/61-budget-planning-global

name: 61-budget-planning-global
description: "Use when the user needs to plan or manage a marketing budget in USD: allocation by channel, funnel stage, and month, test-versus-scale split, scale-up and stop-loss thresholds, reserve, a plan-versus-actual tracker, and a review cadence. Trigger on 'budget planning', 'marketing budget', 'budget allocation', 'how much should we spend on ads', 'campaign budget', 'stop loss threshold', or 'quarterly budget'."
metadata:
  version: 1.0.0
  category: strategy
license: MIT
triggers:
  - "budget planning"
  - "marketing budget"
  - "budget allocation"
  - "how much should we spend on ads"
  - "campaign budget"
  - "stop loss threshold"
  - "quarterly budget"
  - "media budget split"
output: "File .md — budget plan: overview, allocation by bucket / channel / campaign / month, test vs scale split, adjustment rules and stop-loss thresholds, tracker, review cadence"
related:
  - product-marketing-context-global
  - 10-reverse-kpi-global
  - 00-marketing-plan-global
  - 54-media-plan-global
  - 55-scaling-ads-global
  - 21-ads-audit-global
  - 07-marketing-report-global

Budget Planning (Global)

> A budget is not a fixed number — it is a decision tool: where you place bets and when you pull back. The leader must know total spend, ROI per channel, what to increase, and what to cut. Run `10-reverse-kpi-global` first to derive the minimum budget from the revenue target before allocating anything.

Information gathering

Read `.agents/product-marketing-context-global.md`, the marketing plan, and the previous period's report if available. If missing, ask up to 4 questions:

1. **Total budget and planning period?** How much, for a month, a quarter, or a year (USD)? 2. **Revenue target for the period?** Needed to compute marketing as a percent of revenue and the minimum viable budget. 3. **Active channels and last period's ROI?** Meta / TikTok / Google / email + SMS / affiliates / agency — which has the best ROAS or CPA? 4. **Any large campaign needing a reserve?** Launch, Black Friday / Cyber Monday, or another seasonal peak.

Principles

1. **Budget follows performance.** Do not stay rigid to the opening plan. Channels that work get more; channels that do not get cut. 2. **Always hold 10-15% in reserve.** Never allocate everything on day one. The reserve covers unexpected opportunities and incidents. 3. **Every dollar has a measurable KPI.** "Branding you cannot measure" is not an acceptable line item. 4. **Do not spread evenly.** Concentrate on the best-performing channel. New channels get a minimum test allocation (10-15%) first. 5. **Plan backwards from revenue, not from channels.** The budget is the output of a revenue equation, not an arbitrary number. 6. **Do not divide the annual budget evenly across quarters.** Median Meta CPM in Q4 runs roughly 26% above Q1 (`references/benchmarks-global.md`), so identical monthly spend buys materially less reach in Q4. Either front-load acquisition into cheap Q1 months or explicitly reserve a larger Q4 allocation for the same volume.

Workflow

1. Choose the budget-setting method

| Method | How it works | Strength | Weakness | |--------|--------------|----------|----------| | Percent of revenue | Budget = X% of expected revenue | Simple | Ignores growth stage | | Backwards from targets (recommended) | Set revenue > derive CAC/CPL > derive spend | Logical, evidence-based | Needs historical CAC/CPL | | Competitive benchmark | Match category spend norms | Avoids under-investment | Ignores your own conditions |

Seven-step backwards calculation (full detail in `10-reverse-kpi-global`):

1. Target revenue
2. / AOV                        = orders needed
3. / close rate (30-50%)        = hot leads needed
4. / nurture CVR (50-60%)       = warm leads needed
5. / lead capture CVR (20-40%)  = total reach needed
6. total leads x CPL            = minimum ad budget
7. + content + tools + agency   = total marketing budget

Build 3 scenarios: Conservative (CVR below category median, CPL above), Base case (at median), Optimistic (post-optimization). Plan against Base; prepare cashflow against Conservative.

2. Allocate by bucket

| Bucket | Suggested share | Purpose | |--------|-----------------|---------| | Paid ads (performance) | 50-65% | Meta, TikTok, Google, retargeting | | Content production | 10-15% | Video, design, copywriting | | Creators / UGC / affiliates | 5-10% | Social proof, third-party reach | | Agency / freelancers | Per scope | If used | | Tools / software | 2-5% | Ad tools, design, email/CRM, analytics | | Campaign reserve | 10-15% | Opportunities and incidents — NOT pre-allocated |

3. Allocate by channel

Starting split (adjust to your category and your own data):

| Channel | Share of ad budget | Objective | Expected CPA / ROAS | |---------|--------------------|-----------|---------------------| | Meta Ads (Facebook + Instagram) | 45-60% | Lead / purchase | | | TikTok Ads | 15-20% | Awareness / lead | | | Google Search + Shopping | 15-25% | High-intent capture | | | Email + SMS (Klaviyo, Mailchimp, Attentive) | 5-10% | Retention, nurture, retargeting | | | New channel (test) | 10-15% | Validate | |

For B2B, shift toward LinkedIn and Search — LinkedIn CPM runs $30-100+, so plan a higher CPL and a longer payback window. Allocation logic: channels with strong ROAS or CPA get a larger share; new channels get the minimum test allocation first; never divide evenly.

4. Split by funnel and by test vs scale

Standard performance split inside each channel:

| Purpose | Share | Note | |---------|-------|------| | Testing (new creative + audiences) | 30% | Always keep testing — creative fatigue arrives fast | | Scale (confirmed winners) | 50% | Only scale campaigns with winning data | | Retargeting | 15% | Warm audience — cheapest CPA in the funnel | | Lookalike / similar audiences | 5% | Expansion from converter seeds |

By funnel: TOFU (reach/awareness), MOFU (lead/nurture),