/10-reverse-kpi-global

name: 10-reverse-kpi-global
description: "Use when the user needs to work backward from a revenue goal to the numbers that produce it — required leads, max CPA and CPL, funnel conversion thresholds, and the budget that has to be spent, with three scenarios and currency handling for US, EU, SEA, and LATAM. Trigger on 'reverse KPI', 'how much budget do I need', 'what CPA can I afford', 'work backward from revenue', 'how many leads to hit target', 'break-even ROAS'. Also use when the user names a revenue target and asks whether it is realistic. Not for — splitting an existing budget across channels and months, see `61-budget-planning-global`; a full paid media plan, see `54-media-plan-global`; the period plan, see `00-marketing-plan-global`."
metadata:
  version: 1.0.1
  category: strategy
license: MIT
triggers:
  - "reverse KPI"
  - "budget calculation"
  - "KPI breakdown"
  - "marketing budget plan"
  - "campaign budget"
related:
  - product-marketing-context-global
  - 00-marketing-plan-global
  - 03-performance-eval-global
  - 07-marketing-report-global

Reverse KPI Calculation (Global)

Calculate marketing budget by working backward from revenue goal — or forward from available spend to expected revenue. Universal math; currency and benchmark numbers vary per region (US/EU/SEA/LATAM).

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For newbies — Read this first

If you've never run a reverse KPI calc:

1. **Reverse KPI = working backward from a goal.** Instead of "I'll spend $5K and see what happens," you say "I want $50K in revenue, so I need X impressions, Y leads, Z customers — therefore the budget is $W." 2. **It works in two directions:**

• Backward: Revenue target → required spend (when you have a goal)
• Forward: Available spend → expected revenue (when you have a budget)

3. **You always run 3 scenarios.** Pessimistic (worst case), Realistic (base case), Optimistic (best case). One number is dangerous — three numbers force you to stress-test. 4. **Conversion rates are the leverage.** Small changes in conversion (e.g., 50% → 55%) cascade up the funnel and change your budget significantly. 5. **Currency matters.** A 5% margin in USD is different in EUR, BRL, or VND. Always pick the right region variant for your benchmarks. 6. **Don't trust round numbers.** "100 leads" is suspicious — real funnels produce odd numbers like 87 or 213. 7. **Time horizon affects budget.** A $50K monthly target needs different planning than a $50K annual target. Always specify the period.

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Step 0 — Read context + select region variant

Before calculation:

1. **Read `.agents/product-marketing-context-global.md`** — get product, AOV, region, currency, target market. 2. **Pick region variant for benchmark conversion rates and CPM/CPL:**

• `variants/01-us.md` — USD, US benchmarks
• `variants/02-eu.md` — EUR/GBP, EU benchmarks
• `variants/03-sea.md` — USD/local, SEA benchmarks
• `variants/04-latam.md` — USD/BRL/MXN, LATAM benchmarks

3. **Confirm direction:** Reverse (revenue → spend) or Forward (spend → revenue)?

Information gathering

Ask user up to 4 questions:

1. **What is the goal?** Revenue target $X/month? Or available budget $Y to allocate? 2. **Product/service and AOV?** Average order value or deal size in your currency. 3. **Industry and current channel mix?** Industry niche? Channels currently running? Any existing CPL/CPM data? 4. **Campaign duration?** 1 month? Quarter? 6 months? Phased?

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Two calculation directions

Direction 1 — Reverse: Revenue → Budget

Use when: "I want to hit $200K/month — how much ad spend do I need?"

Revenue target
  / AOV (average order value)
  = ORDERS NEEDED
  / Booking → Customer rate
  = BOOKINGS NEEDED
  / Lead → Booking rate
  = LEADS NEEDED
  / Click → Lead rate
  = CLICKS NEEDED
  / CTR
  = IMPRESSIONS NEEDED
  × CPM / 1000
  = TOTAL AD BUDGET

For e-commerce (no booking step):

Revenue target
  / AOV
  = ORDERS NEEDED
  / Conversion rate
  = SESSIONS NEEDED (clicks)
  / CTR
  = IMPRESSIONS NEEDED
  × CPM / 1000
  = TOTAL AD BUDGET

For B2B (longer funnel):

Revenue target
  / ACV (annual contract value)
  = CUSTOMERS NEEDED
  / Win rate
  = OPPORTUNITIES NEEDED
  / SQL → Opportunity rate
  = SQL NEEDED
  / MQL → SQL rate
  = MQL NEEDED
  / Lead → MQL rate
  = LEADS NEEDED
  → continue with CPL × LEADS NEEDED = SPEND

Direction 2 — Forward: Budget → Revenue

Use when: "I have $50K — how much revenue can I expect?"

Budget
  / CPM × 1000
  = IMPRESSIONS
  × CTR
  = CLICKS
  × Click → Lead rate
  = LEADS
  × Lead → Booking rate
  = BOOKINGS
  × Booking → Customer rate
  = ORDERS
  × AOV
  = REVENUE

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3-Scenario sensitivity analysis (universal)

Scenario structure

Always run three scenarios:

| Variable | Pessimistic | Realistic (Base) | Optimistic | |----------|-------------|------------------|------------| | CPM | Industry avg + 30% | Industry avg | Industry avg − 20% | | Click → Lead | Industry avg − 15% | Industry avg | Industry avg + 15% | | Lead → Booking | Industry avg − 10% | Industry avg | Industry avg + 10% | | Booking → Customer | Industry avg − 10% | Industry avg | Industry avg + 10% |

Reading the results

• **Pessimistic** = budget needed for safety / FX swings / first-month learning curve
• **Realistic (Base)** = the actual planning number
• **Optimistic** = aspiration target, used for stretch KPI or commission triggers

> Use Base for budget. Use Pessimistic as buffer. Use Optimistic as stretch goal.

Sensitivity (which lever moves the budget most?)

| Variable | Base value | Change +10% | Budget change | Sensitivity | |----------|-----------|-------------|---------------|-------------| | CPM | [#] | +10% | +10% | **Direct 1:1** | | CTR | [#]% | +10% | -9% | **High** | | Click→Lead | [#]% | +10% | -9% | **High** | | Lead→Booking | [#]% | +10% | -9% | **High** | | Booking→Customer | [#]% | +10% | -9% | **High** | | AOV | [#] | +10% | -9% (fewer orders needed) | **Indirect** |

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