/ito-market-intelligence

name: ito-market-intelligence
description: Research prediction-market events, venues, underliers, liquidity, and news context for Itô basket workflows. Use for read-only market intelligence, API-gated Itô exploration, and source-grounded prediction-market briefings without investment advice or live trading.

Itô Market Intelligence

Use this skill when a user wants prediction-market context, event discovery, venue comparison, basket theme exploration, or an Itô API-backed market brief.

Use public sources by default. Any Itô-backed data call requires the user to explicitly request Itô data and requires a scoped `ITO_API_KEY`. Never print, persist, or ask the user to paste a key into chat.

Guardrails

• Do not provide investment, legal, tax, or trading advice.
• Do not place, cancel, route, or simulate live orders.
• Do not infer the user's financial situation unless they provide it.
• Treat Polymarket, Kalshi, Itô, X, Exa, GitHub, and web data as source inputs,

not as truth by themselves.

• Separate facts, market-implied signals, and your interpretation.
• Never claim a price, volume, liquidity value, timestamp, venue rule, or news

event that is absent from a cited response or source.

• Treat every remote response as a snapshot. Show its retrieval time, source

URL, and source-provided update time when available. Call data stale or unknown rather than silently treating it as current.

Workflow

1. Clarify the market theme, venue, geography, and time horizon. 2. Gather public market data from venue docs/APIs or source-grounded research. Cite the exact source URL next to each material claim and distinguish the publication/update time from the retrieval time. 3. If the user explicitly asks for Itô data, run the bundled read-only client:

   node scripts/ito-market-intelligence.js --json search-markets --platform all --limit 25

The client reads `ITO_API_KEY` from the environment, sends it only to the configured Itô HTTPS origin, never logs it, and permits only documented GET endpoints. Do not run it merely because a key exists. 4. Normalize event, underlier, liquidity, fee, resolution, and data-latency differences across venues. 5. Produce a decision brief:

• market/event summary
• available venues and underliers
• liquidity and data-quality caveats
• relevant news/source context
• open questions before any user action

Authentication and recovery

• Market-data API keys are separate from the Itô compute CLI's device login.

Do not run `ito login`, `ecc ito login`, or open a browser for this skill: those credentials are not a documented substitute for a `baskets:read` or `markets:read` API key. Return control to the originating agent after stating the missing scope and operator-driven access requirement.

• On `AUTH_MISSING`, request a scoped key through the user's established Itô

access channel without collecting it in chat. On `AUTH_REJECTED`, say the key may be expired, revoked, or missing the required read scope.

• On `RATE_LIMITED`, respect `retry_after_seconds`; do not loop automatically.

On `TIMEOUT` or `UPSTREAM_ERROR`, preserve prior cited facts, label the live snapshot unavailable, and offer a bounded retry. Never replace failed live data with invented values.

• `ITO_MARKET_API_URL` may override the API origin for deterministic local

tests. In normal use keep the default `https://itomarkets.com/api/v1`.

Useful Skill Chains

• Use `deep-research` or `exa-search` for source discovery.
• Use `x-api` for public social signal discovery when X access is configured.
• Use `market-research` for market sizing, competitors, or business use cases.
• Use `prediction-market-risk-review` before any workflow touches user capital,

portfolio data, or execution-capable credentials.

Output Contract

Default to a compact brief containing `retrieved_at`, source links, source-provided timestamps, freshness caveats, facts, market-implied signals, interpretation, and actionable open questions. End with:

This is market intelligence, not investment or trading advice.

If access is missing, say:

Itô live basket/API data requires gated access. Request an ITO_API_KEY before
using Itô-backed reads.