/prediction-markets-analysis

name: prediction-markets-analysis
description: Generate Kalshi prediction market research reports or fetch structured event history. Use when the user mentions Kalshi, prediction markets, market probability, expected return, or event history.

Prediction Markets Analysis

Use this skill for Kalshi event research and historical prediction market analysis.

When to use

• The user shares a Kalshi market URL
• The user wants a structured report on one prediction market event
• The user wants event history across snapshots or runs

Query format

Generate a report for the Kalshi market <KALSHI_URL>.

For structured history retrieval:

Fetch historical data for the Kalshi event ticker <EVENT_TICKER>.

MCP calls

Report generation:

{
  "server": "octagon-mcp",
  "toolName": "octagon-prediction-markets-agent",
  "arguments": {
    "prompt": "Generate a report for the Kalshi market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcy/btc-price-range-eoy/kxbtcy-27jan0100"
  }
}

Structured history:

{
  "server": "octagon-mcp",
  "toolName": "prediction_markets_history",
  "arguments": {
    "event_ticker": "KXBTCY-27JAN0100",
    "limit": 50,
    "include_analysis": true
  }
}

Tool selection rules

• Use `octagon-prediction-markets-agent` for analyst-style reports
• Use `prediction_markets_history` for structured history, pagination, or time filtering
• If the user wants guaranteed fresh data, set `cache` to `false`

Output expectations

• Compare model probability to market probability
• Highlight edge, expected return, and risk factors
• Surface missing Kalshi URL immediately when absent

Follow-up prompts

• "Refresh the report instead of using cache."
• "Show the event history with analysis included."
• "Summarize the largest drivers of divergence between model and market."