/assumption-excavation

name: assumption-excavation
description: Systematic extraction, challenge, and sensitivity analysis of assumptions
  underlying a decision to identify load-bearing beliefs.
execution: tactic
dependencies:
  sops:
  - conclusion-sensitivity
  - convergence-assumption-challenge
  - convergence-assumption-extraction

Assumption Excavation

A three-phase tactic that surfaces hidden assumptions, challenges each one adversarially, and maps which assumptions are load-bearing for the conclusion. Decisions often rest on unstated beliefs — this tactic makes them explicit and tests their strength.

Stages

1. **Assumption Extraction** — Systematically surface all assumptions underlying the decision, with confidence levels 2. **Assumption Challenge** — For each assumption, construct the strongest counter-argument and identify alternatives 3. **Conclusion Sensitivity** — Map which assumptions, if wrong, would change the conclusion

Available SOPs

| SOP | Phase | Purpose | |-----|-------|---------| | assumption-extraction | Extract | Surface hidden assumptions with confidence | | assumption-challenge | Challenge | Attack each assumption adversarially | | conclusion-sensitivity | Sensitivity | Map load-bearing assumptions |

Execution Guidance

• Extract minimum 5 assumptions per decision
• Challenge ALL assumptions, not just obvious ones
• Confidence levels: HIGH (>80%), MEDIUM (50-80%), LOW (<50%)
• Critical assumption = conclusion changes if assumption is wrong
• Focus mitigation efforts on critical + low-confidence assumptions

Minimum Yield

• >= 5 assumptions extracted with confidence levels
• Challenge argument for each assumption
• Alternative assumption for each (what if the opposite is true?)
• Sensitivity map showing which assumptions are critical
• List of critical assumptions requiring mitigation

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Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

| SOP | When to use | | --- | --- | | conclusion-sensitivity | Map which assumptions are load-bearing by assessing how the conclusion changes if each assumption fails. | | convergence-assumption-challenge | Construct the strongest counter-argument against a specific assumption and propose alternatives. | | convergence-assumption-extraction | Systematically surface hidden assumptions underlying a decision with confidence levels. |

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