/tool-foundation-sprint-founding-hypothesis

name: tool-foundation-sprint-founding-hypothesis
description: Day 2 end capstone move of a Foundation Sprint. Compresses the sprint's full strategic frame into a single canonical sentence (the Founding Hypothesis) plus an assumption scorecard, why-we-believe, what-could-prove-us-wrong, and recommended next validation step. Use after Magic Lenses is signed. Strict canonical template; paraphrase is not accepted in v0.1.0. The Founding Hypothesis is the spine artifact the sprint exists to produce.
license: Apache-2.0
metadata:
  classification: tool
  version: "1.0.0"
  updated: 2026-07-04
  tool: foundation-sprint
  move: founding-hypothesis
  category: problem-framing
  frameworks:
    - foundation-sprint
    - click
  timebox_minutes: 45
  roles:
    - facilitator
    - decider
    - pm
  prerequisites:
    - tool-foundation-sprint-basics
    - tool-foundation-sprint-differentiation
    - tool-foundation-sprint-magic-lenses
  inputs:
    - basics bundled artifact
    - differentiation bundled artifact
    - top bet and backup
  outputs:
    - founding hypothesis statement
    - assumption scorecard
    - why we believe this
    - what could prove us wrong
    - recommended next validation step
  author: product-on-purpose

<!-- PM-Skills | https://github.com/product-on-purpose/pm-skills | Apache 2.0 -->

Foundation Sprint Founding Hypothesis

Day 2 end of a Foundation Sprint. The team compresses the full sprint output into a single canonical sentence plus a testable scorecard. This is the artifact the sprint exists to produce; everything before this skill was preparation. Without a ratifiable Founding Hypothesis, the sprint failed.

Family contract: [`docs/reference/skill-families/foundation-sprint-skills-contract.md`](../../docs/reference/skill-families/foundation-sprint-skills-contract.md). This skill is a member of `foundation-sprint-skills`.

When to Use

• Day 2 end of a Foundation Sprint.
• Magic Lenses is signed; top bet and backup are named.
• The team has 30-45 minutes left in Day 2 and the energy to write the sentence carefully.

When NOT to Use

• Magic Lenses did not produce a clear top bet. Return to Magic Lenses; the Founding Hypothesis cannot stabilize on an unstable top bet.
• The team wants to "polish the hypothesis later." The hypothesis must be ratified by end of Day 2 or the sprint output is incomplete. Polishing later means re-litigating; that defeats the sprint's purpose.
• The team wants to ratify a vague hypothesis to "ship the sprint." A vague hypothesis is worse than no hypothesis; it gives false confidence and burns trust when validation fails.

What This Skill Produces

A single bundled artifact with five sections:

1. **Founding Hypothesis statement**: the single canonical sentence (strict template, no paraphrase). 2. **Assumption scorecard**: 5-7 assumptions extracted from the hypothesis, each scored on current confidence and tagged with a best next test (3-10 accepted; recommended range is 5-7). 3. **Why we believe this**: 3-5 bulleted points naming the evidence base. 4. **What could prove us wrong**: 3-5 bulleted points naming the risks. This section is the test of whether the team is in love with the hypothesis or holding it with calibrated confidence. 5. **Recommended next validation step**: Design Sprint, customer research, experiment, landing page test, or other. Names the specific test, owner, and timeline.

See `references/TEMPLATE.md` for the canonical template and `references/EXAMPLE.md` for the Brainshelf example.

The Canonical Template (Strict)

If we help [target customer] solve [important problem]
with [approach], they will choose it over [competitors or alternatives]
because our solution is [differentiators].

This template is strict for v0.1.0 (per ratified spec decision). Paraphrase is not accepted. Variations like "Because we help X with Y..." or compressing two slots into one ("solve [problem] with [approach]") are rejected by the skill. The strictness is intentional: forcing the template forces the team to fill every slot specifically.

The five slots are:

| Slot | Source | Discipline check | |---|---|---| | target customer | Basics target customer statement | Must be specific (markers, not segments) | | important problem | Basics important problem statement | Must be painful enough to drive switching | | approach | Magic Lenses top bet | Must be the top bet, not a softened version | | competitors or alternatives | Basics competitor map | Must include "do nothing" if it was named there | | differentiators | Differentiation chosen two | Must be both differentiators, not just one |

If any slot is vague, the skill rejects the hypothesis and prompts for revision.

What Makes a Good Founding Hypothesis

| Quality | What it means | |---|---| | Specific | Names a real customer and a real problem; not "users" and "frustrations" | | Comparative | Explains what customers choose today, including doing nothing | | Differentiated | States why this solution should win, not just that it should | | Testable | Translates into scorecard questions and experiments | | Simple | A customer can understand the promise quickly | | Uncomfortable enough to be useful | If nobody disagrees or feels exposed, the hypothesis may be too vague |

The "uncomfortable" quality is the hardest to enforce: teams unconsciously soften the hypothesis to make it ratifiable. The skill counter-acts by asking, in the discussion phase, "Who in this room would push back on this if they weren't on this team?" Silence is a signal that the hypothesis is too safe.

Assumption Scorecard

Decompose the hypothesis into 5-7 assumptions (recommended; 3-10 accepted per ratified spec decision). For each:

| Field | What goes here | |---|---| | Assumption | One sentence, derived from a specific slot of the hypothesis | | Why it matters | What would be invalidated if this assumption is wrong | | Current confidence | High / Medium-high / Medium / Medium-low