/financial-projections

description: "Create detailed 3-5 year financial model with revenue, costs, cash flow, and scenarios"
allowed-tools:
  ["Read", "Write", "Edit", "Glob", "Grep", "Bash", "WebSearch", "WebFetch"]

Financial Projections

Create a comprehensive 3-5 year financial model with revenue projections, cost structure, headcount planning, cash flow analysis, and three-scenario modeling (conservative, base, optimistic) for startup financial planning and fundraising.

What This Command Does

This command builds a complete financial model including:

1. Cohort-based revenue projections 2. Detailed cost structure (COGS, S&M, R&D, G&A) 3. Headcount planning by role 4. Monthly cash flow analysis 5. Key metrics (CAC, LTV, burn rate, runway) 6. Three-scenario analysis

Instructions for Claude

When this command is invoked, follow these steps:

Step 1: Gather Model Inputs

Ask the user for essential information:

**Business Model:**

• Revenue model (SaaS, marketplace, transaction, etc.)
• Pricing structure (tiers, average price)
• Target customer segments

**Starting Point:**

• Current MRR/ARR (if any)
• Current customer count
• Current team size
• Current cash balance

**Growth Assumptions:**

• Expected monthly customer acquisition
• Customer retention/churn rate
• Average contract value (ACV)
• Sales cycle length

**Cost Assumptions:**

• Gross margin or COGS %
• S&M budget or CAC target
• Current burn rate (if applicable)

**Funding:**

• Planned fundraising (amount, timing)
• Pre/post-money valuation

Step 2: Activate startup-financial-modeling Skill

The startup-financial-modeling skill provides frameworks. Reference it for:

• Revenue modeling approaches
• Cost structure templates
• Headcount planning guidance
• Scenario analysis methods

Step 3: Build Revenue Model

**Use Cohort-Based Approach:**

For each month, track:

1. New customers acquired 2. Existing customers retained (apply churn) 3. Revenue per cohort (customers × ARPU) 4. Expansion revenue (upsells)

**Formula:**

MRR (Month N) = Σ across all cohorts:
  (Cohort Size × Retention Rate × ARPU) + Expansion

**Project:**

• Monthly detail for Year 1-2
• Quarterly detail for Year 3
• Annual for Years 4-5

Step 4: Model Cost Structure

Break down operating expenses:

**1. Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)**

• Hosting/infrastructure (% of revenue or fixed)
• Payment processing (% of revenue)
• Variable customer support
• Third-party services

Target gross margin:

• SaaS: 75-85%
• Marketplace: 60-70%
• E-commerce: 40-60%

**2. Sales & Marketing (S&M)**

• Sales team compensation
• Marketing programs
• Tools and software
• Target: 40-60% of revenue (early stage)

**3. Research & Development (R&D)**

• Engineering team
• Product management
• Design
• Target: 30-40% of revenue

**4. General & Administrative (G&A)**

• Executive team
• Finance, legal, HR
• Office and facilities
• Target: 15-25% of revenue

Step 5: Plan Headcount

Create role-by-role hiring plan:

**Reference team-composition-analysis skill for:**

• Roles by stage
• Compensation benchmarks
• Hiring velocity assumptions

**For each role:**

• Title and department
• Start date (month/quarter)
• Base salary
• Fully-loaded cost (salary × 1.3-1.4)
• Equity grant

**Track departmental ratios:**

• Engineering: 40-50% of team
• Sales & Marketing: 25-35%
• G&A: 10-15%
• Product/CS: 10-15%

Step 6: Calculate Cash Flow

Monthly cash flow projection:

Beginning Cash Balance
+ Cash Collected (revenue, consider payment terms)
- Operating Expenses
- CapEx
= Ending Cash Balance

Monthly Burn = Revenue - Expenses (if negative)
Runway = Cash Balance / Monthly Burn Rate

**Include Funding Events:**

• Timing of raises
• Amount raised
• Use of proceeds
• Impact on cash balance

Step 7: Compute Key Metrics

Calculate monthly/quarterly:

**Unit Economics:**

• CAC (S&M spend / new customers)
• LTV (ARPU × margin% / churn rate)
• LTV:CAC ratio (target > 3.0)
• CAC payback period (target < 18 months)

**Efficiency Metrics:**

• Burn multiple (net burn / net new ARR) - target < 2.0
• Magic number (net new ARR / S&M spend) - target > 0.5
• Rule of 40 (growth% + margin%) - target > 40%

**Cash Metrics:**

• Monthly burn rate
• Runway in months
• Cash efficiency

Step 8: Create Three Scenarios

Build conservative, base, and optimistic projections:

**Conservative (P10):**

• New customers: -30% vs. base
• Churn: +20% vs. base
• Pricing: -15% vs. base
• CAC: +25% vs. base

**Base (P50):**

• Most likely assumptions
• Primary planning scenario

**Optimistic (P90):**

• New customers: +30% vs. base
• Churn: -20% vs. base
• Pricing: +15% vs. base
• CAC: -25% vs. base

Step 9: Generate Financial Model Report

Create comprehensive markdown report with tables:

**Section 1: Executive Summary**

• 3-5 year financial snapshot
• Key metrics at scale
• Funding requirements

**Section 2: Model Assumptions**

• Revenue model and pricing
• Growth assumptions
• Cost structure assumptions
• Headcount plan summary

**Section 3: Revenue Projections** Monthly/quarterly tables showing:

| Month | New Customers | Total Customers | MRR | ARR | Growth % |
|-------|---------------|-----------------|-----|-----|----------|

**Section 4: Cost Breakdown**

| Department | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | % Revenue |
|------------|--------|--------|--------|-----------|
| COGS       | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
| S&M        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
| R&D        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
| G&A        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |

**Section 5: Headcount Plan**

| Department | Current | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|
| Engineering| X       | Y      | Z      | W      |

**Section 6: Cash Flow Analysis**

| Quarter | Revenue | Expenses | Net Burn | Cash Balance | Runway |
|---------|---------|----------|----------|--------------|--------|

**Section 7: Key