/ceos-trends

name: ceos-trends
description: Use when analyzing EOS health trends over time - Rock completion rates, scorecard consistency, checkup progression, and issue resolution patterns
file-access: [data/rocks/, data/scorecard/, data/checkups/, data/issues/, data/todos/, data/meetings/l10/]
tools-used: [Read, Glob]

ceos-trends

Longitudinal EOS health tracking - analyze how your organization is improving over time across all Six Key Components. While `ceos-dashboard` shows today's snapshot, `ceos-trends` answers the question every EOS coach asks: "Are we getting better?"

When to Use

• "How are we trending?" or "show our progress"
• "Are we improving?" or "EOS health over time"
• "Quarter comparison" or "compare Q1 to Q2"
• "Rock completion history" or "how have our rocks been?"
• "Scorecard trends" or "are our numbers improving?"
• "Show trends" or "progress report"
• Before quarterly planning or annual planning for historical context

Context

Finding the CEOS Repository

Search upward from the current directory for the `.ceos` marker file. This file marks the root of the CEOS repository.

If `.ceos` is not found, stop and tell the user: "Not in a CEOS repository. Clone your CEOS repo and run setup.sh first."

**Sync before use:** Once you find the CEOS root, run `git -C <ceos_root> pull --ff-only --quiet 2>/dev/null` to get the latest data from teammates. If it fails (conflict or offline), continue silently with local data.

Key Files

| File | Purpose | |------|---------| | `data/rocks/YYYY-QN/` | Rock files per quarter (status, owner, milestones) | | `data/scorecard/weeks/YYYY-WNN.md` | Weekly scorecard entries (metrics, on/off track) | | `data/scorecard/metrics.md` | Metric definitions (goals, thresholds) | | `data/checkups/YYYY-MM-DD.md` | Organizational Checkup results (component scores) | | `data/issues/open/` | Currently open issues (priority, created date) | | `data/issues/solved/` | Resolved issues (priority, created date, resolution) | | `data/todos/` | To-Do files (status, created, completed_on, source) | | `data/meetings/l10/YYYY-MM-DD.md` | L10 meeting notes (one per meeting) |

Design Principles

• **Read-only.** Trends never modifies any data files. It reads, calculates, and reports.
• **Graceful degradation.** Works with whatever data exists. One quarter of Rocks? Show that. No checkups yet? Skip that section with guidance. Never error on missing data.
• **Cross-skill coordination.** Each trend section suggests the relevant skill for taking action. Trends shows the trajectory; other skills change it.
• **Minimum data threshold.** For meaningful trends, at least 2 data points are needed (e.g., 2 quarters of Rocks, 2 checkups). With only 1 data point, show the baseline value and note: "More data needed for trend analysis."

Quarter and Week Calculations

• **Current quarter:** Jan-Mar = Q1, Apr-Jun = Q2, Jul-Sep = Q3, Oct-Dec = Q4. Format: `YYYY-QN`
• **Current ISO week:** Format: `YYYY-WNN`
• **Available quarters:** Scan `data/rocks/` subdirectory names to discover all quarters with data.
• **Trailing periods:** "Trailing 4 weeks" = most recent 4 weekly scorecard files. "Trailing 13 weeks" = most recent 13 (approximately one quarter).

Process

Mode: Overview (default)

Use when the user asks for a general trend summary. This is the default when no specific component is mentioned.

Step 1: Discover Available Data

Scan the CEOS data directories to determine what historical data exists:

1. **Quarters with Rocks:** List subdirectories in `data/rocks/` matching `YYYY-QN` pattern. Sort chronologically. 2. **Scorecard weeks:** List files in `data/scorecard/weeks/` matching `YYYY-WNN.md`. Sort chronologically. 3. **Checkups:** List files in `data/checkups/` matching `YYYY-MM-DD.md`. Sort by date. 4. **Issues:** Count files in `data/issues/open/` and `data/issues/solved/`. 5. **To-Dos:** List files in `data/todos/`. Parse `created` and `completed_on` dates. 6. **L10 meetings:** List files in `data/meetings/l10/` matching `YYYY-MM-DD.md`.

If no historical data exists at all, show:

No EOS data found. Run your first L10, set some Rocks, or log a scorecard to start building history.

Step 2: Rock Completion Trend

For each quarter directory in `data/rocks/`:

1. Read all `.md` files in the directory. 2. Parse YAML frontmatter for `status` field. 3. Count: `complete`, `on_track`, `off_track`, `dropped`, total. 4. Calculate completion rate: `complete / (total - dropped)` as percentage.

For the current quarter (not yet ended), mark as "in progress" and show current status breakdown instead of a final completion rate.

Display:

Rock Completion
  2025-Q3: 4/6 complete (67%)
  2025-Q4: 5/7 complete (71%) ↑
  2026-Q1: 2 on track, 1 off track, 1 complete of 6 (in progress)

Trend arrows (compare each quarter to the previous):

• `↑` = completion rate improved
• `→` = unchanged (within 5 percentage points)
• `↓` = completion rate declined

**If only one quarter exists:** Show the data without trend arrows. Add: "Track Rocks across multiple quarters to see completion trends."

**If no Rock directories exist:**

Rock Completion: No Rock data yet. Run `ceos-rocks` to set quarterly priorities.

Step 3: Scorecard Consistency

Analyze scorecard data across available weeks:

1. Read all weekly scorecard files from `data/scorecard/weeks/`. 2. For each file, parse the metrics table from the markdown body. 3. For each metric row, determine if it was on-track or off-track based on the status or value vs. threshold. 4. Calculate per-week: total metrics, on-track count, on-track percentage.

Calculate rolling averages:

• **Trailing 4 weeks:** Average on-track percentage over the last 4 weeks.
• **Prior 4 weeks:** Average on-track percentage for the 4 weeks before that.
• **Trailing 13 weeks:** Average on-track percentage over the last 13 weeks (quarter).

Also calculate logging consistency:

• Count weeks with scorecard entries vs