/asset-allocation

name: asset-allocation
description: "Determine how to distribute capital across asset classes using strategic and tactical allocation frameworks. Use when the user asks about portfolio allocation, mean-variance optimization, Black-Litterman, risk parity, glide paths, or target-date strategies. Also trigger when users mention 'how much in stocks vs bonds', '60/40 portfolio', 'policy portfolio', 'core-satellite', 'liability-driven investing', 'asset-liability matching', or ask how to split their money across investments."

Asset Allocation

Core Concepts

Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA)

The long-term policy portfolio based on an investor's risk tolerance, return objectives, time horizon, and constraints. SAA determines the baseline target weights (e.g., 60% equity / 30% bonds / 10% alternatives) and is the dominant driver of long-term portfolio returns. SAA should be revisited when investor circumstances change, not in response to market movements.

Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA)

Short-to-medium-term deviations from the SAA based on market views, valuations, or momentum signals. TAA requires a disciplined process to avoid becoming ad hoc market timing. Key considerations:

• Define allowable deviation bands (e.g., +/- 10% from SAA)
• Have a clear signal framework (valuation, momentum, macro)
• Set reversion rules: when to return to SAA weights

Mean-Variance Optimization (MVO)

Markowitz's framework for finding optimal portfolio weights that maximize risk-adjusted return:

max w'*mu - (lambda/2) * w'*Sigma*w

subject to: sum(w_i) = 1, w_i >= 0 (if long-only), and any additional constraints.

Where:

• w = weight vector
• mu = expected return vector
• Sigma = covariance matrix
• lambda = risk aversion parameter

MVO requires three inputs: expected returns, the covariance matrix, and risk aversion. The solution is highly sensitive to expected return inputs.

Black-Litterman Model

Combines market equilibrium returns with investor views to produce more stable, intuitive portfolio weights. Two-step process:

**Step 1 — Implied Equilibrium Returns:** Pi = lambda * Sigma * w_mkt

where w_mkt is the market-capitalization weight vector, lambda is the risk aversion parameter, and Sigma is the covariance matrix. These are the returns the market implicitly expects given current prices.

**Step 2 — Blending with Views:** E(R) = [(tau*Sigma)^(-1) + P'*Omega^(-1)*P]^(-1) * [(tau*Sigma)^(-1)*Pi + P'*Omega^(-1)*Q]

where:

• tau = scalar (uncertainty of equilibrium, typically 0.025-0.05)
• P = pick matrix (identifies assets in each view)
• Q = view vector (expected returns from views)
• Omega = diagonal matrix of view uncertainties

The result is a posterior expected return vector that tilts away from equilibrium toward the investor's views, proportional to confidence.

Risk Parity

Equalizes the risk contribution from each asset (or factor) rather than equalizing capital allocation:

RC_i = w_i * (Sigma*w)_i / sigma_p

Set RC_i = RC_j for all i, j.

In a simple two-asset case with no correlation: w_i is proportional to 1/sigma_i

Risk parity portfolios allocate more capital to lower-volatility assets (typically bonds) and often require leverage to achieve competitive return targets.

Glide Path

An age-based or time-based allocation that systematically shifts from growth assets to defensive assets as the investor ages or the target date approaches:

Common rule of thumb: Equity % = 110 - Age

Target-date fund glide paths typically:

• Start at 90% equity for young investors
• Decrease by ~1-2% per year
• Reach 30-40% equity at retirement
• Continue to "through" allocation post-retirement

Core-Satellite

A hybrid approach combining:

• **Core (60-80%):** Low-cost, broadly diversified index funds or ETFs
• **Satellites (20-40%):** Active strategies, factor tilts, alternatives, or concentrated positions

This structure captures the market return efficiently (core) while allowing alpha generation or specific exposures (satellites).

Asset-Liability Matching

For investors with defined liabilities (pensions, insurance, endowments with spending rules):

• Match asset duration and cash flows to liability duration and timing
• Surplus optimization: optimize the portfolio relative to liabilities, not absolute return
• Liability-driven investing (LDI): hedge liability risk with duration-matched bonds, invest surplus in return-seeking assets

Key Formulas

| Formula | Expression | Use Case | |---------|-----------|----------| | MVO Objective | max w'*mu - (lambda/2)*w'*Sigma*w | Optimal portfolio weights | | Equilibrium Returns | Pi = lambda * Sigma * w_mkt | Black-Litterman starting point | | BL Posterior | E(R) = [(tau*Sigma)^(-1) + P'*Omega^(-1)*P]^(-1) * [(tau*Sigma)^(-1)*Pi + P'*Omega^(-1)*Q] | Blended expected returns | | Risk Contribution | RC_i = w_i * (Sigma*w)_i / sigma_p | Risk parity target | | Risk Parity Condition | RC_i = RC_j for all i, j | Equal risk contribution | | Glide Path Rule | Equity % = 110 - Age | Age-based allocation |

Worked Examples

Example 1: Three-Asset Mean-Variance Optimization

**Given:**

• Assets: US Equity (mu=8%, sigma=16%), Int'l Equity (mu=7%, sigma=18%), US Bonds (mu=3%, sigma=4%)
• Correlations: US/Intl Equity = 0.75, US Equity/Bonds = 0.10, Intl Equity/Bonds = 0.05
• Risk aversion: lambda = 4
• Constraints: long-only, fully invested

**Calculate:** Optimal weights

**Solution:**

Covariance matrix:

• Cov(US,US) = 0.16^2 = 0.0256
• Cov(Intl,Intl) = 0.18^2 = 0.0324
• Cov(Bond,Bond) = 0.04^2 = 0.0016
• Cov(US,Intl) = 0.75 * 0.16 * 0.18 = 0.0216
• Cov(US,Bond) = 0.10 * 0.16 * 0.04 = 0.00064
• Cov(Intl,Bond) = 0.05 * 0.18 * 0.04 = 0.00036

MVO with lambda=4 (solving numerically or via quadratic programming):

Optimal weights (long-only):

• US Equity: 51.9%
• Int'l Equity: 0%
• US Bonds: 48.1%

Portfolio: expected return = 5.60%, volatility = 8.71%

Note: International equity is driven to zero — it is highly correlated with US equit