/edge

name: edge
description: "Find mispriced markets by comparing to external models and data sources"
emoji: "🎯"

Edge Detection Skill

Compare prediction market prices to external models, polls, and data sources to find potential edge.

Commands

Scan for Edge

/edge
/edge politics
/edge fed

Compare Specific Market

/edge compare "Trump 2028" 538 betting-odds
/edge compare "BTC above 100k" polymarket kalshi

Kelly Calculator

/edge kelly 0.6 2.0 1000
# probability, decimal odds, bankroll
/edge kelly 55 2.5
# 55% prob, 2.5 odds, $100 default bankroll

Data Sources

Political

• **538/Silver Bulletin** - Election models
• **RealClearPolitics** - Polling averages
• **Betting Odds** - Pinnacle, offshore books
• **PredictIt** - Alternative market prices

Economic

• **CME FedWatch** - Rate probabilities
• **Bloomberg Consensus** - Economist forecasts
• **Treasury Yields** - Implied expectations

Sports

• **Vegas Lines** - Sharp money indicators
• **ESPN FPI** - Power rankings
• **Historical Models** - ELO ratings

Examples

User: "Find me some edge" → Scan markets where price differs >10% from models → Return top opportunities with confidence levels

User: "Is the Fed market fairly priced?" → Compare to CME FedWatch probabilities → Show discrepancy and confidence

User: "What size should I bet if I think Trump is 55% to win but market says 45%?" → Kelly criterion: (0.55 * 0.55 - 0.45 * 0.45) / 0.55 = 18% of bankroll

Output Format

🎯 EDGE DETECTED

Market: "Fed cuts rates in March 2026"
Platform: Polymarket

Current Price: 23¢

External Sources:
• CME FedWatch: 41%
• Bloomberg Consensus: 38%
• Historical base rate: 35%

Estimated Fair Value: 38¢
Edge: +15¢ (+65%)
Confidence: Medium

Kelly Suggestion:
• Conservative (half-Kelly): 8% of bankroll
• Aggressive (full-Kelly): 16% of bankroll