/earnings-preview

description: The before-earnings skill — consensus vs. whisper, 8-quarter beat rate and post-print move distribution, options-implied vs. realized move, what the current price already assumes, the KPIs to watch, and a three-scenario grid (beat-and-raise / beat-and-lower / miss) with expected reaction and a position rule for each

Earnings Preview — What Is Priced In Before the Print

⚠️ Data Verification — Do This Before Any Analysis

Before running any analysis, always retrieve the latest market data for the ticker:

1. **Fetch current price** — use web search or ask the user for the live price, 52-week range, and market cap. Never assume a price from training data. 2. **Confirm the event and the expectations** — the **confirmed earnings date and time (BMO / AMC)** from the company's IR page (not a calendar estimate), the current **consensus revenue / EPS / guidance** with its as-of date, the **prior guidance range** management gave last quarter, and **current option prices** for the expiration that spans the print (at-the-money straddle, or implied volatility). Never carry consensus from memory — it moves in the final two weeks. 3. **State your data source** — fill in the `Data & Sources` header (next section) so the origin, as-of date, retrieval path, and confidence of every figure are explicit at the top of the output. 4. **Flag stale data explicitly** — if live data is unavailable, display this warning before proceeding:

> ⚠️ **Live data unavailable.** The following analysis uses training-data estimates which may be significantly out of date. Verify all prices and metrics before making any decisions.

Never silently substitute training-data estimates for current prices. When in doubt, ask the user to paste the latest quote.

---

📋 Data & Sources Header — Open Every Output With It

The first thing in the output is this provenance block, filled in — never left as placeholders. It is the standard documented on the [Data & Accuracy](https://yennanliu.github.io/InvestSkill/data-and-accuracy.html) page and the first thing `result-validator` looks for:

Data & Sources
  As of:      <date the figures represent, e.g. 2026-06-30>
  Source:     <primary docs — SEC EDGAR 10-K/10-Q, company IR, FRED, exchange data …>
  Retrieval:  <pasted by user | web/tool retrieval | model memory>
  Confidence: <HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW>

• `Retrieval: model memory` must be paired with `Confidence: LOW` — memory is a placeholder until confirmed against a primary source.
• Mixed sources: list each with its own as-of date rather than blending them.
• Sources disagree on the same figure (a closing price, a deal term): prefer the primary source (SEC filing, company release, exchange data) over an aggregator, then the most recent dated one. Show both values with their sources and dates, say which you used and why, and never average them.
• Data the user pasted is reported as `pasted by user`; do not upgrade its confidence beyond what the user's own source supports.

---

Overview

The catalog already covers earnings *after* the fact: `earnings-call-analysis` reads the transcript, `financial-report-analyst` reads the 10-Q, `catalyst-calendar` puts the date on a list. None of them answers the question a holder actually has in the week before the print: **what does the market already expect, how has this stock treated good news before, and what am I going to do in each outcome — decided now, while I am calm?**

This skill is that pre-commitment. It produces four things no post-call skill can:

1. **The expectation stack** — published consensus, the buy-side "whisper" above it, and management's own prior guidance, so a "beat" can be judged against the number that actually matters. 2. **The stock's own history with beats** — eight quarters of beat/miss against the next-day move, which is where "beat and drop" patterns live. 3. **What the price already assumes** — the growth and margin the current quote requires, so the reader knows whether a beat is *news* or merely *confirmation*. 4. **A three-scenario grid with a rule attached to each cell** — so the reaction on print day is execution, not decision.

**What it is not.** It does not predict the print. Nobody knows the number; the skill's value is in knowing what *others* expect and what *you* will do. It is also not an options strategy tool — it reads the options market for its implied move and hands strategy selection to `options-analysis`.

Pairs with `earnings-call-analysis` (run it *after*, on the transcript), `options-analysis` (strategy for the implied move), `catalyst-calendar` (the date and the events around it), `thesis-tracker` (the print is a scheduled next-check — the KPIs here should be the KPIs there), and `position-ladder` (the position rules in the scenario grid should respect its share-count ceiling).

---

1. Inputs

| Input | Required | Default if unstated | |-------|----------|---------------------| | Ticker | ✅ | — | | Confirmed earnings date and time (BMO / AMC) | ✅ | fetch from company IR; if only a calendar estimate exists, say so and mark Confidence MEDIUM at best | | Current consensus: revenue, EPS, next-quarter / FY guidance | ✅ | fetch or ask; state the as-of date | | Management's prior guidance range | ✅ | from the last press release / call | | Current price, ATM straddle price or IV for the expiry spanning the print | ✅ | fetch or ask | | Last 8 quarters: reported vs. consensus, next-day move | recommended | fetch or ask; fewer than 6 quarters → note the thin sample | | Prior-quarter transcript or `earnings-call-analysis` output | optional | improves the KPI list and the "what management promised" line | | Existing `thesis-tracker` file or `stock-eval` output | optional | supplies the KPIs and thresholds that should decide the reaction | | Position: shares, cost basis, ceiling from `position-ladder` | optional | needed for the position rules; otherwise rules are stated generically |

**Whisper numbers are estima