/edge
Find mispriced markets by comparing to external models and data sources
$ npx -y skills add alsk1992/CloddsBot --skill edge --agent claude-codeHow it fires
How this skill gets triggered: by you, by Claude, or both.
- Fires itselfAuto-invocation. Claude auto-loads it when your prompt matches the work.Auto-invocation is when the right skill fires by itself at the right moment, driven by a FLOW.md router and a hook, instead of you invoking it by name. It is the difference between a skill being installed and a skill actually getting used.Read the full definition ā
- You can call itInvoke it directly when you want it.
- Slash command
/edge
Context preview
The summary Claude sees to decide when to auto-load this skill.
Find mispriced markets by comparing to external models and data sources
SKILL.md
edge.SKILL.mdname: edge
description: "Find mispriced markets by comparing to external models and data sources"
emoji: "šÆ"
Edge Detection Skill
Compare prediction market prices to external models, polls, and data sources to find potential edge.
Commands
Scan for Edge
/edge
/edge politics
/edge fed
Compare Specific Market
/edge compare "Trump 2028" 538 betting-odds
/edge compare "BTC above 100k" polymarket kalshi
Kelly Calculator
/edge kelly 0.6 2.0 1000
# probability, decimal odds, bankroll
/edge kelly 55 2.5
# 55% prob, 2.5 odds, $100 default bankroll
Data Sources
Political
- **538/Silver Bulletin** - Election models
- **RealClearPolitics** - Polling averages
- **Betting Odds** - Pinnacle, offshore books
- **PredictIt** - Alternative market prices
Economic
- **CME FedWatch** - Rate probabilities
- **Bloomberg Consensus** - Economist forecasts
- **Treasury Yields** - Implied expectations
Sports
- **Vegas Lines** - Sharp money indicators
- **ESPN FPI** - Power rankings
- **Historical Models** - ELO ratings
Examples
User: "Find me some edge" ā Scan markets where price differs >10% from models ā Return top opportunities with confidence levels
User: "Is the Fed market fairly priced?" ā Compare to CME FedWatch probabilities ā Show discrepancy and confidence
User: "What size should I bet if I think Trump is 55% to win but market says 45%?" ā Kelly criterion: (0.55 * 0.55 - 0.45 * 0.45) / 0.55 = 18% of bankroll
Output Format
šÆ EDGE DETECTED
Market: "Fed cuts rates in March 2026"
Platform: Polymarket
Current Price: 23Ā¢
External Sources:
ā¢ CME FedWatch: 41%
ā¢ Bloomberg Consensus: 38%
ā¢ Historical base rate: 35%
Estimated Fair Value: 38Ā¢
Edge: +15Ā¢ (+65%)
Confidence: Medium
Kelly Suggestion:
ā¢ Conservative (half-Kelly): 8% of bankroll
ā¢ Aggressive (full-Kelly): 16% of bankroll
Read more
name: edge description: "Find mispriced markets by comparing to external models and data sources" emoji: "šÆ"
Edge Detection Skill
Compare prediction market prices to external models, polls, and data sources to find potential edge.
Commands
Scan for Edge
/edge /edge politics /edge fed
Compare Specific Market
/edge compare "Trump 2028" 538 betting-odds /edge compare "BTC above 100k" polymarket kalshi
Kelly Calculator
/edge kelly 0.6 2.0 1000 # probability, decimal odds, bankroll /edge kelly 55 2.5 # 55% prob, 2.5 odds, $100 default bankroll
Data Sources
Political
- **538/Silver Bulletin** - Election models
- **RealClearPolitics** - Polling averages
- **Betting Odds** - Pinnacle, offshore books
- **PredictIt** - Alternative market prices
Economic
- **CME FedWatch** - Rate probabilities
- **Bloomberg Consensus** - Economist forecasts
- **Treasury Yields** - Implied expectations
Sports
- **Vegas Lines** - Sharp money indicators
- **ESPN FPI** - Power rankings
- **Historical Models** - ELO ratings
Examples
User: "Find me some edge" ā Scan markets where price differs >10% from models ā Return top opportunities with confidence levels
User: "Is the Fed market fairly priced?" ā Compare to CME FedWatch probabilities ā Show discrepancy and confidence
User: "What size should I bet if I think Trump is 55% to win but market says 45%?" ā Kelly criterion: (0.55 * 0.55 - 0.45 * 0.45) / 0.55 = 18% of bankroll
Output Format
šÆ EDGE DETECTED Market: "Fed cuts rates in March 2026" Platform: Polymarket Current Price: 23Ā¢ External Sources: ā¢ CME FedWatch: 41% ā¢ Bloomberg Consensus: 38% ā¢ Historical base rate: 35% Estimated Fair Value: 38Ā¢ Edge: +15Ā¢ (+65%) Confidence: Medium Kelly Suggestion: ā¢ Conservative (half-Kelly): 8% of bankroll ā¢ Aggressive (full-Kelly): 16% of bankroll
Open Source AI trading agent that operates autonomously across 1000+ markets - Polymarket, Kalshi, Binance, Hyperliquid, Solana DEXs, 5 EVM chains. Scans for edge, executes instantly, manages risk while you sleep. Agent commerce protocol for machine-to-machine payments. Self-hosted. Built on Claude.
Repo: alsk1992/CloddsBot
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