/opportunity

name: opportunity
description: "Find and execute cross-platform arbitrage opportunities across prediction markets"
emoji: "🎯"
gates:
  envs:
    anyOf:
      - POLY_API_KEY
      - KALSHI_API_KEY

Opportunity Finder - Complete API Reference

Discover and execute cross-platform arbitrage opportunities across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair, Smarkets, Manifold, Metaculus, PredictIt, and Drift.

Based on [arXiv:2508.03474](https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.03474) which found **$40M+ in realized arbitrage** on Polymarket.

Opportunity Types

| Type | Description | Example | |------|-------------|---------| | **Internal** | YES + NO < $1 on same platform | Buy both for guaranteed profit | | **Cross-Platform** | Same market priced differently | Buy low on A, sell high on B | | **Combinatorial** | Logical violations (P(A) > P(B) when A implies B) | Trump > Republican | | **Edge** | Market vs external model (538, polls) | Market 45%, model 52% |

---

Chat Commands

Scanning

/opportunities scan                         # Scan all platforms for opportunities
/opportunities scan "trump"                 # Scan with keyword filter
/opportunities scan --min-edge 2            # Min 2% edge
/opportunities scan --min-liquidity 1000    # Min $1000 liquidity

/opportunities active                       # View active opportunities
/opportunities active --sort edge           # Sort by edge size
/opportunities active --sort liquidity      # Sort by liquidity

Real-Time Monitoring

/opportunities realtime start               # Start continuous scanning
/opportunities realtime stop                # Stop scanning
/opportunities realtime status              # Check monitoring status
/opportunities realtime config --interval 30 # Set scan interval (seconds)

Market Linking

/opportunities link <market-a> <market-b>   # Manually link equivalent markets
/opportunities unlink <market-a> <market-b> # Remove link
/opportunities links                        # View all linked markets
/opportunities auto-match                   # Run auto-matching algorithm

Execution

/opportunities execute <id>                 # Execute an opportunity
/opportunities execute <id> --size 100      # Execute with $100 size
/opportunities mark-taken <id>              # Mark as taken (manual)
/opportunities record-outcome <id> <pnl>    # Record P&L outcome

Analytics

/opportunities stats                        # Performance statistics
/opportunities stats --period 7d            # Last 7 days
/opportunities history                      # Past opportunities
/opportunities by-platform                  # Stats by platform pair
/opportunities by-type                      # Stats by opportunity type

Risk Modeling

/opportunities risk <id>                    # Model execution risk
/opportunities estimate <id>                # Estimate execution costs
/opportunities kelly <id>                   # Calculate Kelly fraction

---

TypeScript API Reference

Create Opportunity Finder

import { createOpportunityFinder } from 'clodds/opportunity';

const finder = createOpportunityFinder({
  platforms: ['polymarket', 'kalshi', 'betfair', 'manifold'],

  // Filtering
  minEdge: 0.5,           // 0.5% minimum edge
  minLiquidity: 500,      // $500 minimum liquidity
  minConfidence: 0.7,     // 70% match confidence

  // Real-time
  enableRealtime: true,
  scanIntervalMs: 30000,  // 30 second intervals

  // Credentials
  polymarket: { apiKey, apiSecret, passphrase, privateKey },
  kalshi: { apiKey, privateKey },
});

Scan for Opportunities

// One-time scan
const opportunities = await finder.scan({
  query: 'election',      // Optional keyword
  minEdge: 1,             // 1% minimum
  minLiquidity: 1000,     // $1000 minimum
  platforms: ['polymarket', 'kalshi'],
});

for (const opp of opportunities) {
  console.log(`${opp.type}: ${opp.description}`);
  console.log(`  Edge: ${opp.edge.toFixed(2)}%`);
  console.log(`  Liquidity: $${opp.liquidity.toLocaleString()}`);
  console.log(`  Confidence: ${(opp.confidence * 100).toFixed(0)}%`);
  console.log(`  Score: ${opp.score}/100`);
  console.log(`  Platforms: ${opp.platforms.join(' ↔ ')}`);
}

Real-Time Monitoring

// Start real-time scanning
await finder.startRealtime();

// Event handlers
finder.on('opportunity', (opp) => {
  console.log(`🎯 New opportunity: ${opp.description}`);
  console.log(`   Edge: ${opp.edge.toFixed(2)}%`);
});

finder.on('opportunityExpired', (opp) => {
  console.log(`❌ Opportunity expired: ${opp.id}`);
});

finder.on('opportunityUpdated', (opp) => {
  console.log(`📊 Updated: ${opp.id} - Edge now ${opp.edge.toFixed(2)}%`);
});

// Get active opportunities
const active = await finder.getActive();

// Stop monitoring
await finder.stopRealtime();

Market Linking

// Manually link equivalent markets
await finder.linkMarkets(
  { platform: 'polymarket', id: 'market-123' },
  { platform: 'kalshi', id: 'TRUMP-WIN' }
);

// Auto-match using semantic similarity
const matches = await finder.autoMatchMarkets({
  minSimilarity: 0.85,
  platforms: ['polymarket', 'kalshi'],
});

console.log(`Found ${matches.length} potential matches`);
for (const match of matches) {
  console.log(`${match.marketA.question}`);
  console.log(`  ↔ ${match.marketB.question}`);
  console.log(`  Similarity: ${(match.similarity * 100).toFixed(0)}%`);
}

// Get all links
const links = await finder.getLinks();

Execute Opportunity

// Execute an opportunity
const result = await finder.execute(opportunityId, {
  size: 100,              // $100 position
  maxSlippage: 0.5,       // 0.5% max slippage
  useProtectedOrders: true,
});

console.log(`Executed: ${result.status}`);
console.log(`  Filled: $${result.filledSize}`);
console.log(`  Avg price: ${result.avgPrice}`);
console.log(`  Fees: $${result.fees}`);

// Mark as taken manually
await find