/competitive-scenario

name: competitive-scenario
description: What will competitors do? — Competitive method progress prediction and
  time window analysis
version: 1.0.0
category: experiment-execution
type: strategy
sops:
- scenario-driver-identification
- competitive-move-prediction
- timeline-projection
- scenario-impact-assessment
- robustness-scoring
- scenario-synthesis
tactics:
- strategy-robustness-testing
dependencies:
  sops:
  - competitive-move-prediction
  - robustness-scoring
  - scenario-driver-identification
  - scenario-impact-assessment
  - scenario-synthesis
  - timeline-projection
  tactics:
  - strategy-robustness-testing

Strategy: Competitive Scenario

Methodology

Competitive Intelligence Scenario Planning. Predict competitor progress, publication timelines, and methodological breakthroughs that could affect our research positioning. Assess time windows of opportunity and first-mover advantages.

Key principles:

• **Actor-based thinking**: Model specific competitors and their capabilities
• **Publication signals**: Use publication patterns to predict future directions
• **Time windows**: Identify windows of opportunity that may close
• **Preemption risk**: Assess probability of being scooped or rendered redundant

Execution Flow

1. **Identify competitive drivers** → spawn `scenario-driver-identification`

• Input: research field, known competitors, publication landscape
• Output: competitive uncertainty drivers

2. **Predict competitor moves** → spawn `competitive-move-prediction` (×3-5 competitors)

• Input: competitor profile, publication history, resource level
• Output: predicted actions and timelines per competitor

3. **Project timelines** → spawn `timeline-projection`

• Input: competitor predictions, technology maturity
• Output: competitive timeline with key milestones

4. **Assess impact** → spawn `scenario-impact-assessment` (per competitive scenario)

• Input: competitive scenario, our research approach
• Output: positioning impact, window analysis

5. **Score robustness** → spawn `robustness-scoring`

• Input: all competitive assessments
• Output: competitive robustness index

6. **Synthesize** → spawn `scenario-synthesis`

• Input: competitive scenarios, timelines, robustness
• Output: competitive strategy report

Budget Gate

| Step | Token Budget | Notes | |------|-------------|-------| | Driver identification | 8K | Competitor-focused | | Move prediction | 10K × N | N = 3-5 key competitors | | Timeline projection | 12K | Multi-horizon | | Impact assessment | 10K × N | Per competitive scenario | | Robustness scoring | 8K | Competitive positioning | | Synthesis | 12K | Strategy recommendations |

<!-- BEGIN available-tables (generated) -->

Available Tactics

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

| Tactic | When to use | | --- | --- | | strategy-robustness-testing | Orchestrates impact assessment and robustness scoring to evaluate research approach resilience across scenarios |

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

| SOP | When to use | | --- | --- | | competitive-move-prediction | Predict competitor progress, publications, and strategic moves | | robustness-scoring | Compute robustness index across scenarios with sensitivity analysis | | scenario-driver-identification | Identify key uncertainty drivers using PESTEL framework scanning | | scenario-impact-assessment | Assess each scenario's impact on the research approach across multiple dimensions | | scenario-synthesis | Comprehensive scenario analysis report synthesizing all scenario work | | timeline-projection | Extrapolate research landscape timelines using trend analysis and milestone projection |

<!-- END available-tables (generated) -->