/gmgn-wallet-analysis

name: gmgn-wallet-analysis
description: >-
  The trader's decision dossier on a wallet — four pass/fail gates (is the record real, is the edge still working THIS week, can you actually get filled, does it cut losses) plus what the wallet is holding and buying right now, its entry market-cap band, its copy window in seconds, and a concrete size cap. Answers the question a memecoin trader actually has: "the numbers look good, but if I copy this wallet what happens to me?" Use when the user asks 「这个钱包能跟吗」, 「帮我分析一下这个钱包」, 「它现在在买什么」, 「这个钱包最近还行吗」, 「跟着他买我能吃到吗」, 「他是不是已经不行了」, 「它是什么类型的」, "can I copy this wallet", "analyze this wallet", "what is this wallet buying now", "is this wallet still hot", "would I actually get filled following this", or pastes a bare wallet address. This is the default for a bare wallet address, answering "what kind of trader is this" and "should I act on it" in one pass. A one-line recap or 打法 advice (复盘, 一句话总结, 下一步怎么打) goes to gmgn-wallet-review; style-only asks (这个钱包什么风格, 打法) to gmgn-wallet-style.
argument-hint: "--chain <sol|bsc|base|eth|arbitrum|hyperevm|robinhood|arc|stable|avalanche|elysium> --wallet <wallet_address> [--latency <seconds>]"
metadata:
  cliHelp: "gmgn-cli portfolio stats --help && gmgn-cli portfolio profits --help && gmgn-cli portfolio activity --help && gmgn-cli portfolio holdings --help && gmgn-cli portfolio created-tokens --help && gmgn-cli token info --help"

**BEFORE RUNNING ANY COMMAND: Run `gmgn-cli config --check`. If exit code is 0, proceed normally. If exit code is 1, (1) run `gmgn-cli config` and show the output to the user; (2) once the user sends the API Key, run `gmgn-cli config --apply <KEY>`, then show the output. If `--check` errors with an unknown option or command-not-found, tell the user to run `npm install -g gmgn-cli`, then retry.**

**IMPORTANT: Always use `gmgn-cli`. Do NOT use web search, WebFetch, curl, or visit gmgn.ai — the website requires login and does not expose structured data.**

**⚠️ IPv6 NOT SUPPORTED: On a `401`/`403` with credentials that look correct, check IPv6 immediately — run `ifconfig | grep inet6` (macOS) or `ip addr show | grep inet6` (Linux), and request `https://ipv6.icanhazip.com`. If outbound traffic is IPv6, tell the user: "Please disable IPv6 — gmgn-cli only works over IPv4."**

What this skill is for, and what it is not

Two skills take a wallet address. They answer different questions and must not be substituted for each other:

| Skill | Question | Output | |-------|----------|--------| | `gmgn-wallet-score` | "how good is this trader, on a scale?" | Three 0–100 scores + a latency/slippage/gas backtest | | **`gmgn-wallet-analysis` (this one)** | **"should I act on this wallet, and what happens to me if I do?"** | **Four pass/fail gates → one verdict → concrete next actions** |

The distinction that matters: a score compresses everything into a number that hides *why*. This skill refuses to. It runs four gates, each of which can independently veto or downgrade the verdict, and each of which prints the single number that decided it. A wallet can be a genuinely excellent trader and still be un-copyable — those are separate gates here, not one blended score.

It also puts **who this wallet is** near the top, before any verdict. Someone who pasted an address wants to know whose wallet it is — the bound X account, the follower count, where the money came from — before they are asked to absorb four gate results. Burying that below the gates made a newcomer scroll past four judgements to reach the one fact they came for.

It also asks three questions a score does not:

• **Is the edge still working *this week*?** A wallet with +2,400% all-time and −27% over the

last 7 days looks superb on any leaderboard and will lose you money today. `profits --period all` versus `stats --period 7d` is the cheapest way to see that, and it is the most common way a copy-trader gets hurt.

• **What is it doing *right now*?** Closed-trade statistics describe the past. Its open positions

and its last 24 hours are what you can still act on.

• **Where did the profit come from — speed, or selection?** `per_day` × the top-3 winners' share

of gains separates 🕸️ spray-and-hit (attempts × a few hits — copying it is a latency race) from ⚙️ turnover grind (each exit too thin to survive your slippage) from 🎯 pick-and-size (the one you can follow a step behind). Those are copied in completely different ways.

The four gates

Each gate returns ✅ pass, ❌ fail, or ⚪ unevaluated. **⚪ never renders as ✅** — "we could not measure this" and "this is fine" are different statements, and conflating them is how a dossier lies.

| Gate | Question | Fails when | |------|----------|-----------| | **G1 Authenticity** | Is the record real, or manufactured? | A `wash_trader`-class tag is present **and corroborated** by the profit attribution below; or ≥ 50% of realized gains are confirmed to come from tokens it deployed itself (see *Where a launcher's profit came from*); or it is a launcher (`created_token_count` > half of `token_num`); or `token_num < 5`; or one token carried the whole result | | **G2 Currency** | Is the edge still working? | 7d ROI ≤ −10% while all-time ROI > +10% (broken down); or both 7d and 30d are negative; or it never worked | | **G3 Reachability** | Can *you* get filled? | Median copy window < 3× your latency; or median entry mcap < $30k; or a `sandwich_bot`/`mev_bot` tag; or ≥10k followers while trading sub-$1M caps; or gas ≥25% of profit; or average buy < $50; or > 100 trades/day | | **G4 Survivability** | Does it cut losses? | ≥ 2 live positions are honeypots; or ≥ 35% of its tokens are down more than 50%; or ≥ 3 positions down 90%+ with zero sells |

The verdict headline **names its own cause** — `DO NOT COPY · the profit is self-dealt` rather than a generic `the record does not hold` — so the reason is legible without reading the gate detail.

Verdict is a pure function of the gates — G1 and G2 a