/nft-analysis

name: nft-analysis
description: Analyze NFT projects for investment decisions — evaluate fundamentals, identify red flags, assess risk, and provide buy/hold/avoid recommendations
triggers:
  - analyze NFT project
  - should I buy this NFT
  - NFT investment analysis
  - is this NFT a good investment
  - NFT project evaluation
  - NFT due diligence
origin: unknown
source_license: see upstream
language: en

NFT Project Analysis

Comprehensive framework for evaluating NFT projects and providing investment recommendations. Focuses on fundamentals, red flags, and risk assessment rather than speculation.

When to Use

• User asks to analyze an NFT collection
• User asks "should I buy this NFT?"
• User wants to evaluate NFT project health
• User asks about NFT price trends or investment potential

Analysis Framework

1. Data Collection

**Primary sources:**

• OpenSea (floor price, volume, holders, sales)
• Blur, LooksRare, Rarible (alternative marketplaces)
• Twitter (community size, engagement, updates)
• Discord/Telegram (community activity, team presence)
• Etherscan/blockchain explorer (contract, holder distribution)
• Project website (roadmap, team, utility)

**Key metrics:**

• Floor price (current + historical)
• Trading volume (24h, 7d, 30d)
• Total volume (all-time)
• Unique holders
• Total supply
• Recent sales activity
• **Listed count** (how many NFTs are listed for sale)
• **Marketplace presence** (which platforms list the collection)
• Social media followers
• Community engagement

**CRITICAL: Check marketplace liquidity FIRST**

• Verify NFT is actually listed on marketplaces (OpenSea, Blur, etc.)
• Check on-chain holders count (0 holders = NFTs stuck in contract)
• Verify contract is verified on block explorer
• If zero marketplace presence + zero holders = DEAD MARKET (instant avoid)

2. Chart Pattern Recognition

**Healthy patterns:**

• Gradual uptrend with consolidation zones
• Higher lows, higher highs
• Multiple horizontal support levels
• Steady volume growth
• Low volatility

**Death patterns:**

• Pump & dump (sharp spike → crash)
• Death spiral (continuous decline, no support)
• Extreme volatility (0 → peak → 0 → peak → 0)
• Declining volume
• No consolidation zones

**Example death chart:**

Launch:  0.1 ETH  (accumulation)
Month 2: 0.5 ETH  (PUMP — 5x in days)
Month 3: 0.0 ETH  (CRASH — rug pull)
Month 4: 0.4 ETH  (dead cat bounce)
Month 5: 0.003 ETH (death spiral)

Pattern: TEXTBOOK RUG PULL

3. Red Flags Checklist

**Critical red flags (avoid immediately):**

• ❌ **Zero marketplace listings** (not on OpenSea/Blur/any platform)
• ❌ **Zero holders on-chain** (NFTs stuck in minting contract)
• ❌ **Unverified contract** (can't verify legitimacy)
• ❌ Floor price < $10 (death territory)
• ❌ No Discord/Telegram (dead community)
• ❌ Zero market cap
• ❌ No development updates in 3+ months
• ❌ Wash trading (high sale count, tiny values)
• ❌ No utility (pure collectible)
• ❌ Team anonymous + no roadmap
• ❌ Pump & dump chart pattern
• ❌ 90%+ decline from peak
• ❌ No recovery catalysts

**Warning signs (proceed with caution):**

• ⚠️ Small community (< 5k Discord members)
• ⚠️ Low liquidity (< 10 ETH daily volume)
• ⚠️ High holder concentration (top 10 hold > 50%)
• ⚠️ Declining social engagement
• ⚠️ Delayed roadmap milestones
• ⚠️ No partnerships or integrations

**Positive signals:**

• ✅ Active Discord (10k+ members, daily activity)
• ✅ Regular development updates
• ✅ Real utility (gaming, metaverse, membership)
• ✅ Partnerships with established projects
• ✅ Doxxed team with track record
• ✅ Healthy chart (uptrend, support levels)
• ✅ Growing community
• ✅ Blue-chip status (BAYC, Azuki, Pudgy Penguins)

4. Risk Assessment

**Calculate probability-weighted expected value:**

Scenarios:
1. Best case (5-10%): 3-10x gain
2. Most likely (70-80%): -50% to +50%
3. Worst case (10-20%): -90% to -100%

Expected value = (P1 × Gain1) + (P2 × Gain2) + (P3 × Loss3)

If EV < 0: AVOID
If EV > 0 but high risk: CAUTION
If EV > 0 and low risk: CONSIDER

**Risk levels:**

• **EXTREME (10/10):** Death spiral, abandoned project, rug pull signs
• **HIGH (7-9/10):** Declining metrics, weak community, no utility
• **MEDIUM (4-6/10):** Mixed signals, execution risk, market dependent
• **LOW (1-3/10):** Blue-chip, strong fundamentals, active development

5. Comparison with Similar Projects

**Compare against:**

• Blue-chip NFTs (BAYC, Azuki, Doodles)
• Same category (PFP, gaming, metaverse)
• Similar launch date
• Similar supply size

**Metrics to compare:**

• Floor price trajectory
• Volume trends
• Community size
• Development activity
• Utility/roadmap execution

Recommendation Framework

BUY (Serok)

**Criteria:**

• ✅ All fundamentals strong
• ✅ Active community (10k+ Discord)
• ✅ Regular development updates
• ✅ Real utility or roadmap
• ✅ Healthy chart (uptrend, support)
• ✅ Expected value > 0
• ✅ Risk level: LOW to MEDIUM

**Example:** Blue-chip NFT during temporary dip

HOLD

**Criteria:**

• 🟡 Mixed signals
• 🟡 Some red flags but not critical
• 🟡 Execution risk
• 🟡 Expected value ≈ 0
• 🟡 Risk level: MEDIUM

**Example:** Established project with delayed roadmap

AVOID (Jangan Serok)

**Criteria:**

• ❌ Multiple critical red flags
• ❌ Death spiral chart pattern
• ❌ Dead community
• ❌ No development
• ❌ Expected value < 0
• ❌ Risk level: HIGH to EXTREME

**Example:** Project with $8 floor, no Discord, 95% down from peak

Response Format

**Structure:** 1. Executive summary (BUY/HOLD/AVOID + one-line reason) 2. Current metrics (floor, volume, holders) 3. Chart analysis (pattern recognition) 4. Red flags and positive signals 5. Risk assessment (probability-weighted) 6. Comparison with similar projects 7. Final recommendation with reasoning

**Tone:**

• Direct and honest (don't sugarcoat bad projects)
• Data-driven (cite specific metrics)
• Risk-aware (acknowledge uncertainty)
• Actionable (clear buy/hold/avoid)
• **Lead with risk assessm