggered questions about debt capacity, inflation versus deflation, fixed exchange-rate traps, demand shortfalls, or economic persuasion.

Routing Rules

| User intent | Route to | |---|---| | Sovereign debt, reparations, sanctions, fiscal capacity, creditor demands | `subskills/transfer-problem.md` | | Inflation, deflation, unemployment tradeoffs, real debt burdens | `subskills/inflation-deflation.md` | | Gold standard, currency pegs, euro constraints, devaluation | `subskills/fixed-rate-trap.md` | | Recession, austerity, stimulus, liquidity trap, animal spirits | `subskills/aggregate-demand.md` | | Critique or write an economic argument meant to persuade | `subskills/economic-persuasion.md` |

Execution Rules

1. Identify the user's concrete policy question and economic context. 2. Route to the smallest relevant subskill; combine subskills only when the question spans mechanisms. 3. Use current data when the user asks about a present economy or market. 4. Distinguish short-run consequences from long-run equilibrium claims. 5. State what evidence would change the verdict.

Multi-Module Output Format

• Diagnosis line: identify the policy problem.
• Routed module(s): name the Keynesian lens used.
• Evidence: 2-3 data points or historical parallels.
• Verdict: recommendation with caveats.
• Revision condition: what would make the answer change.

Subskill Status

All subskills are required and present in `subskills/`.

CITATION RULES

Use quotes only when the user asks for source grounding or when a claim needs attribution. Reference quote anchors by topic file and anchor. Keep quoted excerpts short.

• `demand-confidence-quotes.md`: `#slump-trade-employment`, `#idle-workers-worldwide`, `#public-works-remedy`, `#doing-spending-enterprises`, `#restore-confidence-enterprise`, `#revive-enterprise-activity`, `#deflation-transfers-wealth`, `#active-to-inactive`
• `policy-diagnosis-quotes.md`: `#germany-pays-in-goods`, `#transfer-destroys-balance`, `#inflation-and-deflation-injure`, `#inflation-unjust-deflation-inexpedient`, `#deflation-provokes-unemployment`, `#reject-prewar-gold-standard`, `#gold-standard-links-city-wall-street`, `#economists-as-dentists`

Critical Reminders

• Judge policy by real output, employment, price, and distributional consequences.
• Do not turn Keynes into a universal pro-stimulus slogan; context determines the prescription.
• Do not reproduce long source passages.