/ln-11-opportunity-evaluator

name: ln-11-opportunity-evaluator
description: "Evaluates new product opportunities through demand, channels and economics before committing to build."

Opportunity Evaluator

**Goal:** Evaluate product opportunities before implementation commitment. Start from observable demand and a reachable acquisition path, eliminate weak candidates early, and recommend one low-cost validation step without manufacturing market precision.

**Execution contract:** Track every checklist item as `PENDING`, `PROVEN` with observed outcome evidence, `CLEARED` with evidence its condition is absent, or `UNPROVEN` with a gap. Reading, delegation, tool failure, zero exit status, and self-reported success are not proof. Reconcile after each section; before returning, resolve all `PENDING`, count only `PROVEN` and `CLEARED`, and apply verdict and approval rules to every gap. Preserve intent, scope, mode, and existing authorization. Complete authorized work before required external approval; ask only consequential unresolved choices. If nobody can answer, report the exact question and apply the skill's gap verdict without waiting or guessing. Cite any blocking instruction and unresolved boundary; never invent approval gates. Scale depth to material risk; preserve mandatory checks, dependencies, and safety order while choosing verification methods. Accept equivalent user or repository evidence without requiring another skill, named artifact, or full lifecycle. Preserve source requirement and decision IDs. Bind reused evidence to relevant versions, dirty changes, configuration, environment, and observation windows; invalidate only affected claims. Choose the primary workflow by outcome and explicit selection. Consume neighboring contracts and valid evidence without duplicating ownership or restarting audits. Split distinct deliverables by scope, not mandatory skill invocation. Broad independent assessments use audit workflows; focused domain reviews remain read-only. On continuation, reconcile task, authorization, state, and gaps. Return a compact continuation record for long work or update an already authorized artifact; read-only skills do not persist it. Distinguish artifact readiness, verified behavior, and external-action authority. Trace applicable requirements to their authoritative owner, planned or implemented change, acceptance evidence and status in the existing artifact or response; no new registry is required. Explicit constraints remain binding until an authorized deviation; risk determines priority, not permission to ignore them. Investigate the causal flow beyond initially named files. Within implementation authority, include structural repair needed for the outcome; minimize total complexity and risk, not changed lines. This does not authorize unrelated cleanup or mutation during review. Before retrieval, define the evidence question; read selectively without skipping applicable instructions. Use tools for mechanical processing; summarize bounded results, errors, coverage, and source paths, keeping full output outside context. Before technical decisions, establish applicability and actual versions; verify version-dependent assumptions against official documentation or specifications. Search and read primary pages for current external recommendations; snippets are not evidence. Version-matched bundled documentation or valid prior evidence suffices. Record decision, version, source, and limitations. Mark unavailable evidence UNVERIFIED; block only essential dependent work. Prefer native mechanisms, justify added tools or abstractions with evidence, and reuse the existing rule owner.

Tool Routing

| Need | Preferred tool | Use it when | Fallback | |---|---|---|---| | Product and constraints | User context plus existing product, analytics, customer, and strategy documents | Establishing audience, assets, channels, economics, and non-goals | State assumptions and request only consequential missing intent | | Current demand and acquisition | Web research, trend or marketplace data, communities, reviews, ads, directories, and primary customer evidence | Every external market claim that affects elimination or recommendation | Mark the signal unavailable; never infer a number from search-result count | | Competition and pricing | Competitor product pages, pricing, release history, distribution channels, reviews, and public filings where relevant | Establishing substitutes, willingness-to-pay signals, and credible differentiation | Use qualitative evidence with explicit confidence | | Feasibility and validation cost | Existing capabilities, public APIs, regulations, platform rules, and current official documentation | Comparing the cheapest credible experiment and major blockers | Label estimates and name the evidence still required |

Keep the evaluation read-only. Do not create project files, roadmaps, Epics, Stories, implementation plans, campaigns, listings, advertisements, or customer outreach.

Evidence Classes

| Class | Meaning | |---|---| | `MEASURED` | Direct analytics, transactions, experiments, or instrumented observations with known method and date | | `REPORTED` | A primary source reports a value or behavior, but the underlying measurement is not independently available | | `ESTIMATED` | A stated model based on explicit inputs and assumptions | | `INFERRED` | A qualitative conclusion from observable proxies | | `UNKNOWN` | Evidence is unavailable, stale, incomparable, or too weak to support a decision |

Do not turn `REPORTED`, `ESTIMATED`, or `INFERRED` evidence into a measured market size, search volume, conversion rate, revenue, or willingness-to-pay claim. Date every external source and distinguish the event date from the publication date when they differ. Treat the creator thesis, intended experience, taste, and conviction as owner preferences and strategic-fit inputs, never as demand, acquisition, or willingness-to-pay evidence.

Checklist

1. Frame the Decision