/dcf

description: Build a DCF valuation model with comps-informed terminal multiples
argument-hint: "[company name or ticker]"

DCF Valuation Command

Build an institutional-quality DCF model that uses comparable company analysis to inform valuation ranges.

Workflow

Step 1: Gather Company Information

If a company name or ticker is provided, use it. Otherwise ask:

• "What company would you like to value?"

Step 2: Run Comparable Company Analysis

**First, load the comps-analysis skill** to build trading comps:

Use `skill: "comps-analysis"` to: 1. Identify 4-6 comparable public companies 2. Pull operating metrics (Revenue, EBITDA, margins, growth) 3. Pull valuation multiples (EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA, P/E) 4. Calculate statistical summary (median, 25th/75th percentiles)

**Key outputs to capture from comps:**

• Median EV/EBITDA multiple → informs terminal value exit multiple
• Median EV/Revenue multiple → sanity check on DCF output
• Peer growth rates → benchmark for revenue projections
• Peer margins → benchmark for margin assumptions

Step 3: Build DCF Model

**Load the dcf-model skill** to construct the valuation:

Use `skill: "dcf-model"` to: 1. Gather historical financials and market data 2. Build revenue projections (Bear/Base/Bull cases) 3. Model operating expenses and FCF 4. Calculate WACC using CAPM 5. Discount cash flows and calculate terminal value 6. Bridge to equity value and implied share price

**Use comps to inform DCF assumptions:**

| Comps Output | DCF Input | |--------------|-----------| | Peer median EV/EBITDA | Terminal exit multiple range | | Peer 25th-75th EV/EBITDA | Sensitivity analysis range | | Peer median growth rate | Benchmark for revenue assumptions | | Peer median EBITDA margin | Target margin in terminal year | | Peer median P/E | Cross-check implied P/E from DCF |

Step 4: Cross-Check Valuation

After DCF is complete, validate: 1. **Implied EV/EBITDA** from DCF vs peer median

• If DCF implies 25x but peers trade at 12x, investigate why

2. **Implied P/E** from DCF vs peer median 3. **Terminal value as % of EV** (should be 50-70%) 4. **Implied growth** embedded in valuation vs peer growth rates

Step 5: Deliver Output

Provide: 1. **Comps analysis spreadsheet** (.xlsx) with peer trading multiples 2. **DCF model** (.xlsx) with:

• Bear/Base/Bull scenarios
• Sensitivity tables (WACC vs Terminal Growth, etc.)
• Valuation summary with implied upside/downside

3. **Summary** explaining:

• Key valuation drivers
• How comps informed the analysis
• Risks and sensitivities to watch

Example Output Summary

VALUATION SUMMARY: [Company] ([Ticker])

Comparable Companies Analysis:
- Peer Group: [List of 4-6 comps]
- Median EV/EBITDA: 12.5x (range: 10.2x - 15.8x)
- Median EV/Revenue: 3.2x (range: 2.1x - 4.5x)

DCF Valuation (Base Case):
- Implied Share Price: $XX.XX
- Current Price: $YY.YY
- Implied Upside: +XX%

Valuation Cross-Check:
- DCF Implied EV/EBITDA: 13.2x (vs peer median 12.5x)
- DCF Implied P/E: 22.4x (vs peer median 20.1x)
- Terminal Value: 62% of EV (within normal range)

Key Assumptions:
- Revenue CAGR: X% (vs peer median X%)
- Terminal EBITDA Margin: X% (vs peer median X%)
- WACC: X.X%
- Terminal Growth: X.X%