/price-target-consensus

name: price-target-consensus
description: Retrieve consensus price targets for any stock using Octagon MCP. Use when you need the average, median, high, and low analyst price targets to evaluate upside/downside potential and analyst agreement.

Price Target Consensus

Retrieve consensus price target metrics including average, median, high, and low targets using the Octagon MCP server.

Prerequisites

Ensure Octagon MCP is configured in your AI agent (Cursor, Claude Desktop, Windsurf, etc.). See [references/mcp-setup.md](references/mcp-setup.md) for installation instructions.

Workflow

1. Identify the Stock

Determine the ticker symbol for the company you want to analyze (e.g., AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL).

2. Execute Query via Octagon MCP

Use the `octagon-agent` tool with a natural language prompt:

Retrieve consensus price targets for the stock symbol <TICKER>.

**MCP Call Format:**

{
  "server": "octagon-mcp",
  "toolName": "octagon-agent",
  "arguments": {
    "prompt": "Retrieve consensus price targets for the stock symbol AAPL."
  }
}

3. Expected Output

The agent returns consensus price target data:

| Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | Consensus Target | $303.11 | | Median Target | $315.00 | | Target High | $350.00 | | Target Low | $220.00 |

**Data Sources**: octagon-stock-data-agent

4. Interpret Results

See [references/interpreting-results.md](references/interpreting-results.md) for guidance on:

• Understanding consensus vs. median
• Analyzing the target range
• Calculating upside/downside
• Evaluating analyst agreement

Example Queries

**Basic Query:**

Retrieve consensus price targets for the stock symbol AAPL.

**With Price Context:**

What is the consensus price target for TSLA and how does it compare to current price?

**Range Focus:**

What are the highest and lowest analyst price targets for NVDA?

**Comparison:**

Compare consensus price targets for AAPL, MSFT, and GOOGL.

**Upside Analysis:**

What upside does the consensus target imply for AMZN?

Understanding the Metrics

Consensus Target

| Aspect | Description | |--------|-------------| | Definition | Average of all analyst targets | | Calculation | Sum of targets / Number of analysts | | Use | General market expectation | | Limitation | Skewed by outliers |

Median Target

| Aspect | Description | |--------|-------------| | Definition | Middle value of all targets | | Calculation | 50th percentile | | Use | Central tendency, outlier-resistant | | Advantage | Less affected by extremes |

Target High

| Aspect | Description | |--------|-------------| | Definition | Most bullish analyst target | | Represents | Best-case scenario | | Use | Maximum upside potential | | Caution | May be overly optimistic |

Target Low

| Aspect | Description | |--------|-------------| | Definition | Most bearish analyst target | | Represents | Worst-case scenario | | Use | Downside risk assessment | | Caution | May be overly pessimistic |

Calculating Potential

Upside/Downside Formulas

Consensus Upside = (Consensus Target - Current Price) / Current Price × 100%
Maximum Upside = (Target High - Current Price) / Current Price × 100%
Downside Risk = (Target Low - Current Price) / Current Price × 100%

Example Calculations

If AAPL trades at $270.01:

| Metric | Target | Potential | |--------|--------|-----------| | Consensus | $303.11 | +12.3% upside | | Median | $315.00 | +16.7% upside | | High | $350.00 | +29.6% upside | | Low | $220.00 | -18.5% downside |

Range Analysis

Spread Calculation

Range = Target High - Target Low
Spread % = Range / Consensus Target × 100%

Interpreting Spread

| Spread % | Interpretation | |----------|----------------| | <20% | Strong consensus | | 20-40% | Normal range | | 40-60% | Moderate disagreement | | >60% | High uncertainty |

Example Range Analysis

From AAPL data:

• High: $350.00
• Low: $220.00
• Range: $130.00
• Consensus: $303.11
• Spread: 42.9%

**Interpretation**: Moderate disagreement among analysts, with significant difference between bulls and bears.

Consensus vs. Median

When to Use Each

| Scenario | Prefer | |----------|--------| | Normal distribution | Consensus (average) | | Outliers present | Median | | Skewed targets | Median | | General expectation | Consensus |

Identifying Skew

| Condition | Indicates | |-----------|-----------| | Consensus > Median | Right skew (bullish outliers) | | Consensus < Median | Left skew (bearish outliers) | | Consensus ≈ Median | Symmetric distribution |

Example

From AAPL data:

• Consensus: $303.11
• Median: $315.00
• Consensus < Median → Left skew (some bearish outliers pulling average down)

Bull vs. Bear Cases

Understanding Extremes

| Target | Represents | |--------|------------| | High | Bull case assumptions | | Low | Bear case assumptions | | Gap | Range of outcomes |

Scenario Analysis

| Scenario | Assumptions | |----------|-------------| | Bull Case | Strong growth, expanding margins, favorable macro | | Base Case | Consensus expectations | | Bear Case | Challenges, competition, risks materialize |

Practical Applications

Investment Decision

| Finding | Consideration | |---------|---------------| | Price < Low Target | Potential deep value or concerns | | Price near Consensus | Fairly valued | | Price > High Target | Potentially overvalued |

Risk Assessment

| Metric | Use For | |--------|---------| | Downside to Low | Worst-case loss | | Upside to High | Best-case gain | | Risk/Reward | Low upside / High downside |

Position Sizing

| Consensus View | Position Approach | |----------------|-------------------| | Strong upside, tight range | Larger position | | Moderate upside, wide range | Standard position | | Limited upside, wide range | Smaller position |

Common Use Cases

Quick Valuation Check

Is AAPL fairly valued based on analyst