/china-unit-economics

name: china-unit-economics
description: Unit economics analysis for China-focused portfolio companies. Adapted from the original unit-economics skill for Chinese business models, pricing, and market dynamics. Triggers on "A股单位经济模型", "单元经济模型", "unit economics China", "unit economics [company]", "LTV/CAC China", or "Cohort analysis [company]".

china-unit-economics

Purpose

Analyze **A股及中国市场单元经济模型** — per-unit economics, customer economics, and cohort analysis for portfolio companies.

Key Metrics

Core Framework (Same as Global)

| Metric | Formula | Target | |--------|---------|--------| | LTV (Customer Lifetime Value) | ARPU × Lifetime × Gross Margin | >3x CAC | | CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost) | Sales & Marketing / New Customers | <12-month payback | | LTV/CAC | LTV / CAC | >3.0x | | CAC Payback (months) | CAC / (ARPU × Gross Margin %) | <12 months | | NRR (Net Revenue Retention) | (Start + Expansion - Churn) / Start | >100% | | GRR (Gross Revenue Retention) | (Start - Churn) / Start | >85% | | ARR | Annual Recurring Revenue | Growing | | Churn Rate | Lost customers / Total | <5% monthly |

China-Specific Metrics

| Metric | Description | China Context | |--------|-------------|---------------| | 获客成本 | CAC in Chinese context | 线上投放 + 线下渠道 | | 用户生命周期价值 | LTV for Chinese consumers | Higher for tier-1 | | 复购率 | Repeat purchase rate | Critical for DTC brands | | 客单价 | Average order value | 价格敏感 market | | 渠道成本 | Channel economics | 经销商 vs DTC | | 补贴依赖 | Subsidy / discount dependence | Common in China |

Data Sources

Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)

# For public companies, extract proxies
get_financials(ticker, "income")    → Revenue, opex
get_financials(ticker, "balance")   → Customer-related assets
get_financials(ticker, "cashflow")  → Cash flow

Secondary Sources

• 巨潮 — company filings with segment data
• 管理层指引 — management guidance
• 券商研报 — unit economics estimates
• 行业数据 — industry benchmarks

Workflow

Step 1: Define Unit Economics Model

**Business model identification:**

| Business Model | Unit Definition | Revenue Model | |----------------|-----------------|---------------| | 消费品 | 每单 / 每用户 | Transaction | | SaaS | 每客户 (年) | Subscription | | 电商 | 每订单 / 每用户 | Transaction | | 制造业 | 每件 / 每吨 | Unit sales | | 平台 | 每GMV / 每交易 | Take rate | | 广告 | 每曝光 / 每点击 | CPM / CPC |

Step 2: Build Unit Economics Model

**Standard model:**

# Unit economics calculation
Unit_Price = XX元
Unit_Cost = XX元 (COGS)
Unit_Contribution = Unit_Price - Unit_Cost

# Customer economics (for subscription/DTC)
CAC = XX元 (acquisition cost per customer)
ARPU = XX元/年 (average revenue per user)
Gross_Margin = XX%
Customer_Lifetime = X年 (or 1/churn rate)
LTV = ARPU × Lifetime × Gross_Margin
LTV_CAC = LTV / CAC
Payback_Months = CAC / (ARPU × Gross_Margin / 12)

Step 3: Cohort Analysis

**Cohort table (retention):**

| Cohort | Month 0 | Month 1 | Month 2 | Month 3 | Month 6 | Month 12 | |--------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|----------| | Jan | 100% | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% | | Feb | 100% | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% | | Mar | 100% | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% | XX% |

**Cohort revenue:**

| Cohort | Month 0 | Month 1 | Month 2 | Month 3 | Month 6 | Month 12 | |--------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|----------| | Jan | ¥X | ¥X | ¥X | ¥X | ¥X | ¥X | | Feb | ¥X | ¥X | ¥X | ¥X | ¥X | ¥X |

Step 4: Benchmarking

**China-specific benchmarks by industry:**

| Industry | CAC Payback | LTV/CAC | Typical ARPU | |----------|-------------|---------|--------------| | 消费品牌 | 6-12 months | 3-5x | ¥200-500 | | SaaS (ToB) | 12-18 months | 3-5x | ¥5,000-50,000 | | 电商 | 1-3 months | 2-4x | ¥100-300 | | 游戏 | 1-2 months | 4-10x | ¥50-200 | | 在线教育 | 3-6 months | 2-4x | ¥1,000-5,000 | | 金融科技 | 6-12 months | 3-5x | ¥500-2,000 |

Step 5: Sensitivity Analysis

**Key sensitivities:**

| Variable | -20% | -10% | Base | +10% | +20% | |----------|------|------|------|------|------| | ARPU | | | | | | | Gross margin | | | | | | | Customer lifetime | | | | | | | CAC | | | | | |

Step 6: Recommendations

**Based on unit economics:**

| LTV/CAC | Assessment | Recommendation | |---------|------------|---------------| | >5x | Excellent | Scale aggressively | | 3-5x | Good | Scale with monitoring | | 2-3x | Acceptable | Optimize CAC/margin | | 1-2x | Poor | Fix model before scaling | | <1x | Broken | Fundamental rethink |

China-Specific Considerations

Customer Acquisition in China

| Channel | CAC | Quality | Notes | |---------|-----|---------|-------| | 线上投放 (Online ads) | Medium | Variable | 抖音, 小红书, 百度 | | 社交裂变 (Social referral) | Low | Medium | 拼多多 model | | 经销商 (Distribution) | Low | Depends | 渠道下沉 | | 线下门店 (Offline stores) | High | High | Premium experience | | 直播带货 (Livestream) | Medium | Variable | 抖音, 淘宝直播 | | 私域运营 (Private traffic) | Low | High | WeChat ecosystem |

China Consumer Behavior

| Behavior | Impact on Unit Economics | |----------|-------------------------| | 价格敏感 | Lower ARPU, higher churn on price increases | | 社交驱动 | Viral referral reduces CAC | | 品牌忠诚度 | Higher LTV for established brands | | 渠道偏好 | Multi-channel complexity | | 促销依赖 | Revenue quality concerns |

E-commerce Unit Economics

**Key metrics for China e-commerce:**

| Metric | Formula | Benchmark | |--------|---------|-----------| | GMV | Gross merchandise value | Top-line | | Take rate | Revenue / GMV | 3-10% | | Customer acquisition | CAC / order | ¥20-200 | | Return rate | Returns / orders | 5-20% (sector varies) | | AOV | Revenue / orders | ¥50-500 | | Fulfillment cost | Logistics / order | ¥5-30 |

Quality Checks

Before delivering:

• [ ] Unit defined clearly
• [ ] Revenue model correct
• [ ] CAC/LTV calculated correctly
• [ ] Cohort data (if available) incorporated
• [ ] Benchmarking relevant
• [ ] Sensitivities run
• [ ] Recommendations actionable

> **Data Source Mode Switch**: Set env