/research
Research prediction markets - base rates, resolution rules, historical data
$ npx -y skills add alsk1992/CloddsBot --skill research --agent claude-codeHow it fires
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- Fires itselfAuto-invocation. Claude auto-loads it when your prompt matches the work.Auto-invocation is when the right skill fires by itself at the right moment, driven by a FLOW.md router and a hook, instead of you invoking it by name. It is the difference between a skill being installed and a skill actually getting used.Read the full definition ā
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/research
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Research prediction markets - base rates, resolution rules, historical data
SKILL.md
research.SKILL.mdname: research
description: "Research prediction markets - base rates, resolution rules, historical data"
emoji: "š¬"
Research Skill
Help users research markets with base rates, resolution criteria, and historical analogies.
Commands
Base Rate Lookup
/baserate incumbent senators losing
/baserate fed rate cuts when inflation below 3%
/baserate supreme court overturning precedent
Resolution Rules
/resolution [market-id]
Historical Analogs
/history similar to "Trump 2028"
Research Areas
Political Markets
- Incumbent win rates by office type
- Primary prediction accuracy
- Polling vs outcome correlations
- Electoral college patterns
Economic Markets
- Fed rate decision patterns
- Recession indicator accuracy
- Inflation forecast track records
- Employment report surprises
Sports/Events
- Historical upset frequencies
- Weather event base rates
- Award show prediction accuracy
Examples
User: "What's the base rate for Senate incumbents losing?" ā Historical analysis: 8.2% since 1980 ā Key factors: approval rating, scandals, wave elections
User: "How does the market usually resolve for Fed meetings?" ā Explain FOMC resolution criteria ā Show historical price action around announcements
User: "Has a market like this been wrong before?" ā Find similar historical markets ā Show when market consensus missed
Output Format
š¬ BASE RATE ANALYSIS
Query: Senate incumbent losing reelection
Historical Rate: 8.2% (47/572 since 1980)
Key Factors:
ā¢ Approval < 45%: 23% lose
ā¢ Major scandal: 31% lose
ā¢ Wave election (opposite party): 15% lose
ā¢ First-term incumbent: 12% lose
Relevant Markets:
ā¢ Ted Cruz 2024: 52Ā¢ (current)
ā¢ Jon Tester 2024: 38Ā¢ (current)
Sources: FEC data, Cook Political Report
Read more
name: research description: "Research prediction markets - base rates, resolution rules, historical data" emoji: "š¬"
Research Skill
Help users research markets with base rates, resolution criteria, and historical analogies.
Commands
Base Rate Lookup
/baserate incumbent senators losing /baserate fed rate cuts when inflation below 3% /baserate supreme court overturning precedent
Resolution Rules
/resolution [market-id]
Historical Analogs
/history similar to "Trump 2028"
Research Areas
Political Markets
- Incumbent win rates by office type
- Primary prediction accuracy
- Polling vs outcome correlations
- Electoral college patterns
Economic Markets
- Fed rate decision patterns
- Recession indicator accuracy
- Inflation forecast track records
- Employment report surprises
Sports/Events
- Historical upset frequencies
- Weather event base rates
- Award show prediction accuracy
Examples
User: "What's the base rate for Senate incumbents losing?" ā Historical analysis: 8.2% since 1980 ā Key factors: approval rating, scandals, wave elections
User: "How does the market usually resolve for Fed meetings?" ā Explain FOMC resolution criteria ā Show historical price action around announcements
User: "Has a market like this been wrong before?" ā Find similar historical markets ā Show when market consensus missed
Output Format
š¬ BASE RATE ANALYSIS Query: Senate incumbent losing reelection Historical Rate: 8.2% (47/572 since 1980) Key Factors: ā¢ Approval < 45%: 23% lose ā¢ Major scandal: 31% lose ā¢ Wave election (opposite party): 15% lose ā¢ First-term incumbent: 12% lose Relevant Markets: ā¢ Ted Cruz 2024: 52Ā¢ (current) ā¢ Jon Tester 2024: 38Ā¢ (current) Sources: FEC data, Cook Political Report
Open Source AI trading agent that operates autonomously across 1000+ markets - Polymarket, Kalshi, Binance, Hyperliquid, Solana DEXs, 5 EVM chains. Scans for edge, executes instantly, manages risk while you sleep. Agent commerce protocol for machine-to-machine payments. Self-hosted. Built on Claude.
Repo: alsk1992/CloddsBot
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