/prediction-markets

name: prediction-markets
description: "Use when the user asks about event probabilities, prediction market odds, what people are betting on, Polymarket/Kalshi prices, sports markets — or about the things you CANNOT get from a public API: historical price/volume/orderbook time series, smart-money positioning, whale leaderboards, wallet P&L, wallet identity and on-chain clustering, and canonical IDs matching the same question across venues. 55 endpoints over Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Opinion, Predict.Fun, Binance Futures, sports, and the UMA oracle. Pay-per-call in USDC via x402 — no Predexon account, no API key."
triggers:
  - "polymarket"
  - "kalshi"
  - "limitless"
  - "predict.fun"
  - "predexon"
  - "prediction market"
  - "event probability"
  - "betting odds"
  - "implied probability"
  - "what are people betting on"
  - "election odds"
  - "crypto market odds"
  - "binance futures"
  - "yes/no market"
  - "sports markets"
  - "smart money"
  - "smart wallet"
  - "whale"
  - "top traders"
  - "top holders"
  - "who is winning"
  - "best traders"
  - "copy trade"
  - "leaderboard"
  - "wallet pnl"
  - "wallet profit"
  - "trader performance"
  - "wallet identity"
  - "wallet cluster"
  - "price history"
  - "candles"
  - "candlestick"
  - "ohlcv"
  - "orderbook"
  - "order book history"
  - "open interest"
  - "volume history"
  - "trade history"
  - "cross-venue markets"
  - "arbitrage"
  - "uma oracle"

Prediction Markets (Predexon)

55 endpoints across Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Opinion, Predict.Fun, Binance Futures, sports, and the UMA oracle — one x402 gateway, no Predexon account or API key.

**What is worth paying for.** Current market lists are free from public APIs. These are not, and cannot be backfilled after the fact:

• **History** — candlesticks, orderbook snapshots, volume charts, open interest, trade history. Built from continuous ingestion; nobody can reconstruct it retroactively.
• **Smart money** — leaderboards, cohort stats, top holders, which wallets are positioned where, and which markets high-performing wallets just entered.
• **Wallet intelligence** — profiles, P&L time series, identity metadata, and on-chain clustering (find the other wallets behind one address).
• **Cross-venue canonical IDs** — one question, matched across five venues. The basis for arbitrage and consensus.

How to Call from MCP

One tool, three params. Method auto-routes: POST when `body` is set, GET otherwise.

blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/events", params: { limit: "10" } })

blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/candlesticks/0xCONDITION_ID", params: { interval: "1440" } })

blockrun_markets({ path: "polymarket/wallet/identities", body: {
  addresses: ["0xabc...", "0xdef..."]
}})

Paths are relative — no `/api/v1/pm/` prefix. Use `agent_id` to bill a child agent's budget.

Paid calls can run in parallel **on Base**: each EIP-3009 authorization carries its own random nonce, so concurrent calls from one wallet cannot collide. The Solana payload has no nonce field — distinctness comes from the SDK (`@blockrun/llm` >= 3.8.4), so keep that floor if you fan out on Solana.

Current parameter contracts that prevent paid 4xx responses:

• Discover with `markets/search` (its search term is `q`), then resolve the

selected market with `polymarket/markets/keyset` + `condition_id`.

• On `polymarket/markets{,/keyset}` the free-text filter is `search`, **not**

`q`. Use `status:"open"` rather than Gamma's `active`/`closed`, and `sort` rather than `order`/`ascending`. `end_after`/`end_before` are supported (Unix seconds).

• Candlestick `interval` is integer minutes (`1440`, not `1h`) and is

**optional** — the server has a default. Which intervals a market can serve varies: `1440` may work where `60` returns a paid 400. Optional `start_time`/`end_time` are Unix seconds.

• `polymarket/orderbooks` requires `token_id`, `start_time`, and `end_time`; the

times are Unix milliseconds.

• Smart-money needs a smart-wallet **criterion**: `min_trades`, `min_volume`,

`min_roi`, `min_realized_pnl`, `min_total_pnl`, `min_win_rate`, or `min_profit_factor`. `window` only scopes the time range and is **not** sufficient alone (verified: window-only returns a paid 400). Use `{ window: "30d", min_trades: "100" }`; narrower cohorts are fine.

• `markets/listings` is retired upstream (410 Gone) — the MCP blocks it before payment. The rest of the

canonical layer went with it on 2026-08-04: bare `markets`, `outcomes/{predexon_id}`, `matching-markets` and `matching-markets/pairs` all return **404 Unknown Predexon endpoint before payment** (verified live 2026-09-08). Only `markets/search` survived. No live `/v1/pm` route accepts a `league` param.

Two Pricing Tiers

| Tier | Price | What | |---|---|---| | **All endpoints** | $0.0085 on Base ($0.0075 + the $0.001 network fee; Solana quotes $0.0075) | Market data, events, history, candles, orderbooks, trades, leaderboard, UMA, wallet analytics, smart money, identity + clustering, cross-venue search, Binance (`sports/*` is degraded upstream — see below; the gateway releases the payment on the upstream 500) |

Pass-through pricing, 0% BlockRun margin — settles straight to Predexon's Base treasury.

Quick Decision Table — "User asks about X"

| User wants… | path | Tier | |---|---|---| | **Same question across venues / search every venue at once** | `markets/search` (`q`) | 2 | | Active Polymarket events | `polymarket/events` | 1 | | Polymarket markets | `polymarket/markets` | 1 | | Large result sets (stable paging) | `polymarket/markets/keyset` | 1 | | Crypto up/down markets | `polymarket/crypto-updown` | 1 | | Current/historical price of a token | `polymarket/market-price/{token_id}` | 1 | | **Price history (OHLCV)** | `polymarket/candlesticks/{condition_id}` | 1 | | **OHLCV for one outcome** | `polymarket/candlesticks/token/{token_id}` | 1 | | **Volume over time (YES/NO split)** | `polymarket/volume-chart/{condi