/strategize

name: strategize
description: Design identification strategy or pre-analysis plan. Dispatches Strategist (proposer) and strategist-critic (validator). Replaces /identify and /pre-analysis-plan.
argument-hint: "[mode: strategy | pap | pap interactive] [research question or spec path]"
allowed-tools: Read,Grep,Glob,Write,Task

Strategize

Design an identification strategy or pre-analysis plan by dispatching the **Strategist** (proposer) and **strategist-critic** (validator).

**Input:** `$ARGUMENTS` — mode keyword followed by research question or path to research spec.

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Modes

`/strategize [question]` or `/strategize strategy [question]` — Identification Strategy

Design the causal identification strategy.

**Agents:** Strategist → strategist-critic **Output:** Strategy memo + robustness plan + falsification tests

Workflow: 1. Read research spec, literature review, and data assessment if they exist 2. Read .claude/references/domain-profile.md for common identification strategies in the field 3. Dispatch Strategist to produce:

• Strategy memo: design choice, estimand, assumptions, comparison group
• Pseudo-code: implementation sketch
• Robustness plan: ordered list of checks with rationale
• Falsification tests: what SHOULD NOT show effects
• Referee objection anticipation: top 5 objections with responses

4. Dispatch strategist-critic to review through 4 phases:

• Phase 1: Claim identification (design, estimand, treatment, control)
• Phase 2: Core design validity (assumption checks, sanity checks)
• Phase 3: Inference soundness (clustering, multiple testing)
• Phase 4: Polish and completeness (robustness, citations)

5. If CRITICAL issues found, iterate (max 3 rounds per three-strikes) 6. Save memo to `quality_reports/strategy_memo_[topic].md` 7. Save review to `quality_reports/strategy_memo_[topic]_review.md`

`/strategize pap [spec]` — Pre-Analysis Plan

Draft a pre-analysis plan following AEA/OSF/EGAP standards.

**Input:** `$ARGUMENTS` — path to research spec file, a topic, or `interactive` for guided interview.

• If `$ARGUMENTS` includes a file path: read it (research spec from `/discover interview`)
• If `$ARGUMENTS` includes `interactive`: conduct the guided PAP interview (see below)
• Otherwise: treat as topic and draft with ASSUMED placeholders marked clearly

**Agents:** Strategist (in PAP mode), optionally strategist-critic **Output:** Pre-analysis plan document

Interactive PAP Interview (6-Question Guided Flow)

When invoked as `/strategize pap interactive`, ask these questions one at a time before drafting:

1. **What is the research question?** 2. **What is the study design?** (RCT / natural experiment / quasi-experimental / observational) 3. **What are the primary outcome variables?** (names, measurement, data source) 4. **What is the identification strategy?** (randomization mechanism / treatment assignment / source of variation) 5. **What subgroup analyses are pre-specified?** (with justification for each) 6. **What multiple testing concerns exist?** (number of primary outcomes, family-wise error rate plan)

After all 6 answers are collected, proceed to PAP drafting.

PAP Sections

Dispatch Strategist in PAP mode to produce all standard sections:

1. **Study overview** — research question, design, treatment, control 2. **Outcomes** — primary, secondary, mechanism variables with measurement details 3. **Estimating equations** — with full notation protocol 4. **Subgroup analyses** — pre-specified, with justification for each 5. **Multiple testing correction** — Bonferroni / Benjamini-Hochberg / Romano-Wolf (specify which and why) 6. **Power calculations** — MDE, baseline statistics, sample size, assumptions stated explicitly with sensitivity 7. **Sample and exclusion rules** — inclusion criteria, attrition handling, outlier treatment 8. **Data and analysis** — sources, software, randomization/assignment mechanism 9. **Timeline** — data collection, analysis, registration dates 10. **Deviations log** — empty template for tracking post-registration changes

Platform-Specific PAP Templates

Ask the user which registry platform they plan to use (if unclear from context):

**AEA RCT Registry:**

• Most structured format. All fields required.
• Must be registered before intervention begins.
• Strict section ordering: hypotheses → outcomes → analysis → power.
• Requires IRB information and funding sources.

**OSF (Open Science Framework):**

• More flexible format. Good for observational studies and natural experiments.
• Allows iterative updates with version history.
• Less rigid section structure — can adapt to study design.
• Supports pre-registration of observational/archival studies.

**EGAP (Evidence in Governance and Politics):**

• Development economics and political science focused.
• Additional governance and ethics questions required.
• Emphasizes pre-specification of heterogeneous treatment effects.
• Requires description of implementing partners and field conditions.

Observational Study PAP Adaptation

For observational, quasi-experimental, or natural experiment designs, adapt the PAP template:

• **Identification strategy replaces randomization** — describe the source of exogenous variation
• **Comparison group replaces control group** — define who is compared to whom and why
• **Identification assumption discussion** — explicitly state and defend each assumption
• **Placebo and falsification tests** — pre-specify what SHOULD NOT show effects
• **Robustness to specification choices** — pre-commit to bandwidth, functional form, sample restrictions
• **Treatment of endogeneity concerns** — document known threats and planned diagnostics

ASSUMED Placeholder Safety

**CRITICAL: Flag every ASSUMED item clearly. The researcher must review and approve before registration.**

When drafting a PAP from a topic (without a full research spec or interactive interview), many details will be assumed. For each