Automation
Skill
/research
Research prediction markets - base rates, resolution rules, historical data
Claude Code
$ npx -y skills add alsk1992/CloddsBot --skill research --agent claude-code
Codex
$ npx skills add alsk1992/CloddsBot --skill research -a codex -y
Cursor
$ npx skills add alsk1992/CloddsBot --skill research -a cursor -y
Gemini CLI
$ npx skills add alsk1992/CloddsBot --skill research -a gemini-cli -y
GitHub Copilot
$ npx skills add alsk1992/CloddsBot --skill research -a github-copilot -y
OpenCode
$ npx skills add alsk1992/CloddsBot --skill research -a opencode -y
Windsurf
$ npx skills add alsk1992/CloddsBot --skill research -a windsurf -y
SKILL.md
research.SKILL.mdname: research
description: "Research prediction markets - base rates, resolution rules, historical data"
emoji: "🔬"
Research Skill
Help users research markets with base rates, resolution criteria, and historical analogies.
Commands
Base Rate Lookup
/baserate incumbent senators losing
/baserate fed rate cuts when inflation below 3%
/baserate supreme court overturning precedent
Resolution Rules
/resolution [market-id]
Historical Analogs
/history similar to "Trump 2028"
Research Areas
Political Markets
- Incumbent win rates by office type
- Primary prediction accuracy
- Polling vs outcome correlations
- Electoral college patterns
Economic Markets
- Fed rate decision patterns
- Recession indicator accuracy
- Inflation forecast track records
- Employment report surprises
Sports/Events
- Historical upset frequencies
- Weather event base rates
- Award show prediction accuracy
Examples
User: "What's the base rate for Senate incumbents losing?" → Historical analysis: 8.2% since 1980 → Key factors: approval rating, scandals, wave elections
User: "How does the market usually resolve for Fed meetings?" → Explain FOMC resolution criteria → Show historical price action around announcements
User: "Has a market like this been wrong before?" → Find similar historical markets → Show when market consensus missed
Output Format
🔬 BASE RATE ANALYSIS
Query: Senate incumbent losing reelection
Historical Rate: 8.2% (47/572 since 1980)
Key Factors:
• Approval < 45%: 23% lose
• Major scandal: 31% lose
• Wave election (opposite party): 15% lose
• First-term incumbent: 12% lose
Relevant Markets:
• Ted Cruz 2024: 52¢ (current)
• Jon Tester 2024: 38¢ (current)
Sources: FEC data, Cook Political Report
Read more
name: research description: "Research prediction markets - base rates, resolution rules, historical data" emoji: "🔬"
Research Skill
Help users research markets with base rates, resolution criteria, and historical analogies.
Commands
Base Rate Lookup
/baserate incumbent senators losing /baserate fed rate cuts when inflation below 3% /baserate supreme court overturning precedent
Resolution Rules
/resolution [market-id]
Historical Analogs
/history similar to "Trump 2028"
Research Areas
Political Markets
- Incumbent win rates by office type
- Primary prediction accuracy
- Polling vs outcome correlations
- Electoral college patterns
Economic Markets
- Fed rate decision patterns
- Recession indicator accuracy
- Inflation forecast track records
- Employment report surprises
Sports/Events
- Historical upset frequencies
- Weather event base rates
- Award show prediction accuracy
Examples
User: "What's the base rate for Senate incumbents losing?" → Historical analysis: 8.2% since 1980 → Key factors: approval rating, scandals, wave elections
User: "How does the market usually resolve for Fed meetings?" → Explain FOMC resolution criteria → Show historical price action around announcements
User: "Has a market like this been wrong before?" → Find similar historical markets → Show when market consensus missed
Output Format
🔬 BASE RATE ANALYSIS Query: Senate incumbent losing reelection Historical Rate: 8.2% (47/572 since 1980) Key Factors: • Approval < 45%: 23% lose • Major scandal: 31% lose • Wave election (opposite party): 15% lose • First-term incumbent: 12% lose Relevant Markets: • Ted Cruz 2024: 52¢ (current) • Jon Tester 2024: 38¢ (current) Sources: FEC data, Cook Political Report
Stats
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Stars
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Maintenance
TypeScript
Language
MIT
License
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Open Source AI trading agent that operates autonomously across 1000+ markets - Polymarket, Kalshi, Binance, Hyperliquid, Solana DEXs, 5 EVM chains. Scans for edge, executes instantly, manages risk while you sleep. Agent commerce protocol for machine-to-machine payments. Self-hosted. Built on Claude.
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Questions about research.
- Which coding agents can use research?
- research installs in Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, Gemini CLI, GitHub Copilot, OpenCode and Windsurf with the skills CLI, using each agent's flag shown on this page. Flowy's auto-invocation, which fires a skill when your prompt matches, runs in Claude Code only.