/competing-hypothesis-generation

name: competing-hypothesis-generation
description: 'SOP: Generate mechanistically distinct competing hypotheses for the same phenomenon'
version: 1.0.0
category: hypothesis-formation
type: sop
campaign: hypothesis-formulation
input: Phenomenon description + primary hypothesis (from upstream output)
output: Competing hypothesis list (mechanistically distinct, not variants of the primary hypothesis)
dependencies:
  skills:
  - subagent-spawning

Competing Hypothesis Generation

Generate genuinely distinct competing hypotheses for the same phenomenon to guard against confirmation bias and keep explanations open.

HARD-GATE

<HARD-GATE> Preconditions (all must hold before starting): 1. At least 1 primary hypothesis is available (with statement + mechanism) 2. A phenomenon description is provided (the phenomenon the primary hypothesis attempts to explain)

Not satisfied → stop and return error: primary hypothesis and phenomenon description required. </HARD-GATE>

Pipeline

1. Precondition check: verify completeness of the primary hypothesis and phenomenon description 2. Alternative mechanism search: look for different causal mechanisms that can explain the same phenomenon 3. Alternative theory application: derive predictions about the same phenomenon from different theoretical frameworks 4. Reverse reasoning: consider explanations with the opposite causal direction 5. Deduplication: ensure each competing hypothesis is mechanistically distinct from the primary hypothesis and from the other competing hypotheses 6. Output competing hypothesis list

Output Format

[
  {
    "hypothesis_id": "CH1",
    "statement": "Competing hypothesis statement",
    "mechanism": "Different causal mechanism from the primary hypothesis",
    "theoretical_basis": "Theory or reasoning supporting this alternative",
    "key_difference": "How this differs mechanistically from the primary hypothesis",
    "shared_prediction": "Prediction shared with primary hypothesis (makes discrimination hard)",
    "unique_prediction": "Prediction unique to this hypothesis (enables discrimination)"
  }
]

At least 2 competing hypotheses, each mechanistically distinct from the primary hypothesis. </output>