/alternative-analysis

name: alternative-analysis
description: 'Strategy: What-If Analysis, Alternative Futures, and Four Ways of Seeing
  — generate competing explanations and scenarios to challenge the dominant narrative.'
type: strategy
tactics:
- structured-attack-campaign
- adversarial-roleplay
dependencies:
  tactics:
  - adversarial-roleplay
  - structured-attack-campaign
  sops:
  - alternative-futures
  - attack-vector-generation
  - finding-aggregation
  - probe-execution
  - threat-surface-mapping

Alternative Analysis Strategy

CIA SAT alternative analysis: generate multiple competing interpretations to prevent anchoring on a single explanation.

Method

1. **alternative-futures** builds 2-4 divergent scenarios from the same evidence base 2. What-If Analysis: systematically vary key variables to explore outcome sensitivity 3. Four Ways of Seeing: examine artifact through lenses of opportunity, risk, structure, and agency 4. **probe-execution** tests each alternative against available evidence 5. Diagnostic indicators identified that would discriminate between alternatives 6. **finding-aggregation** compares explanatory power across alternatives

Budget Table

| Parameter | S | M | L | |---|---|---|---| | Attack vectors | 5 | 12 | 20 | | Probing rounds | 3 | 6 | 10 | | Personas | 2 | 4 | 6 | | Assumption checks | 5 | 10 | 20 |

Orchestration

threat-surface-mapping → [identify variable dimensions]
→ alternative-futures (generate 2-4 scenarios)
→ [for each alternative]:
    attack-vector-generation (find discriminating tests)
    → probe-execution (test alternative)
→ finding-aggregation → attack-resilience-scoring

Subagents

• threat-surface-mapping (dimension identification)
• alternative-futures (scenario generation)
• attack-vector-generation (discriminating test design)
• probe-execution (alternative testing)
• finding-aggregation (comparative synthesis)

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Available Tactics

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

| Tactic | When to use | | --- | --- | | adversarial-roleplay | Tactic: Construct detailed hostile persona, attack artifact from that persona's perspective, record successful attack paths for aggregation. | | structured-attack-campaign | Tactic: Full attack lifecycle — threat surface enumeration, attack vector generation, systematic probing, and finding aggregation across all surfaces. |

Available SOPs

Optional, no fixed order; the final leaf is always a sop.

| SOP | When to use | | --- | --- | | alternative-futures | Generate 2-4 divergent scenarios from the same evidence base, each representing a plausible alternative to the artifact's conclusions. | | attack-vector-generation | Generate specific attack strategies for a given threat surface, producing concrete probes that can be executed. | | finding-aggregation | Aggregate, deduplicate, and classify findings from multiple probes into a coherent vulnerability report. | | probe-execution | Execute a single attack probe against an artifact, record the result with evidence and severity classification. | | threat-surface-mapping | Enumerate all attackable surfaces of an artifact — logical, empirical, methodological, social, and practical dimensions. |

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