/china-thesis-tracker

name: china-thesis-tracker
description: Maintain and update investment theses for A-share portfolio positions and watchlist names. Track key data points, catalysts, milestones, and thesis validity over time. Adapted from the original thesis-tracker skill for Chinese market conventions. Triggers on "A股持仓逻辑跟踪", "投资逻辑更新", "thesis check China", "update thesis for [company]", "is my thesis still intact", or "A股持仓复盘".

china-thesis-tracker

Purpose

Track and maintain **A股投资逻辑/thesis** for portfolio positions and watchlist names, ensuring thesis validity is continuously monitored.

Data Sources

Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)

get_quote(ticker)                        → Current price, valuation
get_historical_data(ticker)             → Price trajectory
get_financials(ticker, "income")         → Financial performance
# News (china-news MCP — separate server)
get_stock_news(ticker="{{TICKER}}")          → News affecting thesis
get_industry_stocks(industry="...")      → Peer context

Secondary Sources

• 巨潮公告 — corporate actions and filings
• 业绩说明会 — management commentary
• 券商研报 — analyst updates
• Wind / Choice — ownership and flow data

Workflow

Step 1: Define / Load Thesis

**Thesis statement template:**

公司：[Company]（[Ticker]）
行业：[Industry]
方向：[Long / Short / Watch]

核心投资逻辑 (3-5 bullet points):
1. [Key driver 1]
2. [Key driver 2]
3. [Key driver 3]

目标价：¥XX.XX (X% upside/downside)
时间 horizon：[6M / 1Y / 2Y]
置信度：[High / Medium / Low]

**Thesis components:**

| Component | Description | Example | |-----------|-------------|---------| | 核心逻辑 (Core thesis) | Why will the stock move? | 批价上行驱动盈利超预期 | | 关键假设 (Key assumptions) | What must be true? | 批价 >1000元, 动销增速 >15% | | 催化剂 (Catalysts) | What triggers re-rating? | Q1业绩, 批价数据, 政策变化 | | 风险因素 (Risks) | What could break the thesis? | 批价下行, 竞品放量, 政策风险 | | 目标价 (Target) | Fair value estimate | ¥2000 (基于25x PE) | | 止损位 (Stop loss) | Downside risk limit | ¥1500 (对应20x PE) |

Step 2: Track Key Data Points

**Company-specific KPIs:**

| KPI | Frequency | Source | Trend | |-----|-----------|--------|-------| | e.g., 批价 | Weekly | 渠道调研, 新闻 | ↑ / → / ↓ | | e.g., 动销增速 | Monthly | 经销商反馈 | ↑ / → / ↓ | | e.g., 产能利用率 | Quarterly | 年报/中报 | ↑ / → / ↓ |

**Financial metrics to track:**

| Metric | Last Reported | Trend | Thesis Impact | |--------|--------------|-------|---------------| | Revenue growth | | | | | Gross margin | | | | | Net margin | | | | | ROE | | | | | Net debt/EBITDA | | | |

**Market metrics:**

| Metric | Current | 52W High | 52W Low | Thesis Relevance | |--------|---------|----------|---------|------------------| | Stock price | | | | | | Market cap | | | | | | PE (TTM) | | | | | | PB | | | | | | YTD return | | | | |

Step 3: Monitor Catalysts

**Catalyst checklist:**

| Catalyst | Expected Date | Status | Outcome | Thesis Impact | |----------|--------------|--------|---------|----------------| | Q1 季报 | Apr 25 | Pending | | | | 批价数据 | Weekly | Ongoing | 稳定在980元 | Positive | | 股东大会 | May 15 | Scheduled | | |

**Catalyst outcome assessment:**

• **Confirming**: Result supports thesis → increase conviction
• **Neutral**: Result as expected → maintain position
• **Breaking**: Result contradicts thesis → reduce/exit position

Step 4: Thesis Validity Check

**Regular review questions:**

1. **Has the thesis changed?**

• Core drivers still intact?
• New information adding to or subtracting from thesis?

2. **Are assumptions still valid?**

• Key assumptions: still on track?
• Any material change to underlying business?

3. **Is the timing right?**

• Catalyst timeline progressing as expected?
• Market pricing in the thesis?

4. **Is the risk/reward still favorable?**

• Upside/downside ratio updated?
• Entry price still reasonable?

5. **Should thesis be adjusted?**

• Target price update
• Risk factors added/removed
• Time horizon extended/contracted

Step 5: Thesis Status

**Status categories:**

| Status | Definition | Action | |--------|-----------|--------| | Intact (逻辑 intact) | All assumptions hold, catalysts on track | Maintain / add on weakness | | Under pressure (承压) | Some assumptions challenged, thesis not broken | Monitor closely, define exit criteria | | Broken (逻辑破) | Core thesis invalidated | Exit position, document lessons | | Evolving (演进中) | Thesis needs update based on new info | Update thesis statement, re-evaluate |

Step 6: Update Documentation

**Thesis update log:**

[公司] 投资逻辑更新 [Date]

一、当前状态：[Intact / Under pressure / Broken / Evolving]

二、本期间重要变化：
   - [Change 1]: [Impact on thesis]
   - [Change 2]: [Impact on thesis]

三、数据追踪：
   [Key metrics updated]

四、催化剂进展：
   [Catalyst status update]

五、决策：
   - [Maintain / Add / Reduce / Exit]
   - [Rationale]

六、后续关注：
   - [Next check-in date]
   - [Key metrics to watch]

Step 7: Portfolio-Level Review

**Aggregate view:**

| Position | Thesis Status | Conviction | Days Held | P&L | Next Catalyst | Action | |----------|--------------|------------|-----------|-----|---------------|--------| | | | | | | | |

**Portfolio-level insights:**

• Which theses are working? Common factors?
• Which theses are breaking? Common risks?
• Concentration risk (too many bets on similar thesis?)
• Hedge effectiveness ( shorts protecting longs?)

China-Specific Thesis Considerations

Common A-share Thesis Types

| Thesis Type | Description | Key Metrics | |-------------|-------------|-------------| | 批价上行 | Liquor sector price appreciation | 批价, 库存, 动销 | | 国产替代 | Import substitution | 市场份额, 认证进展 | | 产能出清 | Industry capacity rationalization | 产能利用率, 价格 | | 政策利好 | Policy tailwind | 政策落地, 补贴 | | 困境反转 | Distressed turnaround | 债务重组, 新管理层 | | 行业整合 | M&A consolidation | 集中度, 并购活动 | | 技术突破 | Technology breakthrough | 专利, 订单 | | 消费升级 | Premiumization | ASP, 产品结构 |

A-share Market Risks to Track

| Risk Type | Indicator | Mitigation | |-----------|-----------|--------