/china-model-update

name: china-model-update
description: Update A-share financial models with new quarterly data, management guidance, or macro changes. Reflects actuals, rolls estimates forward, flags material changes, and updates valuation. Adapted from the original model-update skill for Chinese market conventions and AkShare data. Triggers on "A股模型更新", "模型更新", "plug earnings into model", "update model for [company]", "刷新预测", or "更新财务模型".

china-model-update

Purpose

Update existing **A股财务模型** with new data, ensuring all cells are traceable to sources and all changes are documented.

Data Sources

Primary: iFind MCP (Tier-1 付费) / AkShare MCP (Tier-2 免费备选)

get_financials(ticker, "income", "quarterly")   → Q[X] actual results
get_financials(ticker, "balance", "quarterly")  → BS update
get_financials(ticker, "cashflow", "quarterly") → CF update
get_financials(ticker, "income", "annual")      → Full year update
get_quote(ticker)                               → Current market data
get_stock_info(ticker)                          → Any company changes

Secondary Sources

• **巨潮资讯** — official filings for exact figures
• **业绩说明会 transcript** — management commentary
• **管理层指引** — guidance from earnings calls
• **Wind / Choice / 同花顺** — consensus updates

Workflow

Step 1: Identify What Changed

**Change triggers:**

• Quarterly earnings release (季报/年报)
• Management guidance update (管理层指引调整)
• Macro assumption change (rate, tax, policy)
• Model error or refinement
• M&A or restructuring event

**Change log template:**

| Date | Change Type | Item | Old Value | New Value | Reason | |------|-------------|------|-----------|-----------|--------| | | Earnings update | Revenue FY25E | XX亿 | XX亿 | Q1 actuals beat | | | Guidance | Tax rate | 25% | 25% | No change | | | Macro | CapEx % | 5% | 6% | New plant announced |

Step 2: Update Historical Actuals

**Quarterly actuals:**

[Company] Q[X] 20XX Actuals (from AkShare / 巨潮):
- 营业收入: XXX亿 (YoY: +XX%)
- 毛利率: XX% (vs prior: XX%)
- 归母净利润: XXX亿 (YoY: +XX%)
- EPS: X.XX元
- 经营现金流: XXX亿

**Update sequence:** 1. Drop Q[X] actuals into historical columns 2. Verify sum checks (quarterly sum = annual) 3. Update LTM (Last Twelve Months) calculations 4. Check annual-to-quarter relationships

Step 3: Roll Forward Estimates

**Revenue projections:**

• Update growth rates based on Q[X] performance
• Consider:
• Order backlog changes
• New product ramp
• Market share gains/losses
• Capacity expansion

**Margin projections:**

• Update gross margin based on actual trend
• Update opex ratios based on actual leverage
• Flag structural changes (input costs, pricing power)

**Balance sheet projections:**

• Update working capital assumptions
• Update debt schedule if refinancing occurred
• Update CapEx plans

Step 4: Update Valuation

**Market data refresh:**

get_quote(ticker)  # Current price, PE, PB

**Valuation metrics to update:**

• Current stock price and change
• Trading multiple (PE, PB, EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA)
• 52-week range position
• Relative to sector median
• Implied growth vs historical

**DCF updates (if applicable):**

• Roll forward projections by one year
• Update market data inputs (beta, risk-free rate, shares)
• Update terminal growth if outlook changed

Step 5: Flag Material Changes

**Change significance assessment:**

| Change | Threshold | Action | |--------|-----------|--------| | Revenue estimate | ±5% | Update model, note driver | | Net income estimate | ±10% | Update model, revise target price | | Margin estimate | ±100 bps | Update model, assess sustainability | | CapEx estimate | ±20% | Update model, check FCF impact | | Multiple assumption | ±1x | Sensitivity check, document rationale |

**Red flags to highlight:**

• Revenue growth deceleration >500 bps
• Margin compression >300 bps
• Working capital deterioration
• Debt increase >20% vs prior forecast
• Management guidance lower than consensus

Step 6: Document Changes

**Model update memo:**

[公司名称]（[代码]）模型更新 [Date]

一、更新内容
   [Bullet list of changes made]

二、关键变动
   Revenue FY25E: [Old] → [New] ([Change]%)
   Net Income FY25E: [Old] → [New] ([Change]%)
   Driver: [Explanation]

三、估值影响
   新目标价: ¥XX.XX (之前 ¥XX.XX)
   调整幅度: +X% / -X%
   调整逻辑: [Brief rationale]

四、后续关注
   - [Next catalyst]
   - [Key metric to monitor]
   - [Risk factor]

Step 7: QC Checklist

**Before finalizing:**

• [ ] All Q[X] actuals sourced from 巨潮 PDF or AkShare
• [ ] Historical data matches reported figures exactly
• [ ] All formulas intact (no broken references)
• [ ] LTM calculations updated
• [ ] Forward estimates reflect new information
• [ ] Valuation inputs refreshed (price, shares, multiples)
• [ ] Target price recalculated
• [ ] Change log complete
• [ ] Cell comments added for new inputs
• [ ] Model balances correctly

China-Specific Update Considerations

Earnings Season Timing

| Report | Deadline | Typical Release Window | |--------|----------|------------------------| | Q1季报 | Apr 30 | Apr 1-30 | | 中报 | Aug 31 | Aug 1-31 | | Q3季报 | Oct 31 | Oct 1-31 | | 年报 | Apr 30 | Jan-Apr |

**Model update priority:**

• Annual report: Complete overhaul of historicals
• Semi-annual: Major update, adjust full-year estimates
• Quarterly: Incremental update, verify full-year trajectory

业绩预告 Integration

If company issued 业绩预告:

• Use as directional signal before formal report
• Adjust estimates if variance >20% from prior
• Flag for detailed update when formal report arrives

Consensus Management

• Update consensus assumptions based on new information
• If company guidance differs from consensus, flag divergence
• Note if management commentary suggests estimate revision

Regulatory Changes

Monitor for:

• Tax rate changes (高新技术企业 reclassification)
• Accounting standard updates
• Industry-specific regulation impacts on assumptions
• Dividend policy changes (影响 DCF terminal value)

Quality Checks

Before delivering:

• [ ]