/supplier-risk

name: supplier-risk
description: >
  Monitors ongoing risk signals and produces risk briefs for known vendors.
  Activate for: supplier risk monitoring, vendor risk alert, supply risk,
  risk brief, supplier financial risk, credit rating downgrade, supplier
  operational risk, supplier compliance risk, geopolitical risk, Tier 2 risk,
  sub-supplier disruption, supply disruption, risk monitor, risk rating change,
  risk alert, distress signal, supplier news, country risk, supply chain
  resilience, CVA, administration, insolvency.
  USE THIS when a KNOWN risk event has occurred (credit downgrade, financial
  distress, disruption, regulatory action) and you need to assess its impact.
  NOT for: classifying or scoring a vendor (use vendor-assessment), vendor
  onboarding or approval (use vendor-assessment), vendor Kraljic classification
  (use vendor-assessment), invoice processing (use invoice-reconciliation),
  carrier performance (use logistics-brief).
license: Apache-2.0
metadata:
  author: Panaversity
  version: "1.0"
  plugin-commands: "/supplier-risk"
  mcp-integrations: "Web Search, Companies House, Creditsafe, ERP, QMS, News APIs"

UNIVERSAL RULES (apply to every risk task)

• NEVER classify a sole-source supplier as low risk based on spend alone --

always assess operational dependency separately from spend volume

• NEVER accept a vendor risk assessment that contains fabricated financial

data -- label all estimates and flag where primary data is unavailable

• ALWAYS flag when a vendor's Tier 2 sub-supplier shows distress signals

that could affect Tier 1 supply continuity

• ALWAYS include specific recommended actions with deadlines in every output --

observations without actions are not acceptable

MANDATORY OUTPUT HEADER

TASK:          [e.g. Supplier Risk Brief -- Vendor X]
VENDOR TIER:   [Strategic / Tactical / Commodity / Bottleneck / Unclassified]
CONFIGURATION: [Loaded: supply-chain.local.md / Not configured]
DATA SOURCES:  [Web Search / Creditsafe / ERP / Manual input]

RISK MONITORING WORKFLOW

Five Risk Dimensions

DIMENSION 1: FINANCIAL RISK Monitor for:

• Revenue and profitability trend (from annual filings or reported results)
• Credit rating: any downgrade from Creditsafe / D&B / Experian
• Restructuring announcements, CVA, administration proceedings
• DSO trend: lengthening = cash pressure on the vendor
• Ownership changes: acquisition, MBO, private equity involvement
• Key customer losses announced
• Late filing of statutory accounts (itself a distress signal)

Sources: Companies House / SECP / equivalent registry; Creditsafe / D&B; trade press; web search MCP

Risk levels: RED HIGH: Restructuring / CVA / credit rating CCC or below / accounts overdue AMBER MEDIUM: Revenue decline >15% YoY; margin below 3%; rating downgrade 1 notch GREEN LOW: Stable financials; positive trend; adequate credit rating

DIMENSION 2: OPERATIONAL RISK Monitor from ERP data (updated continuously):

• OTD rate: 13-week rolling average + trend direction
• Quality rejection rate: 13-week rolling average + trend direction
• Lead time variance: increasing variance = capacity or process strain
• Missed delivery pattern: same day of week? Same product? (capacity signals)
• Partial deliveries increasing? (material shortage signal)

Risk levels: RED HIGH: OTD < configured critical threshold; quality > critical threshold AMBER MEDIUM: Declining trend even if above threshold; partial deliveries increasing GREEN LOW: Stable; above threshold; no adverse trend

DIMENSION 3: REGULATORY & COMPLIANCE RISK Monitor for:

• Certification expiry (ISO, sector-specific, data protection)
• Regulatory enforcement action (sector regulators, HSE, ICO)
• Environmental incidents (prosecution, fine, site closure risk)
• Trade compliance issues (export licence violations, customs irregularities)
• Sanctions list changes affecting the vendor or their key sub-suppliers

Risk levels: RED HIGH: Active sanctions match; enforcement action; certification lapsed AMBER MEDIUM: Certification expiring within 90 days; regulatory warning issued GREEN LOW: All certifications current; no adverse regulatory signals

DIMENSION 4: GEOPOLITICAL RISK Monitor for:

• Political instability in vendor's operating country
• Trade restrictions, tariffs, or export controls affecting category
• Currency volatility affecting contract economics
• Infrastructure disruption (port strikes, border closures, natural disaster)
• Conflict affecting supply routes

Sources: web search MCP; UK FCO travel advisories; trade association bulletins

Risk levels: RED HIGH: Active disruption to supply route or vendor operations AMBER MEDIUM: Elevated country risk; currency movement >5% since contract GREEN LOW: Stable environment; no material currency exposure

DIMENSION 5: TIER 2 / SUB-SUPPLIER RISK Monitor for:

• Financial distress at critical Tier 2 suppliers
• Tier 2 supplier capacity constraints affecting Tier 1 output
• Single-geography concentration at Tier 2 level
• Tier 2 supplier relationship with Tier 1 deteriorating

Requirement: Tier 2 mapping must exist for all Tier 1 Strategic vendors. If mapping does not exist: flag as UNASSESSED RISK; request Tier 2 data from Tier 1 supplier as priority action.

Risk Rating Change Rules

ESCALATE overall rating if ANY dimension reaches RED ELEVATE to MEDIUM-HIGH if TWO dimensions reach AMBER simultaneously REDUCE rating only after confirmed remediation (not just vendor assurance)

RISK BRIEF OUTPUT FORMAT

SUPPLIER RISK BRIEF: [Vendor Name]
Assessment date: [Date] | Next scheduled review: [Date]
================================================================
OVERALL RISK RATING: [GREEN LOW / AMBER MEDIUM / AMBER MEDIUM-HIGH / RED HIGH / RED CRITICAL]
Change since last review: [No change / Elevated / Reduced]

FINANCIAL RISK:   [GREEN / AMBER / RED] [Rating]
[Findings and signals with sources and dates]

OPERATIONAL RISK: [GREEN / AMBER / RED] [Rating]
[OTD trend, qual